No buck for the bang: revisiting the military-growth nexus
Tóm tắt
This paper investigates the empirical relationship between military spending and economic growth in a large panel of advanced and developing countries over the period 1984–2014, with a particular focus on whether the growth impact of military expenditures varies with the type and level of security threats. Although there is extensive literature on the military-growth nexus, there is still no consensus on the nature and magnitude of this relationship. Using an expansive dataset and controlling for country-specific effects and potential endogeneity, we revisit this issue and reach two firm conclusions. First, military spending has no statistically significant direct (positive) effect on growth. Second, the nature and level of security threats do not alter the relationship between military spending and growth. Overall, the empirical results documented in the study suggest that military spending is simply not important or large enough in most countries to have a meaningful impact on growth.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Acemoglu D (2009) Introduction to modern economic growth. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Aizenman J, Glick R (2006) Military expenditure, threats and growth. J Int Trade Econ Dev 15:129–155
Alptekin A, Levine P (2012) Military expenditure and economic growth: a meta-analysis. Eur J Polit Econ 28:636–650
Arellano M, Bond S (1991) Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Rev Econ Stud 58:277–297
Arellano M, Bover O (1995) another look at the instrumental-variable estimation of error-components models. J Econom 68:29–52
Aschauer D (1989) Is public expenditure productive? J Monet Econ 23:177–200
Barro R (1990) Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth. J Polit Econ 98:103–126
Barro R (1991) Economic growth in a cross section of countries. Q J Econ 106:407–433
Barro R, Sala-i-Martin X (1992) Convergence. J Polit Econ 100:223–251
Bayraktar N, Moreno-Dodson B (2015) How can public spending help you grow? An empirical analysis for developing countries. Bull Econ Res 67:30–64
Benoit E (1973) Defense and economic growth in developing countries. Lexington Books, Lexington
Benoit E (1978) Growth and defense in developing countries. Econ Dev Cult Change 26:271–280
Bergh A, Henrekson M (2011) Government size and growth: a survey and Interpretation of the evidence. J Econ Surv 25:872–897
Bleaney M, Gemmell N, Kneller R (1999) Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries. J Public Econ 74:171–190
Blundell R, Bond S (1998) Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. J Econom 87:115–143
Canning D, Pedroni P (2004) The effect of infrastructure on long-run economic growth, mimeo. Harvard University, Cambridge
Cappelen O, Gleditsch N, Bjerkhold O (1984) Military spending and economic growth in OECD countries. J Peace Econ 21:361–373
Chang H-C, Huang B-N, Yang C (2011) Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: a dynamic granger-causality approach. Econ Model 28:2416–2423
Clements B, Levy J (1994) Public education expenditure and other determinants of private investment in the caribbean. IMF Working Paper No. 94/122. International Monetary Fund, Washington
Collier P, Hoeffler A (2004) Greed and Grievance in civil war. Oxf Econ Pap 56:563–595
Deger S (1986) Military expenditure in third world countries: the economic effects. Routledge, Boston
Deger S, Smith R (1983) Military expenditure and growth in less developed countries. J Conflict Resolut 28:335–353
Devereux M, Love D (1994) The effects of factor taxation in a two-sector model of endogenous growth. Can J Econ 27:509–536
Diamond J (1989) Government expenditures and economic growth: an empirical investigation. IMF Working Paper No. 89/45. International Monetary Fund, Washington
Dunne P, Tian N (2013) Military expenditure and economic growth: a survey. Econ Peace Secur J 8:521–537
Dunne P, Vougas D (1999) Military spending and economic growth in South Africa. J Conflict Resolut 43:521–537
Easterly W, Rebelo S (1993) Fiscal policy and economic growth. J Monet Econ 32:417–458
Grier K, Tullock G (1989) An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth: 1951–80. J Monet Econ 24:259–276
Grossman P (1990) Government and growth: cross-sectional evidence. Public Choice 65:217–227
Gupta S, Clements B, Bhattacharya R, Chakravarti S (2004) Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low and middle income countries. Eur J Polit Econ 20:403–421
Holtz-Eakin D (1994) Public sector capital and the productivity puzzle. Rev Econ Stat 76:12–21
Hou N, Chen B (2013) Military expenditure and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from System GMM Estimates. Def Peace Econ 24:183–193
Im K, Pesaran M, Shin Y (2003) Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J Econom 115:53–74
King R, Rebelo S (1990) Public policy and economic growth: developing neoclassical implications. J Polit Econ 98:S126–S150
Kormendi R, Meguire P (1985) Macroeconomic determinants of growth: cross-country evidence. J Monet Econ 16:141–163
Landau D (1986) Government and economic growth in the less developed countries: an empirical study for 1960–1980. Econ Dev Cult Change 35:35–75
Levine R, Renelt D (1992) A sensitive analysis of cross-country growth regressions. Am Econ Rev 82:942–963
Lim D (1983) Another look at growth and defense in less developed countries. Econ Dev Cult Change 31:377–384
Miguel E, Satyanath S, Sergenti E (2004) Economic shocks and civil conflict: an instrumental variables approach. J Polit Econ 112:125–175
Otani I, Villanueva D (1990) Long-term growth in developing countries and its determinants: an empirical analysis. World Dev 18:769–783
Ram R (1986) Government size and economic growth: a new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data. Am Econ Rev 76:191–203
Ram R (1995) Defense expenditure and economic growth. In: Hartley K, Sandler T (eds) Handbook of defense economics, vol 1. Elsevier, Amsterdam
Rebelo S (1991) Long-run policy analysis and long-run growth. J Polit Econ 99:500–521
Roodman D (2009) How to do xtabond2: an introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. Stata J 9:86–136
Sala-i-Martin X, Doppelhofer G, Miller R (2004) Determinants of long-term growth: a bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach. Am Econ Rev 94:813–835
Sandler T, Hartley K (1995) The economics of defence. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Sattar Z (1993) Public expenditure and economic performance: a comparison of developed and low-income developing economies. J Int Dev 5:27–49
Scully G (1989) Size of the state, economic growth, and the efficient utilization of national resources. Public Choice 63:149–164
Shieh J, Chang W, Lai C (2007) An endogenous growth model of capital and arms accumulation. Def Peace Econ 13:557–575
Smith J, Tuttle M (2008) Does defense spending really promote aggregate output in the United States. Def Peace Econ 19:435–447
Yakovlev P (2007) Arms trade, military spending, and economic growth. Def Peace Econ 18:317–338
Yildirim J, Sezgin S, Ocal N (2005) Military expenditure and economic growth in middle eastern countries: a dynamic panel data analysis. Def Peace Econ 16:283–295