Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes

Geophysical Research Letters - Tập 34 Số 8 - 2007
Zhining Tao1, Allen Williams1, Ho‐Chun Huang1, Michael Caughey1, Xin‐Zhong Liang1
1Illinois State Water Survey University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Champaign Illinois USA

Tóm tắt

The relative contributions of projected future emissions and climate changes to U.S. surface ozone concentrations are investigated focusing on California, the Midwest, the Northeast, and Texas. By 2050 regional average ozone concentrations increase by 2–15% under the IPCC SRES A1Fi (“dirty”) scenario, and decrease by 4–12% under the B1 (relatively “clean”) scenario. However, the magnitudes of ozone changes differ significantly between major metropolitan and rural areas. These ozone changes are dominated by the emissions changes in 61% area of the contiguous U.S. under the B1 scenario, but are largely determined by the projected climate changes in 46% area under the A1Fi scenario. In the ozone responses to climate changes, the biogenic emissions changes contribute strongly over the Northeast, moderately in the Midwest, and negligibly in other regions.

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Geophysical Research Letters

Tập 34 Số 8

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