Beyond the Cold Hit: Measuring the Impact of the National DNA Data Bank on Public Safety at the City and County Level

Bratton, 1998, Turnaround: How America's Top Cop Reversed the Crime Epidemic, 233

27. For the ASAP program, sexual assault “best evidence” items were submitted to the California Bureau of Forensic Services (BFS) for limited biological screening and immediate DNA analysis; items were tested with the goal of obtaining a foreign, male DNA profile within 72 hours post-assault.

2. Willing, R. , “Many DNA Matches Aren't Acted On,” USA Today, November 21, 2006, available at <http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2006-11-20-dna-matches_x.htm> (last visited May 11, 2010).

14. San Francisco Drug Court and the more recent Behavioral Health Court allow San Francisco judges to offer rehabilitative services, and potential expungement of arrests, to non-violent offenders. For more information, see Knight, H. , “Special Court in S.F. Offers Hope and Help to Those Short on Both,” The San Francisco Chronicle, November 13, 2007, available at <http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/11/13/MN3ST0DCQ.DTL&type> (last visited May 14, 2010).

Holt, 2004, “Rebuilding Cold Cases: Laboratory, Investigative and Legal Issues,”

Ritter, 2008, “DNA Solves Property Crimes (But Are We Ready for That?),”, National Institute of Justice Journal, 261, 2

7. As of this writing, nearly 300 DNA cold hits have been obtained for SFPD criminal investigations. A participating laboratory of the National DNA Index System (NDIS) since 2001, the San Francisco Police Department Forensic Biology Unit receives less than 10% of the total DNA database hits within California and has benefitted greatly from CODIS; the overwhelming majority of the cold cases had no known suspect(s) at the time of DNA testing. For those cases with “possible” named suspects, if CODIS confirmed identification of the individual(s) in question, the hits were categorized as “warm hits.”

19. One should note that only California criminal histories were analyzed in this study. Several offenders also have criminal records in neighboring states; these data were not analyzed.

20. Offenses in Figure 2 were placed in the general categories as described. Offenses and not individual arrests were measured. For example, if an individual was arrested for kidnapping, sexual assault, and robbery, then this arrest was counted as three distinct offenses. However, if an individual was charged with multiple sexual acts in one assault (e.g., oral copulation, sodomy, rape by force), then only a single sexual offense was tallied. The authors recognize that criminal history data entries may not be complete. General trends were noted when data were inadequate to provide more accurate accounting.

28. Only ASAP cold hits obtained before 2007 were included in this study.

Cook, 2005, “Criminal Records of Homicide Offenders,”, JAMA, 294, 598, 10.1001/jama.294.5.598

34. A recent proposal for wholesale DNA testing is available at <http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2009/04/ab_1017_would_s.html>; Tofte, S. , “Justice for rape victims: Don't ignore evidence,” San Francisco Chronicle, June 24, 2009, available at <http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/23/ED9R18BJ6R.DTL>.

Wickenheiser, 2004, “The Business Case for Using Forensic DNA Technology to Solve and Prevent Crime,”, Journal of Bio-law and Business, 7, 34

13. While judicial resolution is not expected in every case, the number of cases without legal filing may be somewhat inflated as many of these cold hits were generated for DNA cases in accumulated backlogs (from 1995-2004) such that complicating factors may have been introduced disproportionately by wholesale DNA testing. For property crimes, an understanding of filing thresholds and cooperation with SFDA's Office was obtained prior to program implementation. Refer to Discussion points for additional information.

Bieber, 2006, “Finding Criminals through DNA of Their Relatives,”, Science, 312, 1315, 10.1126/science.1122655

22. As many of the DNA cold hits described here have only recently reached case resolution, the authors could not measure future “time to crime” estimates. In other words, after the prisoners' release for crimes with a DNA cold hit, a future study to understand recidivism rates might shed light on long-term CODIS impact.

Groth, 1982, “Undetected Recidivism among Rapists and Child Molesters,”, Crime and Delinquency, 28, 450, 10.1177/001112878202800305

33. U.S. database laws are sometimes propelled by victim advocates affected by violent crimes. In California, a campaign led by Mr. Bruce Harrington, whose brother was a victim of murder, resulted in the November 2004 amendment of the California Penal Code Sections 295-300 to make California one of the first "all felon" and "felon arrestee" state databases. These efforts resulted in a rise in the convicted offender population from ~300,000 to more than 1 million DNA profiles in less than three years. Other victim advocates, such as Mrs. Debbie Smith, have undertaken similar challenges to raise awareness for the DNA Data Bank to strive for database expansion. In 2004, the Debbie Smith Act was signed into law as part of the federal Justice for All Act. H.R. 5107, Public Law 108-405, available at <http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/ovc/publications/factshts/justforall/welcome.html> (last visited May 11, 2010)

California Penal Code Sections 295-300.2, November 3, 2004 Amendment.

35. Strategic Plan to Improve Forensic DNA Policy in Florida, 2008: at 5 This plan states as one objective to: “Improve laboratory efficiency by training local law enforcement agencies to select and submit best evidence rather than all evidence for analysis.” (Strategic plan prepared by Florida Department of Law Enforcement stakeholders in response to the National Governors Association Center for Best Practices Improving Forensic DNA Policy Project.) The entire report is available at <http://www.nga.org/Files/pdf/0810FLORIDADNAPLAN.PDF> (last visited May 11, 2010). And, the National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center (NLECTC)-Southeast seeks to “develop best evidence policies, which will minimize the over submission of samples by prioritization of samples based on expected success rate.” Solving Property Crimes with DNA,” TECHBeat (Winter 2009): at 2. Additional information related to this study is available at: <http://www.justnet.org/TechBeat%20Files/SolvingCrimesDNA.pdf> (last visited May 11, 2010).

1. FBI, “CODIS NDIS Statistics,” available at <http://www.fbi.gov/hq/lab/codis/clickmap.htm> (last visited May 11, 2010).

Chakraborty, 2009, “Statistical Weight of a DNA Match in Cold-Hit Cases,”, Forensic Science Communications, 11, 1

40. Lockyer, B. , 2003 California Task Force on Forensic Services Report, 2003, at 5; the full report is available at <http://www.ag.ca.gov/publications/#forensic> (last visited May 11, 2010).

8. Under the California Office of Criminal Justice Planning (OCJP) DNA Cold Hit Grant, wholesale DNA testing of more than 600 backlogged sexual assaults and homicides with sexual components were analyzed; DNA profiles suitable for CODIS upload were generated in several hundred cases.

31. A study of current practices for supervision of probationers and parolees and their interaction with criminal courts may identify some underlying causes for continued violence during and after probationary periods. Improvements in these areas could reduce the need for repeated CODIS assistance to identify the same individuals.

4. As of the writing of this manuscript, “hit counting” is performed by the crime laboratories not by the police investigators, the district attorneys or the courts who ultimately determine the meaningfulness of database hits. Quite possibly, the impact of a hit is best measured in asking, “Did this DNA database hit increase public safety?”

5. The SFPD Forensic Services Division provides scientific support for criminal investigations of a metropolitan area with a resident population of ~800,000.

24. Dateline NBC, “The Santa Strangler,” available at <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25142725/page/1> (last visited May 11, 2010); information related to Laudenberg's request for an appellate court review is available at <http://www.dailybreeze.com/ci_10742547> (last visited October 22, 2009).

Willis, 2009, “Assessment of Community Reintegration Planning for Sex Offenders: Poor Planning Predicts Recidivism,”, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 36, 494, 10.1177/0093854809332874

11. “Other” incidents are reported as a group and include juvenile sexual assault, felony gun possession, robbery, and other violent assaults.

23. Data for homicide offenders Speer, Laudenberg, and Puckett were only included in Table 1.

6. California's DNA Cold Hit Program provided funding for local laboratories to reduce DNA backlogs in sex crimes and homicides with a sexual component by conducting wholesale typing of unsolved cases. The property crimes and ASAP programs introduced a more comprehensive case review and sample evaluation prior to laboratory analysis. ASAP and property crimes testing utilize a proactive approach to the Data Bank for identification of out-of-custody perpetrators.

41. The second version of California's Cold Hit Outcome Project (CHOP2) will hopefully make some initial strides as a model for state-wide cold hit tracking; however, such a system must surpass the data management solutions already in place in local agencies or accommodate data generated by the disparate systems currently used for laboratory case management without additional burden to the local labs or unreasonable workflow alterations. Due to the critical need for Cold Case Units to utilize real-time data sharing through automated case tracking databases, many laboratories are developing ‘home grown’ or other software-based solutions. The SFPD Forensic Services Division was recently awarded more than $1 million under NIJ's 2008 Efficiency Improvement Grant to develop a multi-agency, web-based DNA Cold Case Tracking module within a larger Forensic Case Management System.

42. Speedy trial motions are referred to as Jones motions (United States v. Jones 811 F.2d 1505 86–5114 (4th Cir. 1981); admissibility hearings to determine if proper DNA testing procedures are utilized follow the third prong of Frye v. United States, 293 F. 1013 (D.C. Cir. 1923) in San Francisco.

21. Past prior acts may affect sentencing guidelines in these instances and have led to more significant criminal interruption.

Gabriel, 2008, “Shifting Bottlenecks: From Sample Processing to Data Management,”

McCleary, 1992, Dangerous Men: The Sociology of Parole

25. Van Derbeken, J. , “Sex offender, 74, Convicted in 1972 Murder,” San Francisco Chronicle,” February 22, 2008, available at <http://articles.sfgate.com/2008-02-22/bay-area/17142079_1_sexual-assault-offender-john-puckett> (last visited May 20, 2010).

10. The main objectives of the Property Crimes program are (1) rapid DNA analysis and (2) high percentage of perpetrator identifications. “Best evidence” includes Category 1 items such as blood, saliva, cigarette butts, and drinking containers; Category 2 items include articles of clothing, eyeglasses, etc.; Category 3 or “contact DNA” items include samples from door handles and burglary tools, etc.

12. Cold hits were obtained in Homicide, Sex Crimes, Burglary, Robbery, Juvenile, General Work, Gang Task Force, and Night Investigations. Since 2006, cold hits have also occurred in the Hit and Run and Fencing Details.

Bieber, 2006, “Turning Base Hits into Earned Runs: Improving the Effectiveness of Forensic DNA Data Bank Programs,”, Journal of Law, Medicine and Ethics, 34, 222, 10.1111/j.1748-720X.2006.00029.x

17. For this group of offenders (Felons #1–12 and ten randomly chosen burglars), arrests occurred in the California counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Merced, Monterey, Sacramento, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, and Solano.

37. See Ritter, , supra note 16. The NIJ report also states investigators were roughly 2.5 times less likely to solve property crimes cases when biological evidence was not available. Coincidentally, even when arrests were made in cases without DNA evidence, 50% less cases were charged by district attorneys. Due to the strength of DNA evidence, trends to present such testing to jurors in the majority of instances or the “CSI effect” are increasing, regardless of whether DNA information is crucial to establish elements of the case.