Farmers facing changed urban dietary patterns: whether and what to adapt?

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 28 - Trang 1-26 - 2023
Fritz Wittmann1, Michael Eder1
1Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Institute of Agricultural and Forestry Economics, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Vienna, Austria

Tóm tắt

To cope with the impacts of shifts in food consumption patterns required to reduce environmental problems, farmers will have to adapt at farm level. We explore farmers’ intentions and preferred options to adapt in the metropolitan region of Vienna, Austria, in response to changed food demand among the Viennese population. In doing so, we consider changed food consumption patterns for (1) regional food, (2) organic food, and (3) meat in several scenarios. By applying the contingent behavior method to farmers in a survey, we assess farm adaptations with respect to production orientation (crop and livestock production patterns) and production mode (conventional or organic). The results show that, depending on the farm type, farmers tend to make specific contextual adaptations in production orientation. Accordingly, less specialized farmers are more likely to employ transformative adaptations. Most farmers who adapt production orientation, however, tend to employ incremental adaptations, i.e., extensions of what is already done. A logit model indicates that, among changed food consumption patterns, increasing regional food consumption is the most influential factor in farmers’ decision to adapt production orientation. Different adaptation paths were generated demonstrating the need for coordinated policy measures that consider the diversity of the different farm types to further encourage farm adaptations and reduce environmental risks associated with modern farming.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Andersen E, Verhoog AD, Elbersen BS, Godeschalk FE, Koole B (2006) A multidimensional farming system typology. SEAMLESS Report No.12, SEAMLESS integrated project, EU 6th Framework Programme Arzeni A, Ascione E, Borsotto P et al (2021) Analysis of farms characteristics related to innovation needs: a proposal for supporting the public decision-making process. Land Use Policy 100:104892. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104892 Avellan T, Meier J, Mauser W (2012) Are urban areas endangering the availability of rainfed crop suitable land? Remote Sens Lett 3:631–638. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2012.659353 Barthel S, Parker J, Ernstson H (2015) Food and green space in cities: a resilience lens on gardens and urban environmental movements. Urban Stud 52:1321–1338. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098012472744 Baumgart-Getz A, Prokopy LS, Floress K (2012) Why farmers adopt best management practice in the United States: a meta-analysis of the adoption literature. J Environ Manag 96:17–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.10.006 Bertoni D, Cavicchioli D (2016) Farm succession, occupational choice and farm adaptation at the rural-urban interface: the case of Italian horticultural farms. Land Use Policy 57:739–748. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.07.002 Bijttebier J, Ruysschaert G, Hijbeek R et al (2018) Adoption of non-inversion tillage across Europe: use of a behavioural approach in understanding decision making of farmers. Land Use Policy 78:460–471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.05.044 Billen G, Barles S, Garnier J et al (2009) The food-print of Paris: long-term reconstruction of the nitrogen flows imported into the city from its rural hinterland. Reg Environ Change 9:13–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-008-0051-y BMNT (2015) INVEKOS-Datenpool 2015. Bundesministerium für Nachhaltigkeit und Tourismus [unpublished dataset], Vienna Carson R, Cameron MR (1995) Sequencing and nesting in contingent valuation surveys. J Environ Econ Manag 28:155–173 Clancy K, Ruhf K (2010) Is local enough? Some arguments for regional food systems. Choices 25 Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 1198/2014 of 1 August 2014 supplementing Council Regulation (EC) No 1217/2009 setting up a network for the collection of accountancy data on the incomes and business operation of agricultural holdings in the European Union. Off J of the Eur Union L 321/2 Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (2023) CLC 2018 – Corine Land Cover (with funding by the European Union). https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover/clc2018. Accessed 20 Apr 2023 Cornwell E, Sposito V, Faggian R (2021) Agricultural adaptation mainstreaming and its study through a systemic adaptation assessment framework: a sub-alpine case-study. J Rural Stud 84:22–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2021.03.010 Cradock-Henry NA, Blackett P, Hall M et al (2020) Climate adaptation pathways for agriculture: insights from a participatory process. Environ Sci Policy 107:66–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.02.020 Cramer JS (2003) Logit models from economics and other fields. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Cummings RG, Taylor LO (1999) Unbiased value estimates for environmental goods: a cheap talk design for the contingent valuation method. Am Econ Rev 89:649–665. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.3.649 Darnhofer I, Fairweather J, Moller H (2010a) Assessing a farm’s sustainability: insights from resilience thinking. Int J Agric Sustain 8:186–198. https://doi.org/10.3763/ijas.2010.0480 Darnhofer I, Lindenthal T, Bartel-Kratochvil R, Zollitsch W (2010b) Conventionalisation of organic farming practices: from structural criteria towards an assessment based on organic principles. A review. Agron Sustain Dev 30:67–81. https://doi.org/10.1051/agro/2009011 de Janvry A (2019) Socioeconomic dimension of agrifood systems. In: Campanhola C, Pandey S (eds) Sustainable Food and Agriculture. Academic Press, London, pp 331–347 Dessart FJ, Barreiro-Hurlé J, van Bavel R (2019) Behavioural factors affecting the adoption of sustainable farming practices: a policy-oriented review. Eur Rev Agric Econ 46:417–471. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbz019 Doernberg A, Horn P, Zasada I, Piorr A (2019) Urban food policies in German city regions: an overview of key players and policy instruments. Food Policy 89:101782. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101782 Doyle JR (2013) Survey of time preference, delay discounting models. Judgm Decis Mak 8:116–135. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1685861 Eiswerth ME, Englin J, Fadali E, Shaw WD (2000) The value of water levels in water-based recreation: a pooled revealed preference/contingent behavior model. Water Resour Res 36:1079–1086. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900332 Englin J, Cameron TA (1996) Augmenting travel cost models with contingent behavior data poisson regression analyses with individual panel data. Environ Resour Econ 7:133–147. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00699288 Enthoven L, Van den Broeck G (2021) Local food systems: reviewing two decades of research. Agric Syst 193:103226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103226 Eurostat (2022) Glossary:Standard output (SO) - Statistics Explained. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Standard_output_(SO). Accessed 20 Apr 2023 Fader M, Gerten D, Krause M et al (2013) Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints. Environ Res Lett 8:014046. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014046 Feldmann C, Hamm U (2015) Consumers’ perceptions and preferences for local food: a review. Food Qual Prefer 40:152–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodqual.2014.09.014 Filho WL, Wolf F, Moncada S et al (2022) Transformative adaptation as a sustainable response to climate change: insights from large-scale case studies. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 27:20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-022-09997-2 Fishbein M, Ajzen I (1975) Belief, attitude, intention and behaviour: an introduction to theory and research. Addison-Wesley, Reading Frison E, Clément C (2020) The potential of diversified agroecological systems to deliver healthy outcomes: making the link between agriculture, food systems & health. Food Policy 96:101851. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101851 Fujii S, Gärling T (2003) Application of attitude theory for improved predictive accuracy of stated preference methods in travel demand analysis. Transp Res A: Policy Pract 37:389–402. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0965-8564(02)00032-0 Geels FW, Schot J (2007) Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Res Policy 36:399–417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2007.01.003 Gosling E, Williams KJH (2010) Connectedness to nature, place attachment and conservation behaviour: testing connectedness theory among farmers. J Environ Psychol 30:298–304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2010.01.005 Greene WH (2003) Econometric analysis, 5th edn. Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey Grijalva TC, Berrens RP, Bohara AK, Shaw WD (2002) Testing the validity of contingent behavior trip responses. Am J Agric Econ 84:401–414. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8276.00306 Guyomard H, Darcy-Vrillon B, Esnouf C et al (2012) Eating patterns and food systems: critical knowledge requirements for policy design and implementation. Agric Food Secur 1:13. https://doi.org/10.1186/2048-7010-1-13 Haab TC, Whitehead JC (2014) Environmental and natural resource economics: an Encyclopedia. ABC-CLIO, Santa Barbara Hammond J, van Wijk MT, Smajgl A et al (2017) Farm types and farmer motivations to adapt: implications for design of sustainable agricultural interventions in the rubber plantations of South West China. Agric Syst 154:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.02.009 Herens M, Gabrielli M, Peters B et al (2018) Farmers’ adaptive strategies in balancing commercial farming and consumption of nutritious foods: case study of Myanmar. Sustain 10:4721. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10124721 Huet S, Rigolot C, Xu Q et al (2018) Toward modelling of transformational change processes in farm decision-making. Agric Sci 9:340–350. https://doi.org/10.4236/as.2018.93024 Inwood SM, Sharp JS (2012) Farm persistence and adaptation at the rural–urban interface: succession and farm adjustment. J Rural Stud 28:107–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2011.07.005 Janssen S, Van Ittersum MK (2007) Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: a review of bio-economic farm models. Agric Syst 94:622–636. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2007.03.001 Joseph S, Peters I, Friedrich H (2019) Can regional organic agriculture feed the regional community? A case study for Hamburg and North Germany. Ecol Econ 164:106342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.05.022 Kahneman D, Tversky A (1979) Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47:263–291. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185 Käyhkö J, Wiréhn L, Juhola S, Neset T-S (2020) Integrated framework for identifying transformative adaptation in agri-food systems. Environ Sci Policy 114:580–586. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.10.002 Kooten GCV (1993) Land resource economics and sustainable development: economic policies and the common good. UBC Press, Vancouver Lauk C, Kaufmann L, Theuerl MC et al (2022) Demand side options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the land footprint of urban food systems: a scenario analysis for the City of Vienna. J Clean Prod 359:132064. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132064 Lengnick L, Miller M, Marten GG (2015) Metropolitan foodsheds: a resilient response to the climate change challenge? J Environ Stud Sci 5:573–592. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-015-0349-2 Liebowitz SJ, Margolis SE (1995) Path dependence, lock-in, and history. J Law Econ Organ 11:205–226 Mabe F, Sienso G, Donkoh S (2014) Determinants of choice of climate change adaptation strategies in Northern Ghana. Res Appl Econ 6. https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v6i4.6121 Macdiarmid JI, Douglas F, Campbell J (2016) Eating like there’s no tomorrow: public awareness of the environmental impact of food and reluctance to eat less meat as part of a sustainable diet. Appetite 96:487–493. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2015.10.011 MacRae RJ, Hill SB, Mehuys GR, Henning J (1990) Farm-scale agronomic and economic conversion from conventional to sustainable agriculture. Adv Agron 43:155–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2113(08)60478-2 Mäder P, Fließbach A, Dubois D et al (2002) Soil fertility and biodiversity in organic farming. Science 296:1694–1697. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1071148 Mandryk M, Reidsma P, Kanellopoulos A et al (2014) The role of farmers’ objectives in current farm practices and adaptation preferences: a case study in Flevoland, the Netherlands. Reg Environ Change 14:1463–1478. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0589-9 Mehdi B, Lehner B, Ludwig R (2018) Modelling crop land use change derived from influencing factors selected and ranked by farmers in north temperate agricultural regions. Sci Total Environ 631–632:407–420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.014 Mitchell RC, Carson RT (1989) Using surveys to value public goods: the contingent valuation method. Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. Moschitz H, Frick R (2021) City food flow analysis. A new method to study local consumption. Renew Agric Food Syst 36:150–162. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170520000150 Mozumder P, Vásquez WF (2018) Understanding hurricane evacuation decisions under contingent scenarios: a stated preference approach. Environ Resour Econ 71:407–425. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-017-0163-2 Musshoff O, Hirschauer N (2008) Adoption of organic farming in Germany and Austria: an integrative dynamic investment perspective. Agric Econ 39:135–145. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00321.x Nainggolan D, Termansen M, Reed MS et al (2013) Farmer typology, future scenarios and the implications for ecosystem service provision: a case study from south-eastern Spain. Reg Environ Change 13:601–614. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-011-0261-6 Neuteleers S, Engelen B (2015) Talking money: how market-based valuation can undermine environmental protection. Ecol Econ 117:253–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.06.022 Niskanen O, Tienhaara A, Haltia E, Pouta E (2021) Farmers’ heterogeneous preferences towards results-based environmental policies. Land Use Policy 102:105227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105227 Nyberg Y, Wetterlind J, Jonsson M, Öborn I (2021) Factors affecting smallholder adoption of adaptation and coping measures to deal with rainfall variability. Int J Agric Sustain 19:175–198. https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2021.1895574 Öhlmér B, Olson K, Brehmer B (1998) Understanding farmers’ decision making processes and improving managerial assistance. Agric Econ 18:273–290. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.1998.tb00505.x Padel S, Lampkin N, Foster C (1999) Influence of policy support on the development of organic farming in the European Union. Int Plan Stud 4:303–315. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563479908721744 Planning Association East (2023) CentropeMAP CentropeSTATISTICS. www.centropemap.org. Accessed 20 Apr 2023 Penn JM, Hu W (2018) Understanding hypothetical bias: an enhanced meta-analysis. Am J Agric Econ 100:1186–1206. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay021 Pradhan P, Lüdeke MKB, Reusser DE, Kropp JP (2014) Food self-sufficiency across scales: how local can we go? Environ Sci Technol 48:9463–9470. https://doi.org/10.1021/es5005939 Reganold JP, Wachter JM (2016) Organic agriculture in the twenty-first century. Nat Plants 2:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/nplants.2015.221 Reilly M, Willenbockel D (2010) Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling. Philos Trans R Soc Lond Ser B Biological sci 365:3049–3063. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0141 Renner A, Cadillo-Benalcazar JJ, Benini L, Giampietro M (2020) Environmental pressure of the European agricultural system: anticipating the biophysical consequences of internalization. Ecosyst Serv 46:101195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101195 Rickards L, Howden SM (2012) Transformational adaptation: agriculture and climate change. Crop Pasture Sci 63:240–250. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP11172 Rodriguez JM, Molnar JJ, Fazio RA et al (2009) Barriers to adoption of sustainable agriculture practices: change agent perspectives. Renew Agric Food Syst 24:60–71. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170508002421 Rosenzweig C, Tubiello FN (2007) Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture: an analysis of potential synergies. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 12:855–873. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-007-9103-8 Rüschhoff J, Hubatsch C, Priess J et al (2021) Potentials and perspectives of food self-sufficiency in urban areas—a case study from Leipzig. Renew Agric Food Syst 37:227–236. https://doi.org/10.1017/S174217052100048X Samuelson W, Zeckhauser R (1988) Status quo bias in decision making. J Risk Uncertain 1:7–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00055564 Sánchez B, Álvaro-Fuentes J, Cunningham R, Iglesias A (2016) Towards mitigation of greenhouse gases by small changes in farming practices: understanding local barriers in Spain. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 21:995–1028. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9562-7 Sattler C, Nagel UJ (2010) Factors affecting farmers’ acceptance of conservation measures—a case study from north-eastern Germany. Land Use Policy 27:70–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.02.002 Schermer M (2015) From “food from nowhere” to “food from here:” changing producer–consumer relations in Austria. Agric Hum Values 32:121–132. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-014-9529-z Schlich E, Fleissner U (2005) The ecology of scale: assessment of regional energy turnover and comparison with global food. Int J Life Cycle Assess 10:219–223. https://doi.org/10.1065/lca2004.09.180.9 Smit B, Skinner MW (2002) Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 7:85–114. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015862228270 Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 16:282–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008 Smit B, McNabb D, Smithers J (1996) Agricultural adaptation to climatic variation. Clim Change 33:7–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140511 Springmann M, Clark M, Mason-D’Croz D et al (2018) Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits. Nat 562:519–525. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0 Statistik Austria (2022) Bevölkerungsstand 2017. https://data.statistik.gv.at/web/meta.jsp?dataset=OGD_bevstandjbab2002_BevStand_2017. Accessed 20 Apr 2023 Statistik Austria (2023) Gliederung Österreichs in Gemeinden. https://www.data.gv.at/katalog/dataset/566c99be-b436-365e-af4f-27be6c536358. Accessed 20 Apr 2023 Statistics Vienna (2022) Vienna in figures 2022. Statistics Vienna, Vienna Stringer LC, Fraser EDG, Harris D et al (2020) Adaptation and development pathways for different types of farmers. Environ Sci Policy 104:174–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.10.007 Šūmane S, Kunda I, Knickel K et al (2018) Local and farmers’ knowledge matters! How integrating informal and formal knowledge enhances sustainable and resilient agriculture. J Rural Stud 59:232–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.01.020 Sutherland L-A, Burton RJF, Ingram J et al (2012) Triggering change: towards a conceptualisation of major change processes in farm decision-making. J Environ Manag 104:142–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.03.013 Therond O, Belhouchette H, Janssen S et al (2009) Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: the example of the SEAMLESS integrated framework. Environ Sci Policy 12:619–630. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.01.013 Thomson KJ, Tansey AW (1982) Intentions surveys in farming. J Agric Econ 33:83–88. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.1982.tb00714.x Tranter RB, Swinbank A, Wooldridge MJ et al (2007) Implications for food production, land use and rural development of the European Union’s Single Farm Payment: indications from a survey of farmers’ intentions in Germany, Portugal and the UK. Food Policy 32:656–671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2007.04.001 Trujillo-Barrera A, Pennings JME, Hofenk D (2016) Understanding producers’ motives for adopting sustainable practices: the role of expected rewards, risk perception and risk tolerance. Eur Rev Agric Econ 43:359–382. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbv038 Weltin M, Zasada I, Franke C et al (2017) Analysing behavioural differences of farm households: an example of income diversification strategies based on european farm survey data. Land Use Policy 62:172–184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.11.041 Wens MLK, Mwangi MN, van Loon AF, Aerts JCJH (2021) Complexities of drought adaptive behaviour: linking theory to data on smallholder farmer adaptation decisions. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 63:102435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102435 Westley FR, Tjornbo O, Schultz L et al (2013) A theory of transformative agency in linked social-ecological systems. Ecol Soc 18:27. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05072-180327 Whitehead JC, Johnson BK, Mason DS, Walker GJ (2013) Consumption benefits of National Hockey League game trips estimated from revealed and stated preference demand data. Econ Inq 51:1012–1025. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2011.00397.x Wiskerke JSC, Viljoen A (2012) Sustainable urban food provisioning: challenges for scientists, policymakers, planners and designers. In: Viljoen A, Wiskerke JSC (eds) Sustainable food planning – evolving theory and practice. Wageningen Academic Publishers, Wageningen, pp 19–36 Wreford A, Adger WN (2010) Adaptation in agriculture: historic effects of heat waves and droughts on UK agriculture. Int J Agric Sustain 8:278–289. https://doi.org/10.3763/ijas.2010.0482 Xu Q, Huet S, Poix C et al (2018) Why do farmers not convert to organic farming? Modeling conversion to organic farming as a major change. Nat Resour Model 31:e12171. https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12171 Xu Q, Huet S, Perret E, Deffuant G (2020) do farm characteristics or social dynamics explain the conversion to organic farming by dairy farmers? An agent-based model of dairy farming in 27 French cantons. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 23:4. https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4204 Yeung AWK (2018) Data visualization by alluvial diagrams for bibliometric reports, systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Curr Sci 115:1942–1947 Zasada I (2011) Multifunctional peri-urban agriculture—a review of societal demands and the provision of goods and services by farming. Land Use Policy 28:639–648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.01.008 Zimmermann A, Heckelei T, Domínguez IP (2009) Modelling farm structural change for integrated ex-ante assessment: review of methods and determinants. Environ Sci Policy 12:601–618. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.01.014