A two‐parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow

Water Resources Research - Tập 43 Số 11 - 2007
Guobin Fu1, Stephen P. Charles1, Francis H. S. Chiew2
1CSIRO Land and Water, Wembley, WA, Australia
2CSIRO, Land & Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

Tóm tắt

This study extends the single parameter precipitation elasticity of streamflow index into a two parameter climate elasticity index, as a function of both precipitation and temperature, in order to assess climatic effects on annual streamflow. Application of the proposed index to two basins indicates that the single parameter precipitation elasticity index may give a general relationship between precipitation and streamflow in some cases, but that it cannot reflect the complicated non‐linear relationship among streamflow, precipitation and temperature. For example, for the Spokane River basin the climate elasticity of streamflow index varies from 2.4 to 0.2, for a precipitation increase of 20%, as temperature varies from 1°C lower to 1.8°C higher than the long term mean. Thus a 20% precipitation increase may result in a streamflow increase of 48% if the temperature is 1°C lower but only a 4% increase if the temperature is 1.8°C higher than the long‐term mean. The proposed method can be applied to other basins to assess potential climate change effects on annual streamflow. The results of the two case studies can inform planning of long‐term basin water management strategies taking into account global change scenarios.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

American Rivers(2005) http://www.waterplanet.ws/ endangeredriver/#6.

Arnell N., 2002, Hydrology and Global Enviromental Change

10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00101-4

10.1029/2001WR001234

10.1623/hysj.51.4.613

10.1175/1520-0477(1992)073<2013:SORTCC>2.0.CO;2

10.1016/S0309-1708(99)00019-6

Fu G., 2005, Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change ‐ Hydroclimatic Variability, 238

10.2166/wpt.2006.028

Fu G., 1991, Impacts of global warming on regional hydrological regime ‐ A case study on Wanquanhe basin, ACTA Geogr. Sinica, 46, 277

10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037491.95395.bb

10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2007)12:5(452)

10.1002/hyp.6574

Houghton J. T., 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPCC S. Solomon D. Qin M. Manning Z. Chen M. Marquis K. B. Averyt M. Tignor H. L. Miller 2007 Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge U.K. and New York

Johnston K., 2001, Using ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst

10.1007/BF01903420

Langbein W. B., 1949, Annual Runoff in the United State, 10.3133/cir52

10.1007/BF01094105

Li D. X.Jiang Y.Wang andH.Li(2001) Analysis of calculation of natural tunoff in the Yellow River People's Yellow River 23(2) 35–37 (in Chinese).

Limbrunner J. F.(1998) Climatic elasticity of streamflow in the United States M.S. thesis 39 pp. Tufts Univ. Medford Mass.

10.1002/hyp.5524

McCarthy J. J., 2001, Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Mirza M. Q., 1997, The runoff sensitivity of the Ganges River basin to climate change and its implications, J. Environ. Hydrol., 5, 1

Mu X., 2003, Analysis of the annual natural runoff variety process of the Yellow River, J. Arid Resour. Environ., 23, 1

10.1016/0022-1694(91)90030-L

10.1029/2004WR003893

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.10.011

10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<2040:IOANTF>2.0.CO;2

Revelle R. R., 1983, Changing climate: Report of the carbon dioxide assessment committee

10.1016/0022-1694(95)02984-2

10.1029/2002GL015937

10.1029/2000WR900330

Schaake J. C., 1990, Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources, 177

10.1190/1.1442837

Spatial Climate Analysis Service(2004) Oregon State Univ.http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/prism/.

Stockton C. W., 1979, Geohydrological implications of climate change on water resource development

10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1999)125:3(148)

Wang Y. X.Zhang L.Wang andJ.Zhou(2002) Analysis on variation of naturalized runoff during the 90s of twenty century in the Yellow River basin People's Yellow River 24(3) 9–11 (in Chinese).

10.1029/2003WR002763

10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1998)3:2(98)

YRCC(1997) Data Quality Control and Assessment of Hydrological Data in the Yellow River and Estimation of Naturalized Streamflow: 1950–1990 Zhengzhou Henan Province China(in Chinese).

Zhang X., 2005, Analysis on Yellow River surface runoff consumption, Acta Geogr. Sinica, 60, 79

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Water Resources Research

Tập 43 Số 11

Thông tin tác giả