Air transportation, population density and temperature predict the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil

PeerJ - Tập 8 - Trang e9322
Pedro Aurélio Costa Lima Pequeno1, Bruna Mendel2, Clarissa Rosa3, Mariane Bosholn1, Jorge Luiz Pereira Souza4, Fabrício Beggiato Baccaro5, Reinaldo Imbrózio Barbosa1, William E. Magnusson3
1Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Boa Vista, Brazil
2Universidade Federal de Roraima, Boa Vista, Brazil
3Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, Brazil
4Instituto Nacional da Mata Atlântica, Santa Teresa, Brazil
5Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil

Tóm tắt

There is evidence that COVID-19, the disease caused by the betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is sensitive to environmental conditions. However, such conditions often correlate with demographic and socioeconomic factors at larger spatial extents, which could confound this inference. We evaluated the effect of meteorological conditions (temperature, solar radiation, air humidity and precipitation) on 292 daily records of cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases across the 27 Brazilian capital cities during the 1st month of the outbreak, while controlling for an indicator of the number of tests, the number of arriving flights, population density, proportion of elderly people and average income. Apart from increasing with time, the number of confirmed cases was mainly related to the number of arriving flights and population density, increasing with both factors. However, after accounting for these effects, the disease was shown to be temperature sensitive: there were more cases in colder cities and days, and cases accumulated faster at lower temperatures. Our best estimate indicates that a 1 °C increase in temperature has been associated with a decrease in confirmed cases of 8%. The quality of the data and unknowns limit the analysis, but the study reveals an urgent need to understand more about the environmental sensitivity of the disease to predict demands on health services in different regions and seasons.

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