Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Allen C, Metternicht G, Wiedmann T (2016) National pathways to the sustainable development goals (SDGs): a comparative review of scenario modelling tools. Environ Sci Pol 66:199–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.09.008
Anenberg SC, Balakrishnan K, Jetter J et al (2013) Cleaner cooking solutions to achieve health, climate, and economic cobenefits. Environ Sci Technol 47:3944–3952
Bongaarts J (2011) Can family planning programs reduce high desired family size in sub-Saharan Africa? Int Perspect Sex Reprod Health 37:209–216. https://doi.org/10.1363/3720911
Bygbjerg I (2012) Double burden of noncommunicable and infectious diseases in developing countries. Science 337:1499–1501
Castles S (2013) The forces driving global migration. J Intercult Stud 34:122–140. https://doi.org/10.1080/07256868.2013.781916
Crespo Cuaresma J (2017) Income projections for climate change research: a framework based on human capital dynamics. Glob Environ Chang 42:226–236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.012
Crespo Cuaresma J, Lutz W (2015) The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: a projection exercise. Vienna Yearbook Populat Res 13:241–261
Dellink R, Chateau J, Lanzi E, Magné B (2017) Long-term economic growth projections in the shared socioeconomic pathways. Glob Environ Chang 42:200–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004
Ebi KL, Hasegawa T, Hayes K et al (2018) Health risks of warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and higher, above pre-industrial temperatures. Environ Res Lett 13:063007
EPA (2013) United States Environmental Protection Agency, 78 FR 3085
Foreman KJ, Marquez N, Dolgert A et al (2018) Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories. Lancet 392:2052–2090
Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M et al (2015) Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 386:369–375
Gerland P, Raftery AE, Ševčíková H et al (2014) World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science 346:234. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1257469
Hales S, Kovats S, Lloyd SJ, Campbell-Lendrum D (2014) Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s. WHO Press, Geneva
Hasegawa T, Fujimori S, Takahashi K et al (2016) Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment. Clim Chang 136:189–202. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1606-4
Hess JJ, Ebi KL (2016) Iterative management of heat early warning systems in a changing climate. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1382:21–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13258
Howard G, Calow R, Macdonald A, Bartram J (2016) Climate change and water and sanitation: likely impacts and emerging trends for action. Annu Rev Environ Resour 41:253–276
Hughes B, Kuhn R, Peterson CM et al (2011) Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the international futures integrated forecasting model. Bull World Health Organ 89:478–486
Hughes B, Peterson CM, Rothman DS, Solorzano JR (2014) IFs health model documentation. Pardee Center for International Futures, Denver
IPCC (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jerneck A, Olsson L (2013) A smoke-free kitchen: initiating community based co-production for cleaner cooking and cuts in carbon emissions. J Clean Prod 60:208–215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2012.09.026
Jiang L, O’Neill BC (2017) Global urbanization projections for the shared socioeconomic pathways. Glob Environ Chang 42:193–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.008
KC S, Lutz W (2017) The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Glob Environ Chang 42:181–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004
Keim ME (2008) Building human resilience: the role of public health preparedness and response as an adaptation to climate change. Am J Prev Med 35:508–516
Kuhn R, Rothman DS, Turner S et al (2016) Beyond attributable burden: estimating the avoidable burden of disease associated with household air pollution. PLoS One:11
Landrigan PJ, Fuller R, Acosta NJR et al (2018) The Lancet Commission on pollution and health. Lancet 391:462–512. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32345-0
Lass W, Haas A, Hinkel J, Jaeger C (2011) Avoiding the avoidable: towards a European heat waves risk governance. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 2:1–14
Lloyd SJ, Kovats RS, Chalabi Z (2011) Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition. Environ Health Perspect 119:1817–1823
Lutz W, Butz WP, KC S (eds) (2014a) World population and human capital in the twenty-first century. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Lutz W, KC S (2011) World population and human capital in the twenty-first century. Science 333:587–592. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1206964
Lutz W, Muttarak R, Striessnig E (2014b) Universal education is key to enhanced climate adaptation. Science 346:1061–1062
Markandya A, Sampedro J, Smith SJ et al (2018) Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study. Lancet Planetary Health 2:e126–e133
Marmot M (2005) Social determinants of health inequalities. Lancet 365:1099–1104. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(05)71146-6
Mathers CD, Loncar D (2006) Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Med 3:e442
Mathers CD, Loncar D (2005) Updated projections of global mortality and burden of disease, 2002–2030: data sources, methods and results. World Health Organization, Geneva
O’Neill BC, Kriegler E, Ebi KL et al (2017) The roads ahead: narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Glob Environ Chang 42:169–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004
Orman AR (2005) The epidemiologic transition: a theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Quarter 83:731–757. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0009.2005.00398.x
Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH et al (2018) Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 392:1736–1788. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7
Sellers S, Ebi KL (2018) Climate change and health under the shared socioeconomic pathway framework. Int J Environ Res Public Health 15:3
Shaffer R, Sellers S, Baker MG et al (2019) Improving and expanding estimates of the global burden of disease due to environmental health risk factors. Environ Health Perspect 127:105001
Stanaway JD, Afshin A, Gakidou E et al (2018) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 392:1923–1994. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31
van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E, O’Neill BC et al (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture. Clim Chang 122:373–386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1
Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N et al (2019) The 2019 report of the Lancet countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate. Lancet 394:1836–1878. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6
Wheeler T, von Braun J (2013) Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341:508. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1239402
World Bank (2018) World development indicators 2018, Washington DC