Aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize in Europe increases due to climate change

Scientific Reports - Tập 6 Số 1
Paola Battilani1, Piero Toscano2, H.J. van der Fels‐Klerx3, Antonio Moretti4, Marco Camardo Leggieri1, Carlo Brera5, Anna Lanzoni6, Tilemachos Goumperis6, Tobin Robinson6
1Department of Sustainable Crop Production, Università Cattolica del S. Cuore di Piacenza Faculty of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences, via Emilia Parmense 84, Piacenza, 29100, Italy
2National Research Council - Institute of Biometeorology (CNR-IBIMET), Via Caproni 8, 50145, Florence, Italy
3Department of Toxicology, RIKILT Wageningen UR, Bio-assays & Novel Foods, Akkermaalsbos 2, NL-6708 WB, Wageningen, The Netherlands
4Institute of Sciences of Food Productions, CNR, Via Amendola 122/O, 70126, Bari, Italy
5Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Viale Regina Elena 299, 00161, Rome, Italy
6European Food Safety Authority, Scientific Committee and Emerging Risks Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma, Italy

Tóm tắt

AbstractClimate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide and its expected impact on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern. Aflatoxins have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins; hence, the maximal concentration in agricultural food and feed products and their commodities is regulated worldwide. The possible change in patterns of aflatoxin occurrence in crops due to climate change is a matter of concern that may require anticipatory actions. The aim of this study was to predict aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops, within the next 100 years, under a +2 °C and +5 °C climate change scenario, applying a modelling approach. Europe was virtually covered by a net, 50 × 50 km grids, identifying 2254 meshes with a central point each. Climate data were generated for each point, linked to predictive models and predictions were run consequently. Aflatoxin B1is predicted to become a food safety issue in maize in Europe, especially in the +2 °C scenario, the most probable scenario of climate change expected for the next years. These results represent a supporting tool to reinforce aflatoxin management and to prevent human and animal exposure.

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