Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era

Journal of Economic Perspectives - Tập 4 Số 1 - Trang 117-134 - 1990
Richard Meese1
1Associate Professor of Business Administration, University of California, Berkeley, California.

Tóm tắt

The international monetary landscape that has emerged since the felling of Bretton Woods is characterized by a hybrid exchange rate system that lies somewhere between the textbook polar cases of a gold standard and a pure float. This system has relatively flexible exchange rates between major countries, active central bank intervention in the market for the major currencies, and predominantly fixed exchange rates (relative to the dollar or to some basket of currencies) for less developed countries and newly industrializing nations. The majority of research on currency markets since the early 1970s has focused on the characteristics of flexible exchange rates under this hybrid regime. My thesis is that this research has been unsuccessful. The proportion of (monthly or quarterly) exchange rate changes that current models can explain is essentially zero. Even after-the-fact forecasts that use actual values (instead of forecasted values) of the explanatory variables cannot explain major currency movements over the post-Bretton Woods era. This result is quite surprising.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb02511.x

10.1111/j.1465-7295.1982.tb01138.x

Backus David, 1984, Canadian Journal of Economics, 824

10.1016/S0022-1996(87)80004-1

10.2307/1913889

Dominguez Kathryn, 1986, Economic Letters

Dornbusch Rudiger, 1976, Journal of Political Economy, 1161

Frankel Jeffrey, 1987, American Economic Review, 133

Geweke John, 1985, American Economic Review, 206

10.1016/0165-1889(88)90047-4

Hansen Lars Peter, Journal ofPolitical Economy, 1983, 249

Isard Peter, Bryant, Ralph, et al., eds., Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies. Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1988, 183

Kareken John, 1981, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 202

10.2307/1911512

Lucas Robert E. Jr., 1982, Journal of Monetary Economics, 335

Meese Richard, 1983, Journal of International Economics, 3

10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb02613.x

Shiller Robert, 1981, American Economic Review

Somanath V. S., Journal of International Money and Finance, 1986, 195

10.1086/261513

10.1257/jep.2.3.147

10.1126/science.7455683

Westerfield J. M, 1977, Journal of International Economics, 181

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Journal of Economic Perspectives

Tập 4 Số 1

117-134

Thông tin tác giả