Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) - Tập 371 Số 6526 - Trang 288-292 - 2021
Lewis Buss1, Carlos A. Prete2, Claudia M. M. Abrahim3, Alfredo Mendrone4,5, Tassila Salomon6,7, Cesar de Almeida‐Neto4,5, Rafael Freitas de Oliveira França8, Maria Carolina T. D. Belotti2, Maria P. S. S. Carvalho3, Allyson Guimarães Costa3, Myuki Alfaia Esashika Crispim3, Suzete C. Ferreira4,5, Nelson Abrahim Fraiji3, Susie Gurzenda9, Charles Whittaker10, Leonardo Tadashi Kamaura11, Pedro Losco Takecian11, Pedro S. Peixoto11, Márcio K. Oikawa12, Anna S. Nishiya4,5, Vanderson Rocha4,5, Nanci A. Salles4, Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos13, Martirene A. da Silva3, Brian Custer14,15, Kris V. Parag16, Manoel Barral‐Netto17, Moritz U. G. Kraemer18, Rafael H. M. Pereira19, Oliver G. Pybus18, Michael P. Busch14,15, Márcia C. Castro9, Christopher Dye18, Vítor H. Nascimento2, Nuno R. Faria1,18,16, Éster Cerdeira Sabino1
1Departamento de Molestias Infecciosas e Parasitarias and Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
2Departamento de Engenharia de Sistemas Eletrônicos, Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
3Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil
4Fundação Pró-Sangue Hemocentro de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
5Laboratório de Investigação Médica em Patogênese e Terapia dirigida em Onco-Imuno-Hematologia (LIM-31), Departamento de Hematologia, Hospital das Clínicas HCFMUSP, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
6Faculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
7Fundação Hemominas–Fundação Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
8Department of Virology and Experimental Therapy, Institute Aggeu Magalhaes, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Brazil.
9Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
10Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
11Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
12Center of Mathematics, Computing and Cognition–Universidade Federal do ABC, São Paulo, Brazil.
13Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, Latin American Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
14University of California San Francisco, CA. USA
15Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, USA
16MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, London, UK.
17Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
18Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
19Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasília, Brazil

Tóm tắt

Attack rate in Manaus

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence peaked in Manaus, Brazil, in May 2020 with a devastating toll on the city's inhabitants, leaving its health services shattered and cemeteries overwhelmed. Buss et al. collected data from blood donors from Manaus and São Paulo, noted when transmission began to fall, and estimated the final attack rates in October 2020 (see the Perspective by Sridhar and Gurdasani). Heterogeneities in immune protection, population structure, poverty, modes of public transport, and uneven adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions mean that despite a high attack rate, herd immunity may not have been achieved. This unfortunate city has become a sentinel for how natural population immunity could influence future transmission. Events in Manaus reveal what tragedy and harm to society can unfold if this virus is left to run its course.

Science , this issue p. 288 ; see also p. 230

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American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Tập 371 Số 6526

288-292

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