Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches
Tóm tắt
The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. The process-based model of climate suitability showed good correspondence with historical records of malaria cases. An analysis of the statistical models showed that mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was the major factor explaining the distribution of malaria, further supporting the use of the temperature-driven processed-based model. The risk maps indicate that large areas of central and southern England could support malaria transmission today and could increase in extent in the future. Confidence in these predictions is increased by the concordance between the processed-based and statistical models. Although the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Woolhouse M: Population biology of emerging and re-emerging pathogens. Trends Microbiol. 2002, 10: S3-7. 10.1016/S0966-842X(02)02428-9.
Cleavland S, Laurenson M, Taylor L: Diseases of humans and their domestic mammals: pathogen characteristics, host range and the risk of emergence. Phil Trans Roy Soc Lond B. 2001, 356: 991-999.
Morens D, Folkers G, Fauci A: The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Nature. 2004, 430: 242-249. 10.1038/nature02759.
Taylor L, Latham S, Woolhouse M: Risk factors for human disease emergence. Phil Trans Roy Soc Lond B. 2001, 356: 983-989. 10.1098/rstb.2001.0975.
Guebler D: The global emergence/resurgence of arboviral diseases as public health problems. Arch Med Res. 2002, 33: 330-342. 10.1016/S0188-4409(02)00378-8.
Confalonieri U, Menne B, Akhtar R, Ebi K, Hauengue M, Kovats R, Revich B, Woodward A: Human health. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by: Parry M, Canziani O, Palutikof J, van der Linden P, Hanson C. 2007, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 391-431.
WHO: Climate change and human health. 1996, Geneva: World Health Organization
Dobson MJ: Contours of death and disease in early modern England. 1997, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
James SP: Malaria at home and abroad. 1920, London: John Bale, Sons & Danielsson
Newman G: Reports and papers on malaria contracted in England, 1918. Rep Loc Govern Board Publ Health Medl Subj. 1919, 123: 1-42.
Blacklock B: Notes on a case of indigenous infection with P. falciparum. Ann Trop Med Parasit. 1921, 15: 59-72.
Hutchinson RA, Lindsay SW: Malaria and deaths in the English marshes. Lancet. 2006, 367: 1947-1951. 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68850-8.
Shute PG, Maryon M: Malaria in England past, present and future. Roy Soc Health. 1974, 1: 23-29 & 49
Linton Y-M, Lee A, Curtis F: Discovery of a third member of the Maculipennis complex in SW England. Europ Mosq Bull. 2005, 19: 5-9.
James SP: The disappearance of malaria from England. Proc Roy Soc Med. 1929, 23: 71-85.
Jetten T, Takken W: Anophelism without malaria in Europe. A review of the ecology and distribution of the genus Anopheles in Europe. 1994, Wageningen: Wageningen Agricultural University
Hay S, Guerra C, Tatem A, Noor A, Snow R: The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, present and future. Lancet Infect Dis. 2004, 4: 327-336. 10.1016/S1473-3099(04)01043-6.
Snow R, Guerra C, Noor A, Myint H, Hay S: The global distribution of clinical episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Nature. 2005, 434: 214-217. 10.1038/nature03342.
Rogers DJ, Randolph SE: The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science. 2000, 289: 1763-1766. 10.1126/science.289.5478.391b.
Martens P: Health and climate change. Modelling the impacts of global warming and ozone depletion. 1998, London: Earthscan Publications
Lindsay SW, Thomas CJ: Global warming and risk of vivax malaria in Great Britain. Glob Chan Hum Health. 2001, 2: 80-84. 10.1023/A:1011995115713.
Gill CA: The influence of humidity on the life history of mosquitoes and on their power to transmit infection. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1921, 14: 77-82. 10.1016/S0035-9203(20)90152-9.
Anderson R, May R: Infectious diseases of humans. 1991, Oxford: Oxford University Press
Dietz K: The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases. Stat Meth Med Res. 1993, 2: 23-41. 10.1177/096228029300200103.
Detinova T: Age-grouping methods in Diptera of medical importance. 1962, Geneva: World Health Organisation
Boyd MF: Malariology. A comprehensive survey of all apsects of this group of diseases from a global standpoint. 1949, Philadelphia and London: Saunders, W.B.
Stratman-Thomas WK: The Influence of temperature on Plasmodium vivax. Am J Trop Med. 1940, 20: 703-714.
Macdonald G: The epidemiology and control of malaria. 1957, London: Oxford University Press
James S: Some general results of a study of induced malaria in England. Trans Roy Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1931, 24: 477-525. 10.1016/S0035-9203(31)90068-0.
Fuller R, Groom G, Jones A: The Land Cover Map of Great Britain: an automated classification of Landsat Thematic Mapper data. Photogram Engineer Rem Sens. 1994, 60: 553-562.
Nuttall G, Cobett L, Strangeways-Pigg T: Studies in relation to malaria. I. The geographical distribution of Anopheles in relation to the former distribution of ague in England. J Hyg. 1901, 1: 4-44. 10.1017/S0022172400000048.
Parker D, Legg T, Folland C: A new daily Central England Temperature Series, 1772-1991. Int J Climatol. 12: 317-342. 10.1002/joc.3370120402.
Great Britain Historical Database Online. [http://hds.essex.ac.uk]
UKBORDERS. [http://edina.ac.uk/ukborders/]
Burnham KP, Anderson DR: Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical-theoretic approach. 2002, London: Springer-Verlag, 2
Richards SA: Dealing with overdispersed count data in applied ecology. J Appl Ecol. 2008, 45: 218-227. 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01377.x.
Lindsay S, Thomas C: Global warming and risk of vivax malaria in Great Britain. Glob Chan Hum Health. 2001, 2: 80-84. 10.1023/A:1011995115713.
Lang WD: A map showing the known distribution in England and Wales of the Anopheline mosquitoes, with explanatory text and notes. 1918, London: British Museum (Natural History)
Rees AT, Snow KR: The distribution of the genus Anopheles in Britain. Dipt Dig. 1990, 6: 7-19.
Snow KR, Rees AT, Bulbeck SJ: A provisional atlas of the mosquitoes of Britain. 1998, London: University of East London
Marshall J: The British Mosquitoes. 1938, London: W. Clowes & Sons
Hutchinson RA, Lindsay SW: Perceived nuisance of mosquitoes on the Isle of Sheppey, Kent, UK. J biosoc Sci. 2006, 38: 701-712. 10.1017/S0021932005000994.
Tempelis C, Lofy M: A modified precipitin method for identification of mosquito blood-meals. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1963, 12: 825-831.
HPA: Malaria imported into the UK, 2003: implications for those advising travellers. 2004, Health Protection Agency
Roshanravan B, Kari E, Gilman R, Cabrera L, Lee E, Metcalfe J, Calderon M, Lescano A, Montenegro S, Calampa C: Endemic malaria in the Peruvian Amazon region of Iquitos. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2003, 69: 45-52.
Elsom D: Deaths and injuries caused by lightning in the United Kingdom: analyses of two databases. Atmosph Res. 2001, 56: 325-334. 10.1016/S0169-8095(00)00083-1.
Bruce-Chwatt L, de Zulueta J: The rise and fall of malaria in Europe. 1980, London: Oxford University Press
Takken W, Martens P, Bogers RE: Environmental change and malaria risk. Global and local implications. 2005, Dordrecht: Springer
Becker N: Life strategies of mosquitoes as an adaptation to their habitats. Bull Soc Vector Ecol. 1989, 14: 6-25.
Martens P, Kovats RS, Nijhof S, de Vries P, Livermore MTJ, Bradley DJ, Cox J, McMichael AJ: Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria. Glob Environ Change. 1999, 9: S89-S107. 10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00020-5.
Linard C, Poncon N, Fontenille D, Lambin E: A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France. Ecol Model. 2009, 220: 160-174. 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.09.001.
Linard C, Poncon N, Fontenille D, Lambin E: Risk of malaria reemergence in southern France: Testing scenarios with a Multiagent Simulation Model. Ecohealth. 2009, 6: 1-10.1007/s10393-009-0236-y.
Schroder W, Schmidt G: Modelling of temperature-dependent Malaria risk in Lower Saxony, Germany. Parasitol Res. 2008, 103: S152-10.1007/s00436-008-1051-z.
Casimiro E, Calheiros J, Santos F, Kovats S: National assessment of human health effects of climate change in Portugal: Approach and key findings. Environ Health Perspec. 2006, 114: 1950-1956.