An Analytical Solution for the Impact of Vegetation Changes on Hydrological Partitioning Within the Budyko Framework

Water Resources Research - Tập 54 Số 1 - Trang 519-537 - 2018
Shulei Zhang1,2, Yuting Yang1,2, Tim R. McVicar3,1, Dawen Yang2
1CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia
2State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
3Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Tóm tắt

Abstract

Vegetation change is a critical factor that profoundly affects the terrestrial water cycle. Here we derive an analytical solution for the impact of vegetation changes on hydrological partitioning within the Budyko framework. This is achieved by deriving an analytical expression between leaf area index (LAI) change and the Budyko land surface parameter (n) change, through the combination of a steady state ecohydrological model with an analytical carbon cost‐benefit model for plant rooting depth. Using China where vegetation coverage has experienced dramatic changes over the past two decades as a study case, we quantify the impact of LAI changes on the hydrological partitioning during 1982–2010 and predict the future influence of these changes for the 21st century using climate model projections. Results show that LAI change exhibits an increasing importance on altering hydrological partitioning as climate becomes drier. In semiarid and arid China, increased LAI has led to substantial streamflow reductions over the past three decades (on average −8.5% in 1990s and −11.7% in 2000s compared to the 1980s baseline), and this decreasing trend in streamflow is projected to continue toward the end of this century due to predicted LAI increases. Our result calls for caution regarding the large‐scale revegetation activities currently being implemented in arid and semiarid China, which may result in serious future water scarcity issues here. The analytical model developed here is physically based and suitable for simultaneously assessing both vegetation changes and climate change induced changes to streamflow globally.

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Water Resources Research

Tập 54 Số 1

519-537

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