Global Hydrological Cycles and World Water Resources

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) - Tập 313 Số 5790 - Trang 1068-1072 - 2006
Taikan Oki1,2,3,4, Shinjiro Kanae1,2,3,4
1Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan.
2Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan
3Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4-1-8 Honcho, Kawaguchishi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.
4Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, 457-7, Motoyama, Kamigamo, Kita-ku, Kyoto, 603-8047, Japan

Tóm tắt

Water is a naturally circulating resource that is constantly recharged. Therefore, even though the stocks of water in natural and artificial reservoirs are helpful to increase the available water resources for human society, the flow of water should be the main focus in water resources assessments. The climate system puts an upper limit on the circulation rate of available renewable freshwater resources (RFWR). Although current global withdrawals are well below the upper limit, more than two billion people live in highly water-stressed areas because of the uneven distribution of RFWR in time and space. Climate change is expected to accelerate water cycles and thereby increase the available RFWR. This would slow down the increase of people living under water stress; however, changes in seasonal patterns and increasing probability of extreme events may offset this effect. Reducing current vulnerability will be the first step to prepare for such anticipated changes.

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We thank our research group members at Institute of Industrial Science The University of Tokyo for comments and support particularly Y. Shen M. Bengtsson Y. Agata H. Kim and N. Utsumi. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for comments. For financial support we thank Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST) the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN) the special coordination funds for promoting science and technology by the Japan Cabinet Office and Global Environment Research Fund (GERF) of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.