Mô hình toán học mô phỏng khả năng lây lan của một loại coronavirus mới
Tóm tắt
Theo báo cáo của Tổ chức Y tế Thế giới, một loại coronavirus mới (2019-nCoV) đã được các cơ quan Trung Quốc xác định là virus gây viêm phổi Vũ Hán chưa rõ nguyên nhân vào ngày 7 tháng 1 năm 2020. Virus này được đặt tên là coronavirus hội chứng hô hấp cấp tính nặng 2 (SARS-CoV-2) bởi Ủy ban Quốc tế về Phân loại Virus vào ngày 11 tháng 2 năm 2020. Nghiên cứu này nhằm phát triển một mô hình toán học để tính toán khả năng lây truyền của virus.
Trong nghiên cứu này, chúng tôi đã phát triển một mô hình mạng lây truyền Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People để mô phỏng khả năng lây truyền từ nguồn lây nhiễm (có thể là dơi) sang người. Vì mạng lưới Bats-Hosts-Reservoir khó có thể khám phá rõ ràng và mối quan tâm công chúng tập trung vào việc lây truyền từ Chợ Hải sản Huanan (reservoir) đến con người, chúng tôi đã đơn giản hóa mô hình thành mô hình mạng lây truyền Reservoir-People (RP). Phương pháp ma trận thế hệ tiếp theo đã được áp dụng để tính toán số tái sản sinh cơ bản (
Giá trị của
Mô hình của chúng tôi cho thấy khả năng lây truyền của SARS-CoV-2 cao hơn so với hội chứng hô hấp Trung Đông ở các nước Trung Đông, tương đương với hội chứng hô hấp cấp tính nặng, nhưng thấp hơn so với MERS ở Hàn Quốc.
Từ khóa
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