A bibliometric analysis of the literature on crop yield prediction: insights from previous findings and prospects for future research

Seyed Erfan Momenpour1, Saeed Bazgeer1, Masoumeh Moghbel1
1Faculty of Geography University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Tóm tắt

This research presents a bibliometric analysis of articles predicting crop yield using machine learning methods. While several systematic review articles exist, a comprehensive bibliometric analysis illustrating the knowledge structure and research trends, along with collaboration networks among authors, institutions, and countries in this field, has not been conducted. The study focused on 826 articles published over a 32-year period (1992 to 2023) and revealed a significant increase in publications, particularly in recent years. Zhang Zhao from China authored the majority of articles, while the highest number of citations was associated with articles by Zhu Yan and Lobell. Leading countries in article publications are the USA, China, India, Germany, Australia, and Canada, showing strong interconnections in citing each other’s research. The Chinese Academy of Sciences and the US Department of Agriculture are the institutions with the highest number of articles and citations in this domain. The journals Agricultural and Forest Meteorology and Remote Sensing are recognized as top ranking journals in this field (Q1). Based on co-occurrence analysis, three main thematic domains were identified: weather and crop yield prediction, plant growth simulation models, and crop yield prediction using remote sensing data. The research suggests a focus on variables such as disease, pests, insects, and soil salinity when predicting yield. Additionally, greater attention should be given to discussions on food security and crop yield, especially in developing countries.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Adisa OM, Masinde M, Botai JO, Botai CM (2020) Bibliometric analysis of methods and tools for drought monitoring and prediction in Africa. J Sustainability 12:6516. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12166516 Aghighi H, Azadbakht M, Ashourloo D, Shahrabi HS, Radiom S (2018) Machine learning regression techniques for the silage maize yield prediction using time-series images of Landsat 8 OLI. IEEE J. Sel Top App Earth Obs Remote Sens 11:4563–4577. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2018.2823361 Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J (2012) World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA Working Paper No 12–30. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.288998 Basso B, Cammarano D, Carfagna E (2013) Review of crop yield forecasting methods and early warning systems. First Meet Sci Advis Comm Global Strateg Improv Agric Rural Stat 1–56. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004 Cai Y, Guan K, Peng J, Wang S, Seifert C, Wardlow B, Li Z (2018) A high-performance and in-season classification system of field-level crop types using time-series Landsat data and a machine learning approach. Remote Sens Environ 210:35–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.02.045 Cai Y, Guan K, Lobell D, Potgieter AB, Wang S, Peng J, Xu T, Asseng S, Zhang Y, You L et al (2019) Integrating satellite and climate data to predict wheat yield in Australia using machine learning approaches. Agric for Meteorol 274:144–159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.010 Cao HT, Trinh TTP, Nguyen TT, Le HTT, Van Ngo D, Tran T (2020) A bibliometric review of research on STEM education in ASEAN: science mapping the literature in Scopus database, 2000 to 2019. Eurasia J Math Sci Technol Educ 16:em1889 Chimonyo VGP, Chibarabada TP, Choruma DJ, Kunz R, Walker S, Massawe F, Modi AT, Mabhaudhi T (2022) Modelling neglected and underutilised crops: a systematic review of progress, challenges, and opportunities. Sustainability 14(21):13931. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142113931 Cobo MJ, Lopez-Herrera AG, Herrera-Viedma E, Herrera F (2011) Science ´ mapping software tools: review, analysis, and cooperative study among tools. J Am Soc Inform Sci Technol 62(7):1382–1402. https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.21525 Darra N, Anastasiou E, Kriezi O, Lazarou E, Kalivas D, Fountas S (2023) Can yield prediction be fully digitilized? A systematic review. Agronomy 13(9):2441. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13092441 Filippi P, Jones EJ, Wimalathunge NS, Somarathna PDSN, Pozza LE, Ugbaje SU, Jephcott TG, Paterson SE, Whelan BM, Bishop TFA (2019) An approach to forecast grain crop yield using multi-layered, multi-farm data sets and machine learning. Precis Agric 20:1015–1029. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11119-018-09628-4 Guan K, Berry JA, Zhang Y, Joiner J, Guanter L, Badgley G, Lobell DB (2016) Improving the monitoring of crop productivity using spaceborne solar-induced fluorescence. Global Change Biol 22(2):716-726.977. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13136 Hernández-Torrano D, Ibrayeva L (2020) Creativity and education: a bibliometric mapping of the research literature (1975–2019). Think Ski Creat 35:100625. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tsc.2019.100625 Hoffman LA, Etienne XL, Irwin SH, Colino EV, Toasa JI (2015) Forecast performance of WASDE price projections for U.S. corn. Agric Econ (United Kingdom) 46:157–171. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12204 Holzman ME, Carmona F, Rivas R, Niclòs R (2018) Early assessment of crop yield from remotely sensed water stress and solar radiation data. In ISPRS J Photogramm Remote Sens 145:297–308 Joshi A, Pradhan B, Gite S, Chakraborty S (2023) Remote-sensing data and deep-learning techniques in crop mapping and yield prediction: a systematic review. Remote Sens 15(8):2014. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15082014 Khan N, Kamaruddin MA, Sheikh UU, Yusup Y, Bakht MP (2021) Oil palm and machine learning: reviewing one decade of ideas, innovations, applications, and gaps. Agriculture 11(9):832. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11090832 Klompenburg T, Kassahun A, Catal C (2020) Crop yield prediction using machine learning: a systematic literature review. J Comput Electron Agric 177:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2020.105709 Lobell DB (2013) The use of satellite data for crop yield gap analysis. Field Crop Res 143:56–64 Lobell DB, Cassman KG, Field CB (2009) Crop yield gaps: their importance, magnitudes, and causes. Annu Rev Environ Resour 34(1):179–204. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.environ.041008.093740 McQueen RJ, Garner SR, Nevill-Manning CG, Witten IH (1995) Applying machine learning to agricultural data. Comput Electron Agric 12(4):275–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1699(95)98601-9 Mulla DJ (2013) Twenty five years of remote sensing in precision agriculture: key advances and remaining knowledge gaps. Biosys Eng 114(4):358–371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2012.08.009 Muruganantham P, Wibowo S, Grandhi S, Samrat NH, Islam NA (2022) A systematic literature review on crop yield prediction with deep learning and remote sensing. Remote Sens 14:1990. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14091990 Oikonomidis A, Catal C, Kassahun A (2023) Deep learning for crop yield prediction: a systematic literature review. N Z J Crop Hortic Sci 51(1):1–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/01140671.2022.2032213 Oladipupo T (2010) Introduction to machine learning. New Advances in Machine Learning, InTech, 1 Feb. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.5772/9394. Pham HH, Dong TK, Vuong QH et al (2021) A bibliometric review of research on international student mobilities in Asia with Scopus dataset between 1984 and 2019. Scientometrics 126:5201–5224. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-021-03965-4 Rezapour S, Jooyandeh E, Ramezanzade M, Mostafaeipour A, Jahangiri M, Issakhov A, Chowdhury S, Techato K (2021) Forecasting rainfed agricultural production in arid and semi-arid lands using learning machine methods: a case study. Sustainability 13:4607. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13094607 Ross KW, Brown ME, Verdin JP, Underwood LW (2009) Review of FEWS NET biophysical monitoring requirements. Environ Res Lett 4(2):024009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024009 Sharifi A, Khavarian-Garmsir AR, Allam Z, Asadzadeh A (2023) Progress and prospects in planning: a bibliometric review of literature in urban studies and regional and urban planning, 1956–2022. Prog Plan. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2023.100740 Sherrick BJ, Lanoue CA, Woodard J, Schnitkey GD, Paulson ND (2014) Crop yield distributions: fit, efficiency, and performance. Agric Financ Rev 74(3):348–363 Sibley AM, Grassini P, Thomas NE, Cassman KG, Lobell DB (2014) Testing remote sensing approaches for assessing yield variability among maize fields. Agron J 106(1):24. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2013.0314 Suhaimi N, Mahmud SND (2022) A bibliometric analysis of climate change literacy between 2001 and 2021. Sustainability 14(19):11940. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141911940 Thornton PK, Bowen WT, Ravelo AC, Wilkens PW, Farmer G, Brock J, Brink JE (1997) Estimating millet production for famine early warning: an application of crop simulation modelling using satellite and ground-based data in Burkina Faso. Agric for Meteorol 83(1–2):95–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(96)02348-9 van Eck NJ, Waltman L (2022) VOSviewer manual, vol 1. Univeristeit Leiden, Leiden, pp 1–53. https://www.vosviewer.com/documentation/Manual_VOSviewer_1.6.18.pdf van Eck NJ, Waltman L (2010) Software survey: VOSviewer, a computer program for bibliometric mapping. Scientometrics 84:523–538. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-009-0146-3 Van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Grassini P, Wolf J, Tittonell P, Hochman Z (2013) Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance-a review. Field Crop Res 143:4–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2012.09.009 Whitcraft AK, Becker-Reshef I, Justice CO (2015) A framework for defining spatially explicit earth observation requirements for a global agricultural monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM). Remote Sens 7(2):1461–1481. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70201461 Witten IH, Frank E, Hall MA, Pal CJ (2016) Data mining: practical machine learning tools and techniques. https://doi.org/10.1016/c2009-0-19715-5 Xu X, Gao P, Zhu X, Guo W, Ding J, Li C, Wu X (2019) Design of an integrated climatic assessment indicator (ICAI) for wheat production: a case study in Jiangsu Province. China Ecol Ind 101:943–953. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.01.059