A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II

Nature Communications - Tập 7 Số 1
Fiona E. Matthews1, Blossom C. M. Stephan2, Louise Robinson2, Carol Jagger2, Linda Barnes3, Antony Arthur4, Carol Brayne3, Adelina Comas‐Herrera5, Raphael Wittenberg5, Tom Dening6, Cherie McCracken7, Catherine J. Moody8, Blair A. Parry9, E. Green3, Richard Barnes3, Jane Warwick3, Ling Gao1, Andrew Mattison2, Christine Baldwin10, Stéphanie Harrison11, Bob Woods12, Ian McKeith13, Paul G. Ince14, Stephen B. Wharton14, G Forster14
1MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge, CB2 0SR, UK
2Institute of Health and Society, Faculty of Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle, NE4 5PL, UK
3Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, Cambridge University, Cambridge, CB2 0SR, UK
4School of Health Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
5Personal Social Services Research Unit (PSSRU), London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AE, UK,
6Institute of Mental Health, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2TU, UK,
7Institute of Psychology, Health and Society, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, UK
8Medical Research Council, London WC2B 4AN, UK,
9Department Social Science, Health & Medicine, Kings College, London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, UK,
10Alzheimer's Society, Devon House, London E1W 1LB, UK,
11Royal Devon & Exeter Hospital, Exeter EX2 5DW, UK,
12Dementia Services Development Centre (DSDC Wales), Bangor University, Bangor LL57 2PZ, UK,
13Newcastle University Institute for Ageing, Newcastle upon Tyne NE4 5PL, UK,
14Department of Neuroscience, Sheffield Institute for Translational Neuroscience, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2HQ, UK,

Tóm tắt

AbstractDramatic global increases in future numbers of people with dementia have been predicted. No multicentre population-based study powered to detect changes over time has reported dementia incidence. MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (CFAS) undertook baseline interviews in populations aged 65+ years in England and Wales (1989–1994). Three areas (CFAS I) were selected for new sampling two decades later (2008–2011) with same geographical boundaries, sampling and approach methods (CFAS II). At 2 years CFAS I interviewed 5,156 (76% response) with 5,288 interviewed in CFAS II (74% response). Here we report a 20% drop in incidence (95% CI: 0–40%), driven by a reduction in men across all ages above 65. In the UK we estimate 209,600 new dementia cases per year. This study was uniquely designed to test for differences across geography and time. A reduction of age-specific incidence means that the numbers of people estimated to develop dementia in any year has remained relatively stable.

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