Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe

Global Change Biology - Tập 23 Số 7 - Trang 2831-2847 - 2017
Cuauhtémoc Sáenz‐Romero1,2, Jean‐Baptiste Lamy3, Alexis Ducousso2, Brigitte Musch4, François Ehrenmann2, Sylvain Delzon2, Stephen Cavers5, W. Chałupka6, Said Dağdaş7, Jon Kehlet Hansen8, Steve J. Lee9, Mirko Liesebach10, Hans‐Martin Rau11, Achilleas Psomas12, Volker Schneck13, Wilfried Steiner11, Niklaus E. Zimmermann12, Antoine Kremer2
1Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias y Forestales Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo Av. San Juanito Itzícuaro s/n, Col. Nueva Esperanza Morelia Michoacán 58337 México
2Unité Mixte de Recherche Biodiversité Gènes & Communautés (UMR 1202 BIOGECO) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) – Université de Bordeaux 69 route d'Arcachon Cestas F‐33610 France
3SG2M, LGPMM Ifremer Avenue Mus de Loup La Tremblade F‐17390 France
4Conservatoire Génétique des Arbres Forestiers Office National des Forêts 2163 Avenue de la pomme de pin Orléans Cedex 45075 France
5Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Bush Estate Penicuik EH26 0QB UK
6Institute of Dendrology Polish Academy of Sciences Parkowa 5 Kornik PL‐62‐035 Poland
7Forest Tending Division of Silviculture Department General Directorate of Forestry – Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs 06560 Söğütözü Caddesi, Bestepe, Yenimahalle Ankara Turkey
8Faculty of Sciences University of Copenhagen Rolighedsvej 23 Frederiksberg C DK‐1958 Denmark
9Forest Research Northern Research Station Roslin EH25 9SY Scotland
10Thünen‐Institut für Forstgenetik Sieker Landstrasse. 2 Grosshansdorf 22927 Germany
11Abteilung Waldgenressourcen Nordwestdeutsche Forstliche Versuchsanstalt Professor‐Oelkers‐Straße 6 Hann. Münden 34346 Germany
12Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Zürcherstrasse 111 Birmensdorf CH‐8903 Switzerland
13Thünen‐Institut für Forstgenetik Eberswalder Chaussee 3A Waldsieversdorf 15377 Germany

Tóm tắt

AbstractHow temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071–2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5‐EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4‐GEM2‐ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.

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Global Change Biology

Tập 23 Số 7

2831-2847

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