Exploring the value of online product reviews in forecasting sales: The case of motion pictures

Journal of Interactive Marketing - Tập 21 - Trang 23-45 - 2007
Chrysanthos Dellarocas1, Xiaoquan (Michael) Zhang2, Neveen F. Awad3
1Associate Professor of Information Systems, R.H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland in College Park
2Assistant Professor, Department of Information Systems & Management, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) Business School
3Assistant Professor in Information Systems and Manufacturing, School of Business Administration, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI

Tóm tắt

The growing popularity of online product review forums invites the development of models and metrics that allow firms to harness these new sources of information for decision support. Our work contributes in this direction by proposing a novel family of diffusion models that capture some of the unique aspects of the entertainment industry and testing their performance in the context of very early postrelease motion picture revenue forecasting. We show that the addition of online product review metrics to a benchmark model that includes prerelease marketing, theater availability and professional critic reviews substantially increases its forecasting accuracy; the forecasting accuracy of our best model outperforms that of several previously published models. In addition to its contributions in diffusion theory, our study reconciles some inconsistencies among previous studies with respect to what online review metrics are statistically significant in forecasting entertainment good sales.

Tài liệu tham khảo

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Journal of Interactive Marketing

Tập 21

23-45

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