Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites

Biogeosciences - Tập 15 Số 11 - Trang 3421-3437
Donghai Wu1, Philippe Ciais2, Nicolas Viovy2, Alan K. Knapp3, Kevin R. Wilcox4, Michael Bahn5, Melinda D. Smith3, Sara Vicca6, Simone Fatichi7, Jakob Zscheischler8, Yue He1, Xiangyi Li1, Akihiko Ito9, Almut Arneth10, Anna Harper11, Anna Ukkola12, Athanasios Paschalis13, Benjamin Poulter14, Changhui Peng15,16, D. M. Ricciuto17, David Reinthaler5, Guangsheng Chen18, Hanqin Tian18, Hélène Genet19, Jiafu Mao17, Johannes Ingrisch5, Julia E. M. S. Nabel20, Julia Pongratz20, Lena Boysen20, Markus Kautz10, Michael Schmitt5, Patrick Meir21,22, Qiuan Zhu16, Roland Hasibeder5, Sebastian Sippel23, Shree R. S. Dangal18,24, Stephen Sitch25, Xiaoying Shi17, Ying‐Ping Wang26, Yiqi Luo27,4, Yongwen Liu1, Shilong Piao1
1Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-Sur-Yvette 91191, France
3Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
4Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA
5Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
6Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium
7Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
8Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
9National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
10Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
11College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
12ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW 2052, Australia
13Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
14NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
15Institute of Environment Sciences, Biology Science Department, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montréal H3C 3P8, Québec, Canada
16State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
17Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6301, USA
18International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA.
19Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA
20Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
21Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
22School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK
23Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, 1431 Ås, Norway
24Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts 02540-1644, USA
25College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
26CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, PMB 1, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia
27Center for Ecosystem Sciences and Society, Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA

Tóm tắt

Abstract. Field measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest that both positive and negative asymmetric responses to changes in precipitation (P) may occur. Under normal range of precipitation variability, wet years typically result in ANPP gains being larger than ANPP declines in dry years (positive asymmetry), whereas increases in ANPP are lower in magnitude in extreme wet years compared to reductions during extreme drought (negative asymmetry). Whether the current generation of ecosystem models with a coupled carbon–water system in grasslands are capable of simulating these asymmetric ANPP responses is an unresolved question. In this study, we evaluated the simulated responses of temperate grassland primary productivity to scenarios of altered precipitation with 14 ecosystem models at three sites: Shortgrass steppe (SGS), Konza Prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU), spanning a rainfall gradient from dry to moist. We found that (1) the spatial slopes derived from modeled primary productivity and precipitation across sites were steeper than the temporal slopes obtained from inter-annual variations, which was consistent with empirical data; (2) the asymmetry of the responses of modeled primary productivity under normal inter-annual precipitation variability differed among models, and the mean of the model ensemble suggested a negative asymmetry across the three sites, which was contrary to empirical evidence based on filed observations; (3) the mean sensitivity of modeled productivity to rainfall suggested greater negative response with reduced precipitation than positive response to an increased precipitation under extreme conditions at the three sites; and (4) gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) all showed concave-down nonlinear responses to altered precipitation in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. Our results indicated that most models overestimate the negative drought effects and/or underestimate the positive effects of increased precipitation on primary productivity under normal climate conditions, highlighting the need for improving eco-hydrological processes in those models in the future.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Bahn, M., Knapp, M., Garajova, Z., Pfahringer, N., and Cernusca, A.: Root respiration in temperate mountain grasslands differing in land use, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 995–1006, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01144.x, 2006.

Bahn, M., Rodeghiero, M., Anderson-Dunn, M., Dore, S., Gimeno, C., Drösler, M., Williams, M., Ammann, C., Berninger, F., and Flechard, C.: Soil respiration in European grasslands in relation to climate and assimilate supply, Ecosystems, 11, 1352–1367, https://doi.org/10.1007/S10021-008-9198-0, 2008.

Bai, Y., Wu, J., Xing, Q., Pan, Q., Huang, J., Yang, D., and Han, X.: Primary production and rain use efficiency across a precipitation gradient on the Mongolia plateau, Ecology, 89, 2140–2153, https://doi.org/10.1890/07-0992.1, 2008.

Beer, C., Reichstein, M., Tomelleri, E., Ciais, P., Jung, M., Carvalhais, N., Rödenbeck, C., Arain, M. A., Baldocchi, D., Bonan, G. B., Bondeau, A., Cescatti, A., Lasslop, G., Lindroth, A., Lomas, M., Luyssaert, S., Margolis, H., Oleson, K. W., Roupsard, O., Veenendaal, E., Viovy, N., Williams, C., Woodward, F. I., and Papale, D.: Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate, Science, 329, 834–838, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184984, 2010.

Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Clark, D. B., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Ménard, C. B., Edwards, J. M., Hendry, M. A., Porson, A., Gedney, N., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Cox, P. M., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Harding, R. J.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011.

Bondeau, A., Smith, P. C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., and Reichstein, M.: Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 679–706, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x, 2007.

Briggs, J. M., Knapp, A. K., Blair, J. M., Heisler, J. L., Hoch, G. A., Lett, M. S., and McCarron, J. K.: An ecosystem in transition: causes and consequences of the conversion of mesic grassland to shrubland, BioScience, 55, 243–254, https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0243:AEITCA]2.0.CO;2, 2005.

Chapin III, F. S., Matson, P. A., and Vitousek, P.: Principles of terrestrial ecosystem ecology, Springer Science & Business Media, New York, 2011.

Chou, W. W., Silver, W. L., Jackson, R. D., Thompson, A. W., and Allen-Diaz, B.: The sensitivity of annual grassland carbon cycling to the quantity and timing of rainfall, Glob. Change Biol., 14, 1382–1394, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01572.x, 2008.

Clark, D. B., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Jones, C. D., Gedney, N., Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Harding, R. J., Huntingford, C., and Cox, P. M.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011, 2011.

Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., Ogorman, P. A., and Maher, N.: More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions, Nature Clim. Change, 6, 508–513, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2941, 2016.

Estiarte, M., Vicca, S., Peñuelas, J., Bahn, M., Beier, C., Emmett, B. A., Fay, P. A., Hanson, P. J., Hasibeder, R., Kigel, J., Kröel-Dulay, G., Larsen, K. S., Lellei-Kovács, E., Limousin, J.-M., Ogaya, R., Ourcival, J.-M., Reinsch, S., Sala, O. E., Schmidt, I. K., Sternberg, M., Tielbörger, K., Tietema, A., and Janssens, I. A.: Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship, Glob. Change Biol., 22, 2570–2581, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13269, 2016.

Fan, Y., Miguez-Macho, G., Jobbágy, E. G., Jackson, R. B., and Otero-Casal, C.: Hydrologic regulation of plant rooting depth, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 10572–10577, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1712381114, 2017.

Fatichi, S. and Ivanov, V. Y.: Interannual variability of evapotranspiration and vegetation productivity, Water Resour. Res., 50, 3275–3294, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR015044, 2014.

Fatichi, S., Ivanov, V., and Caporali, E.: A mechanistic ecohydrological model to investigate complex interactions in cold and warm water-controlled environments: 1. Theoretical framework and plot-scale analysis, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 4, 1–31, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS000086, 2012.

Fatichi, S., Leuzinger, S., Paschalis, A., Langley, J. A., Donnellan Barraclough, A., and Hovenden, M. J.: Partitioning direct and indirect effects reveals the response of water-limited ecosystems to elevated CO2, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 12757–12762, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1605036113, 2016.

Fischer, E. M. and Knutti, R.: Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models, Nature Clim. Change, 6, 986–991, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3110, 2016.

Gerten, D., Luo, Y., Le Maire, G., Parton, W. J., Keough, C., Weng, E., Beier, C., Ciais, P., Cramer, W., Dukes, J. S., Hanson, P. J., Knapp, A. A. K., Linder, S., Nepstad, D. A. N., Rustad, L., and Sowerby, A.: Modelled effects of precipitation on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones, Glob. Change Biol., 14, 2365–2379, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01651.x, 2008.

Gherardi, L. A. and Sala, O. E.: Enhanced precipitation variability decreases grass-and increases shrub-productivity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 12735–12740, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1506433112, 2015.

Gutschick, V. P. and BassiriRad, H.: Extreme events as shaping physiology, ecology, and evolution of plants: toward a unified definition and evaluation of their consequences, New Phytol., 160, 21–42, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1469-8137.2003.00866.x, 2003.

Heisler-White, J. L., Blair, J. M., Kelly, E. F., Harmoney, K., and Knapp, A. K.: Contingent productivity responses to more extreme rainfall regimes across a grassland biome, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 2894–2904, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01961.x, 2009.

Hoover, D. and Rogers, B.: Not all droughts are created equal: the impacts of interannual drought pattern and magnitude on grassland carbon cycling, Glob. Change Biol., 22, 1809–1820, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13161, 2016.

Hoover, D. L., Knapp, A. K., and Smith, M. D.: Resistance and resilience of a grassland ecosystem to climate extremes, Ecology, 95, 2646–2656, https://doi.org/10.1890/13-2186.1, 2014.

Hsu, J. S., Powell, J., and Adler, P. B.: Sensitivity of mean annual primary production to precipitation, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 2246–2255, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02687.x, 2012.

Huxman, T. E., Smith, M. D., Fay, P. A., Knapp, A. K., Shaw, M. R., Loik, M. E., Smith, S. D., Tissue, D. T., Zak, J. C., Weltzin, J. F., Pockman, W. T., Sala, O. E., Haddad, B. M., Harte, J., Koch, G. W., Schwinning, S., Small, E. E., and Williams, D. G.: Convergence across biomes to a common rain-use efficiency, Nature, 429, 651–654, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02561, 2004.

Inatomi, M., Ito, A., Ishijima, K., and Murayama, S.: Greenhouse gas budget of a cool-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest in Japan estimated using a process-based model, Ecosystems, 13, 472–483, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-010-9332-7, 2010.

Ingrisch, J., Karlowsky, S., Anadon-Rosell, A., Hasibeder, R., König, A., Augusti, A., Gleixner, G., and Bahn, M.: Land Use Alters the Drought Responses of Productivity and CO2 Fluxes in Mountain Grassland, Ecosystems, 21, 689–703, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0178-0, 2017.

Ito, A.: Evaluation of the impacts of defoliation by tropical cyclones on a Japanese forest's carbon budget using flux data and a process-based model, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 115, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JG001314, 2010.

Jung, M., Reichstein, M., Schwalm, C. R., Huntingford, C., Sitch, S., Ahlström, A., Arneth, A., Camps-Valls, G., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Gans, F., Ichii, K., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Papale, D., Poulter, B., Raduly, B., Rödenbeck, C., Tramontana, G., Viovy, N., Wang, Y.-P., Weber, U., Zaehle, S.,<span id="page3435"/> and Zeng, N.: Compensatory water effects link yearly global land CO2 sink changes to temperature, Nature, 541, 516–520, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20780, 2017.

Kaminski, T., Knorr, W., Schürmann, G., Scholze, M., Rayner, P., Zaehle, S., Blessing, S., Dorigo, W., Gayler, V., and Giering, R.: The BETHY/JSBACH carbon cycle data assimilation system: experiences and challenges, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 118, 1414–1426, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrg.20118, 2013.

Karl, T. R. and Trenberth, K. E.: Modern Global Climate Change, Science, 302, 1719–1723, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1090228, 2003.

Karlowsky, S., Augusti, A., Ingrisch, J., Hasibeder, R., Lange, M., Lavorel, S., Bahn, M., Gleixner, G., and Wurzburger, N.: Land use in mountain grasslands alters drought response and recovery of carbon allocation and plant-microbial interactions, J. Ecology, 106, 1230–1243, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12910, 2018.

Knapp, A. K. and Smith, M. D.: Variation among Biomes in Temporal Dynamics of Aboveground Primary Production, Science, 291, 481–484, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.291.5503.481, 2001.

Knapp, A. K., Beier, C., Briske, D. D., Classen, A. T., Luo, Y., Reichstein, M., Smith, M. D., Smith, S. D., Bell, J. E., Fay, P. A., Heisler, J. L., Leavitt, S. W., Sherry, R., Smith, B., and Weng, E.: Consequences of More Extreme Precipitation Regimes for Terrestrial Ecosystems, BioScience, 58, 811–821, https://doi.org/10.1641/B580908, 2008.

Knapp, A. K., Carroll, C. J., Denton, E. M., La Pierre, K. J., Collins, S. L., and Smith, M. D.: Differential sensitivity to regional-scale drought in six central US grasslands, Oecologia, 177, 949–957, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3233-6, 2015.

Knapp, A. K., Avolio, M. L., Beier, C., Carroll, C. J. W., Collins, S. L., Dukes, J. S., Fraser, L. H., Griffin-Nolan, R. J., Hoover, D. L., Jentsch, A., Loik, M. E., Phillips, R. P., Post, A. K., Sala, O. E., Slette, I. J., Yahdjian, L., and Smith, M. D.: Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years, Glob. Change Biol., 23, 1774–1782, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13504, 2017a.

Knapp, A. K., Ciais, P., and Smith, M. D.: Reconciling inconsistencies in precipitation-productivity relationships: implications for climate change, New Phytol., 214, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14381, 2017b.

Kowalczyk, E., Wang, Y., Law, R., Davies, H., McGregor, J., and Abramowitz, G.: The CSIRO Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model for use in climate models and as an offline model, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Paper, 13, 1–37, 2006.

Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, 1–33, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005.

Lambers, H., Chapin III, F. S., and Pons, T. L.: Plant Physiological Ecology, Springer Science & Business Media, New York, 2008.

Lau, W. K. M., Wu, H. T., and Kim, K. M.: A canonical response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3163–3169, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50420, 2013.

Lauenroth, W. K. and Bradford, J. B.: Ecohydrology of dry regions of the United States: water balance consequences of small precipitation events, Ecohydrology, 5, 46–53, https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.195, 2012.

Lauenroth, W. K. and Sala, O. E.: Long-Term Forage Production of North American Shortgrass Steppe, Ecol. Appl., 2, 397–403, https://doi.org/10.2307/1941874, 1992.

Luo, Y., Jiang, L., Niu, S., and Zhou, X.: Nonlinear responses of land ecosystems to variation in precipitation, New Phytol., 214, 5–7, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14476, 2017.

McGuire, A. D., Melillo, J. M., Joyce, L. A., Kicklighter, D. W., Grace, A. L., Moore, B., and Vorosmarty, C. J.: Interactions between carbon and nitrogen dynamics in estimating net primary productivity for potential vegetation in North America, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 6, 101–124, https://doi.org/10.1029/92GB00219, 1992.

Nemani, R. R., Keeling, C. D., Hashimoto, H., Jolly, W. M., Piper, S. C., Tucker, C. J., Myneni, R. B., and Running, S. W.: Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999, Science, 300, 1560–1563, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1082750, 2003.

Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., and Bonan, G. B.: Technical description of version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM), Ncar Tech. Note NCAR/TN-503+STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 256–265, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6FB50WZ, 2013.

Parolari, A. J., Goulden, M. L., and Bras, R. L.: Ecohydrological controls on grass and shrub above-ground net primary productivity in a seasonally dry climate, Ecohydrology, 8, 1572–1583, https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1605, 2015.

Peng, C., Liu, J., Dang, Q., Apps, M. J., and Jiang, H.: TRIPLEX: a generic hybrid model for predicting forest growth and carbon and nitrogen dynamics, Ecol. Model., 153, 109–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00505-1, 2002.

Peng, S., Piao, S., Shen, Z., Ciais, P., Sun, Z., Chen, S., Bacour, C., Peylin, P., and Chen, A.: Precipitation amount, seasonality and frequency regulate carbon cycling of a semi-arid grassland ecosystem in Inner Mongolia, China: A modeling analysis, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 178–179, 46–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.02.002, 2013.

Petrie, M. D., Peters, D., Yao, J., Blair, J. M., Burruss, N. D., Collins, S. L., Derner, J. D., Gherardi, L. A., Hendrickson, J. R., Sala, O. E., Starks, P. J., and Steiner, J. L.: Regional grassland productivity responses to precipitation during multiyear above- and below-average rainfall periods, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 1935–1951, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14024, 2018.

Reichstein, M., Bahn, M., Ciais, P., Frank, D., Mahecha, M. D., Seneviratne, S. I., Zscheischler, J., Beer, C., Buchmann, N., Frank, D. C., Papale, D., Rammig, A., Smith, P., Thonicke, K., van der Velde, M., Vicca, S., Walz, A., and Wattenbach, M.: Climate extremes and the carbon cycle, Nature, 500, 287–295, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12350, 2013.

Reick, C. H., Raddatz, T., Brovkin, V., and Gayler, V.: Representation of natural and anthropogenic land cover change in MPI-ESM, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 5, 459–482, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20022, 2013.

Robertson, T. R., Bell, C. W., Zak, J. C., and Tissue, D. T.: Precipitation timing and magnitude differentially affect aboveground annual net primary productivity in three perennial species in a Chihuahuan Desert grassland, New Phytol., 181, 230–242, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02643.x, 2009.

Roy, J., Mooney, H. A., and Saugier, B.: Terrestrial global productivity, Academic Press, San Diego, 2001.

Sala, O. E., Parton, W. J., Joyce, L. A., and Lauenroth, W. K.: Primary Production of the Central Grassland Region of the United States, Ecology, 69, 40–45, https://doi.org/10.2307/1943158, 1988.

Sala, O. E., Gherardi, L. A., Reichmann, L., Jobbágy, E., and Peters, D.: Legacies of precipitation fluctuations on primary production: theory and data synthesis, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 367, 3135–3144, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0347, 2012.

Schmitt, M., Bahn, M., Wohlfahrt, G., Tappeiner, U., and Cernusca, A.: Land use affects the net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its components in mountain grasslands, Biogeosciences, 7, 2297–2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-2297-2010, 2010.

Seastedt, T. R. and Knapp, A. K.: Consequences of Nonequilibrium Resource Availability Across Multiple Time Scales: The Transient Maxima Hypothesis, Am. Nat., 141, 621–633, https://doi.org/10.1086/285494, 1993.

Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J., Levis, S., Lucht, W., and Sykes, M. T.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x, 2003.

Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., and Sykes, M. T.: Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 10, 621–637, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2001.t01-1-00256.x, 2001.

Smith, B., Warlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg, J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014.

Smith, M. D., Knapp, A. K., and Collins, S. L.: A framework for assessing ecosystem dynamics in response to chronic resource alterations induced by global change, Ecology, 90, 3279–3289, https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1815.1, 2009.

Smith, N. G., Rodgers, V. L., Brzostek, E. R., Kulmatiski, A., Avolio, M. L., Hoover, D. L., Koerner, S. E., Grant, K., Jentsch, A., Fatichi, S., and Niyogi, D.: Toward a better integration of biological data from precipitation manipulation experiments into Earth system models, Rev. Geophys., 52, 412–434, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000458, 2014.

Thornton, P. E., Lamarque, J. F., Rosenbloom, N. A., and Mahowald, N. M.: Influence of carbon-nitrogen cycle coupling on land model response to CO2 fertilization and climate variability, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, 405–412, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002868, 2007.

Tian, H., Xu, X., Lu, C., Liu, M., Ren, W., Chen, G., Melillo, J., and Liu, J.: Net exchanges of CO2, CH4, and N2O between China's terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere and their contributions to global climate warming, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 116, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JG001393, 2011.

Tian, H., Chen, G., Lu, C., Xu, X., Hayes, D. J., Ren, W., Pan, S., Huntzinger, D. N., and Wofsy, S. C.: North American terrestrial CO2 uptake largely offset by CH4 and N2O emissions: toward a full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget, Climatic Change, 129, 413–426, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1072-9, 2015.

Vicca, S., Gilgen, A. K., Camino Serrano, M., Dreesen, F. E., Dukes, J. S., Estiarte, M., Gray, S. B., Guidolotti, G., Hoeppner, S. S., Leakey, A. D. B., Ogaya, R., Ort, D. R., Ostrogovic, M. Z., Rambal, S., Sardans, J., Schmitt, M., Siebers, M., van der Linden, L., van Straaten, O., and Granier, A.: Urgent need for a common metric to make precipitation manipulation experiments comparable, New Phytol., 195, 518–522, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04224.x, 2012.

Wang, Y. P., Kowalczyk, E., Leuning, R., Abramowitz, G., Raupach, M. R., Pak, B., van Gorsel, E., and Luhar, A.: Diagnosing errors in a land surface model (CABLE) in the time and frequency domains, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 116, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JG001385, 2011.

Waring, R., Landsberg, J., and Williams, M.: Net primary production of forests: a constant fraction of gross primary production?, Tree Physiol., 18, 129–134, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/18.2.129, 1998.

Wei, Y., Liu, S., Huntzinger, D. N., Michalak, A. M., Viovy, N., Post, W. M., Schwalm, C. R., Schaefer, K., Jacobson, A. R., Lu, C., Tian, H., Ricciuto, D. M., Cook, R. B., Mao, J., and Shi, X.: The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2875-2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2875-2014, 2014.

Weng, E. and Luo, Y.: Soil hydrological properties regulate grassland ecosystem responses to multifactor global change: A modeling analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 113, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000539, 2008.

Wilcox, K. R., Fischer, J. C., Muscha, J. M., Petersen, M. K., and Knapp, A. K.: Contrasting above- and belowground sensitivity of three Great Plains grasslands to altered rainfall regimes, Glob. Change Biol., 21, 335–344, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12673, 2015.

Wilcox, K. R., Blair, J. M., Smith, M. D., and Knapp, A. K.: Does ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation at the site-level conform to regional-scale predictions?, Ecology, 97, 561–568, https://doi.org/10.1890/15-1437.1, 2016.

Wilcox, K. R., Shi, Z., Gherardi, L. A., Lemoine, N. P., Koerner, S. E., Hoover, D. L., Bork, E., Byrne, K. M., Cahill, J., Collins, S. L., Evans, S., Katarina Gilgen, A., Holub, P., Jiang, L., Knapp, A. K., LeCain, D., Liang, J., Garcia-Palacios, P., Peñuelas, J., Pockman, W. T., Smith, M. D., Sun, S., White, S. R., Yahdjian, L., Zhu, K., and Luo, Y.: Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: a synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments, Glob. Change Biol., 23, 4376–4385, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13706, 2017.

Wohlfahrt, G., Hammerle, A., Haslwanter, A., Bahn, M., Tappeiner, U., and Cernusca, A.: Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: Effects of weather and management, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009286, 2008.

Wu, D., Zhao, X., Liang, S., Zhou, T., Huang, K., Tang, B., and Zhao, W.: Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change, Glob. Change Biol., 21, 3520–3531, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12945, 2015.

Yang, Y., Fang, J., Ma, W., and Wang, W.: Relationship between variability in aboveground net primary production and precipitation in global grasslands, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 1-4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035408, 2008.

Yi, S., McGuire, A. D., Kasischke, E., Harden, J., Manies, K., Mack, M., and Turetsky, M.: A dynamic organic soil biogeochemical model for simulating the effects of wildfire on soil environmental conditions and carbon dynamics of black spruce forests, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 115, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JG001302, 2010.

Zaehle, S., Friend, A. D., Friedlingstein, P., Dentener, F., Peylin, P., and Schulz, M.: Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model: 2. Role of the nitrogen cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003522, 2010.

Zhu, Q., Liu, J., Peng, C., Chen, H., Fang, X., Jiang, H., Yang, G., Zhu, D., Wang, W., and Zhou, X.: Modelling methane emissions from natural wetlands by development and application of the TRIPLEX-GHG model, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-981-2014, 2014.

Zscheischler, J., Michalak, A. M., Schwalm, C., Mahecha, M. D., Huntzinger, D. N., Reichstein, M., Berthier, G., Ciais, P., Cook, R. B., El-Masri, B., Huang, M., Ito, A., Jain, A., King, A., Lei, H., Lu, C., Mao, J., Peng, S., Poulter, B., Ricciuto, D., Shi, X., Tao, B., Tian, H., Viovy, N., Wang, W., Wei, Y., Yang, J., and Zeng, N.: Impact of large-scale climate extremes on biospheric carbon fluxes: An intercomparison based on MsTMIP data, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 28, 585–600, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004826, 2014.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Biogeosciences

Tập 15 Số 11

3421-3437

Thông tin tác giả