A mathematical model predicting anti-hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBs) decay after vaccination against hepatitis B

Clinical and Experimental Immunology - Tập 116 Số 1 - Trang 121-126 - 2001
M.C. Honorati1,2, Aldopaolo Palareti3, Paolo Dolzani2, C. A. Busachi1, R. Rizzoli4, Alessandro Facchini1,2
1Dipartimento di Medicina Interna e Gastroenterologia, Università di Bologna
2Laboratorio di Immunologia e Genetica, Istituto di Ricerca Codivilla Putti-I.O.R.
3Dipartimento di Scienza dell'Informazione, Università di Bologna, Bologna
4Istituto di Morfologia Umana Normale, Università di Chieti, Chieti, Italy

Tóm tắt

SUMMARY The determination of serum levels of antibodies against hepatitis B virus surface antigen (anti-HBs) after hepatitis B vaccination is currently the only simple test available to predict the decay of protection and to plan the administration of booster doses. A total of 3085 vaccine recipients of plasma-derived and recombinant vaccine have been followed for 10 years to determine the kinetics of anti-HBs production and to construct a mathematical model which could efficiently predict the anti-HBs level decline. The anti-HBs peak level was reached 68 days after the last dose of recombinant vaccine and 138 days after the last dose of plasma-derived vaccines. The age of vaccinees negatively influenced the anti-HBs levels and also the time necessary to reach the anti-HBs peak. A bilogarithmic mathematical model (log10 level, log10 time) of anti-HBs decay has been constructed on a sample of recombinant vaccine recipients and subsequently validated on different samples of recombinant or plasma-derived vaccine recipients. Age, gender, type of vaccine (recombinant or plasma-derived), number of vaccine doses (three or four) did not influence the mathematical model of antibody decay. The program can be downloaded at the site: http://www2.stat.unibo.it/palareti/vaccine.htm. Introducing an anti-HBs determination obtained after the peak, the program calculates a prediction of individual anti-HBs decline and allows planning of an efficient booster policy.

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Clinical and Experimental Immunology

Tập 116 Số 1

121-126

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