Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) - Tập 369 Số 6500 - Trang 208-211 - 2020
Henrik Salje1,2,3, Cécile Tran Kiem4,3, Noémie Lefrancq3, Noémie Courtejoie5, Paolo Bosetti3, Juliette Paireau3,6, Alessio Andronico3, Nathanaël Hozé3, Jehanne Richet5, Claire-Lise Dubost5, Yann Le Strat6, Justin Lessler1, D Lévy-Brühl6, Arnaud Fontanet7,8, Lulla Opatowski9,10, Pierre‐Yves Boëlle11, Simon Cauchemez3
1Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
2Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
3Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France
4Collège doctoral, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
5DREES, Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé, Paris, France
6Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint-Maurice, France
7Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
8PACRI Unit, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France
9Anti-infective Evasion and Pharmacoepidemiology Team, CESP, Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, INSERM U1018, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, France
10Epidemiology and Modelling of Antibiotic Evasion Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
11Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Paris, France

Tóm tắt

COVID-19 pandemic in France Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exacted a heavy toll in France during March and April 2020. Quarantine measures were effective in reducing transmission by 84%, and some relaxation of social isolation was expected in May. Salje et al. fit transmission models for the epidemic in France to hospital admissions. The authors forecast that 2.9 million people will have been infected by 11 May, representing 4.4% of the population—a value inadequate for herd immunity. Daily critical care hospitalizations should reduce from several hundreds to tens of cases, but control will remain a delicate balancing act. Any relaxation of lockdown in France will have to be carefully controlled and monitored to avoid undermining more optimistic forecasts. Science , this issue p. 208

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American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Tập 369 Số 6500

208-211

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