Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Liangjie Wang1, Shuai Ma1, Yong-Peng Qiao2, Jinchi Zhang1
1Co-Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Provincial Key Lab of Soil Erosion and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2School of Computer Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110006, China

Tóm tắt

Development of suitable ecological protection and restoration policies for sustainable management needs to assess the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on ecosystem services. The two ecological shelters and three belts (TSTB) are significant for improving ecosystem services and ensuring China’s and global ecological security. In this study, we simulated land use in 2050 and estimated the spatial distribution pattern of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil conservation from 2010 to 2050 under future climate change. The results showed that water yield, NPP, and soil conservation exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, while in terms of the temporal pattern, water yield and NPP increased, but soil conservation decreased. Water yield was mainly influenced by precipitation, NPP was affected by temperature and implementation of ecological restoration, and soil conservation was controlled by precipitation and slope. There was a strong spatial heterogeneity between trade-offs and synergies. In terms of the temporal, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and NPP. However, the relationships between water yield and soil conservation, and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs. In the process of ecological construction, it is necessary to consider the differences between overall and local trade-offs and synergies, as well as formulate sustainable ecological management policies according to local conditions. Understanding the response of ecosystem services to future climate change and land use policies can help address the challenges posed by climate change and achieve sustainable management of natural resources.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Costanza, 1997, The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital, Nature, 387, 253, 10.1038/387253a0

Daily, G.C. (1997). Nature’s Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems, Island Press.

Cochran, 2020, Earth observation-based ecosystem services indicators for national and subnational reporting of the sustainable development goals, Remote Sens. Environ., 244, 14, 10.1016/j.rse.2020.111796

Dou, 2020, Mapping ecosystem services bundles for analyzing spatial trade-offs in inner Mongolia, China, J. Clean. Prod., 256, 15, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120444

Jeanloz, 2017, Hydrogeomorphic Ecosystem Responses to Natural and Anthropogenic Changes in the Loess Plateau of China, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 45, 223, 10.1146/annurev-earth-063016-020552

Rodriguez, 2006, Trade-offs across space, time, and ecosystem services, Ecol. Soc., 11, 14, 10.5751/ES-01667-110128

Zheng, 2019, Realizing the values of natural capital for inclusive, sustainable development: Informing China’s new ecological development strategy, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 8623, 10.1073/pnas.1819501116

Bai, 2018, Developing China’s Ecological Redline Policy using ecosystem services assessments for land use planning, Nat. Commun., 9, 13, 10.1038/s41467-018-05306-1

Gao, 2019, Embedding spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage into urban agglomeration ecosystem management—A case study of the Yangtze River Delta, China, J. Clean. Prod., 237, 12, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117764

Olander, 2018, Benefit relevant indicators: Ecosystem services measures that link ecological and social outcomes, Ecol. Indic., 85, 1262, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.12.001

Peng, 2019, Simulating the impact of Grain-for-Green Programme on ecosystem services trade-offs in Northwestern Yunnan, China, Ecosyst. Serv., 39, 9, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.100998

Fu, 2017, Effects of land use and climate change on ecosystem services in Central Asia’s arid regions: A case study in Altay Prefecture, China, Sci. Total Environ., 607, 633, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.241

Li, S.C., Bing, Z.L., and Jin, G. (2019). Spatially Explicit Mapping of Soil Conservation Service in Monetary Units Due to Land Use/Cover Change for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. Remote Sens., 11.

Sannigrahi, 2020, Examining effects of climate change and land use dynamic on biophysical and economic values of ecosystem services of a natural reserve region, J. Clean. Prod., 257, 24, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120424

Pham, 2019, Coupling scenarios of climate and land-use change with assessments of potential ecosystem services at the river basin scale, Ecosyst. Serv., 40, 12, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101045

Shirmohammadi, 2020, Impacts of future climate and land use change on water yield in a semiarid basin in Iran, Land Degrad. Dev., 31, 1252, 10.1002/ldr.3554

Zarrineh, 2020, Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on multiple ecosystem services in Western Switzerland, Sci. Total Environ., 708, 11, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135212

Fu, 2017, The Impact of Global Change on Ecosystem Services, Chin. Basic Sci., 19, 14

Liu, 2020, Planning sustainable urban landscape under the stress of climate change in the drylands of northern China: A scenario analysis based on LUSD-urban model, J. Clean. Prod., 244, 14, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118709

Nolan, 2018, Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, Science, 361, 920, 10.1126/science.aan5360

Liu, 2019, Impacts of urbanization-induced land-use changes on ecosystem services: A case study of the Pearl River Delta Metropolitan Region, China, Ecol. Indic., 98, 228, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.10.054

Vezzoli, 2015, Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM, Sci. Total Environ., 521, 346, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.096

Wang, 2018, Land use/land cover change and the effects on ecosystem services in the Hengduan Mountain region, China, Ecosyst. Serv., 34, 55, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.09.008

Liu, 2008, Ecological and socioeconomic effects of China’s policies for ecosystem services, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 9477, 10.1073/pnas.0706436105

Ouyang, 2020, Using gross ecosystem product (GEP) to value nature in decision making, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 14593, 10.1073/pnas.1911439117

Ouyang, 2016, Improvements in ecosystem services from investments in natural capital, Science, 352, 1455, 10.1126/science.aaf2295

Yue, 2020, Large scale reforestation of farmlands on sloping hills in South China karst, Landsc. Ecol., 35, 1445, 10.1007/s10980-020-01026-4

Wen, 2020, Spatiotemporal analysis of water-related ecosystem services under ecological restoration scenarios: A case study in northern Shaanxi, China, Sci. Total Environ., 720, 13, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137477

Feng, 2013, How ecological restoration alters ecosystem services: An analysis of carbon sequestration in China’s Loess Plateau, Sci. Rep., 3, 5, 10.1038/srep02846

Feng, 2016, Revegetation in China’s Loess Plateau is approaching sustainable water resource limits, Nat. Clim. Chang., 6, 1019, 10.1038/nclimate3092

Hou, 2017, Temporal variation and spatial scale dependency of ecosystem service interactions: A case study on the central Loess Plateau of China, Landsc. Ecol., 32, 1201, 10.1007/s10980-017-0497-8

Wang, 2020, Trade-offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Karst Area of China Driven by Grain-for-Green Program, Chin. Geogr. Sci., 30, 101, 10.1007/s11769-020-1098-z

Wang, 2017, Significant trade-off for the impact of Grain-for-Green Programme on ecosystem services in North-western Yunnan, China, Sci. Total Environ., 574, 57, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.026

Jia, 2014, The tradeoff and synergy between ecosystem services in the Grain-for-Green areas in Northern Shaanxi, China, Ecol. Indic., 43, 103, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.02.028

Li, 2019, Bundling ecosystem services for detecting their interactions driven by large-scale vegetation restoration: Enhanced services while depressed synergies, Ecol. Indic., 99, 332, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.12.041

Su, 2020, Scale effects of sediment retention, water yield, and net primary production: A case-study of the Chinese Loess Plateau, Land Degrad. Dev., 31, 1408, 10.1002/ldr.3536

Wen, 2020, Assessment of ecosystem services in restoration programs in China: A systematic review, Ambio, 49, 584, 10.1007/s13280-019-01214-w

Fu, 2020, Promoting Geography for Sustainability, Geogr. Sustain., 1, 1, 10.1016/j.geosus.2020.02.003

Meinshausen, 2011, The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Clim. Chang., 109, 213, 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z

Taylor, 2012, an overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485, 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

Yuan, 2017, NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation of China to climate change in the past and future, J. Geogr. Sci., 27, 131, 10.1007/s11442-017-1368-6

Tirupathi, 2020, Investigating the impact of climate and land-use land cover changes on hydrological predictions over the Krishna river basin under present and future scenarios, Sci. Total Environ., 721, 19

Chen, 2019, The spatial association of ecosystem services with land use and land cover change at the county level in China, 1995–2015, Sci. Total Environ., 669, 459, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.139

Fu, B.J., Wang, X.F., and Feng, X.M. (2017). National Barrier Zone Ecosystem Assessment, Science Press. (In Chinese).

Wang, 2019, Ecosystem pattern change and its influencing factors of “two barriers and three belts”, Chin. J. Ecol., 38, 2138

Yin, 2019, Trade-offs and synergy between ecosystem services in National Barrier Zone, Geogr. Res., 38, 2162

Liu, 2012, Statistical downscaling of daily climate variables for climate change impact assessment over New South Wales, Australia, Clim. Chang., 115, 629, 10.1007/s10584-012-0464-y

Feng, 2012, Regional effects of vegetation restoration on water yield across the Loess Plateau, China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2617, 10.5194/hess-16-2617-2012

Sun, X.P. (2017). Evaluation of Ecosystem Services in Shangri-La Based on InVEST Model, Yunnan Normal University. (In Chinese).

Yang, 2019, Estimation of water provision service for monsoon catchments of South China: Applicability of the InVEST model, Landsc. Urban Plan., 182, 133, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.10.011

Arnoldus, H.M.J., Boodt, M.D., and Gabriels, D. (1980). An Approximation of the Rainfall Factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation, John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

Qin, 2019, Setting conservation priorities based on ecosystem services—A case study of the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region, Sci. Total Environ., 650, 3062, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.305

Zhang, 2008, Soil erodibility and its estimation for agricultural soils in China, J. Arid. Environ., 72, 1002, 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2007.11.018

Piao, 2005, Changes in vegetation net primary productivity from 1982 to 1999 in China, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycle, 19, 19, 10.1029/2004GB002274

Zhu, 2006, Simulation of maximum light use efficiency for some typical vegetation types in China, Chin. Sci. Bull., 51, 457, 10.1007/s11434-006-0457-1

Liu, 2017, A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects, Landsc. Urban Plan., 168, 94, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.09.019

Chen, 2020, Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways, Nat. Commun., 11, 12

Liu, 2020, Assessing and predicting changes in ecosystem service values based on land use/cover change in the Bohai Rim coastal zone, Ecol. Indic., 111, 12, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.106004

Xu, 2020, Projecting China’s future water footprint under the shared socio-economic pathways, J. Environ. Manag., 260, 13, 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110102

Zhang, 2016, Impacts of climate change on streamflows under RCP scenarios: A case study in Xin River Basin, China, Atmos. Res., 178, 521, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.04.018

Bai, 2020, Scale effects on the relationships between land characteristics and ecosystem services—A case study in Taihu Lake Basin, China, Sci. Total Environ., 716, 10, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137083

Wang, 2020, Spatial-temporal changes in ecosystem services and the trade-off relationship in mountain regions: A case study of Hengduan Mountain region in Southwest China, J. Clean. Prod., 264, 121573, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121573

Chen, 2020, Quantifying water provision service supply, demand and spatial flow for land use optimization: A case study in the YanHe watershed, Ecosyst. Serv., 43, 13, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101117

Juanita, 2019, Assessing the effects of past and future land cover changes in ecosystem services, disservices and biodiversity: A case study in Barranquilla Metropolitan Area (BMA), Colombia, Ecosyst. Serv., 37, 12, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.100915

Kindu, 2016, Changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands, Sci. Total Environ., 547, 137, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.127

Bai, 2019, Impact of land use and climate change on water-related ecosystem services in Kentucky, USA, Ecol. Indic., 102, 51, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.01.079

Lyu, 2019, A quantitative assessment of hydrological responses to climate change and human activities at spatiotemporal within a typical catchment on the Loess Plateau, China, Quat. Int., 527, 1, 10.1016/j.quaint.2019.03.027

Farley, 2005, Effects of afforestation on water yield: A global synthesis with implications for policy, Glob. Chang. Biol., 11, 1565, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01011.x

Lang, 2017, Responses of the water-yield ecosystem service to climate and land use change in Sancha River Basin, China, Phys. Chem. Earth, 101, 102, 10.1016/j.pce.2017.06.003

Gao, 2017, The impact of land-use change on water-related ecosystem services: A study of the Guishui River Basin, Beijing, China, J. Clean. Prod., 163, S148, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.01.049

Berdugo, 2020, Global ecosystem thresholds driven by aridity, Science, 367, 787, 10.1126/science.aay5958

Li, 2018, Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: A case study in Chengdu City, Resour. Conserv. Recycl., 132, 291, 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009

Zhu, 2018, Projection of changes in terrestrial ecosystem net primary productivity under future global warming scenarios based on CMIP5 models, Clim. Chang. Res., 14, 31

Ma, 2020, Assessment of soil conservation services of four river basins in Central Asia under global warming scenarios, Geoderma, 375, 14, 10.1016/j.geoderma.2020.114533

McMichael, 2006, Climate change and human health: Present and future risks, Lancet, 367, 859, 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68079-3

Chiabai, 2018, The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework, Sci. Total Environ., 635, 1191, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.323

Salmond, 2016, Health and climate related ecosystem services provided by street trees in the urban environment, Environ. Health, 15, 17, 10.1186/s12940-016-0103-6

Tian, 2016, Trade-offs among ecosystem services in a typical Karst watershed, SW China, Sci. Total Environ., 566, 1297, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.190

Pickard, 2017, Forecasts of urbanization scenarios reveal trade-offs between landscape change and ecosystem services, Landsc. Ecol., 32, 617, 10.1007/s10980-016-0465-8

Ameztegui, 2020, Future trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests under global change scenarios, Ecosyst. Serv., 45, 101174, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101174

Forio, 2020, Bayesian Belief Network models as trade-off tools of ecosystem services in the Guayas River Basin in Ecuador, Ecosyst. Serv., 44, 12, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101124

Li, 2020, Enhancing protected areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, Ecosyst. Serv., 43, 11, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101090

Fang, 2020, Quantifying variations in ecosystem services in altitude-associated vegetation types in a tropical region of China, Sci. Total Environ., 726, 10, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138565