A comparison of multiple behavior models in a simulation of the aftermath of an improvised nuclear detonation

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 30 - Trang 1148-1174 - 2016
Nidhi Parikh1, Harshal G. Hayatnagarkar1, Richard J. Beckman1, Madhav V. Marathe1, Samarth Swarup1
1Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Lab, Biocomplexity Institute of Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, USA

Tóm tắt

We describe a large-scale simulation of the aftermath of a hypothetical 10kT improvised nuclear detonation at ground level, near the White House in Washington DC. We take a synthetic information approach, where multiple data sets are combined to construct a synthesized representation of the population of the region with accurate demographics, as well as four infrastructures: transportation, healthcare, communication, and power. In this article, we focus on the model of agents and their behavior, which is represented using the options framework. Six different behavioral options are modeled: household reconstitution, evacuation, healthcare-seeking, worry, shelter-seeking, and aiding & assisting others. Agent decision-making takes into account their health status, information about family members, information about the event, and their local environment. We combine these behavioral options into five different behavior models of increasing complexity and do a number of simulations to compare the models.

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