Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) - Tập 372 Số 6538 - 2021
Nicholas G. Davies1, Sam Abbott1, Rosanna C. Barnard1, Christopher I Jarvis1, Adam J. Kucharski1, James D. Munday1, Carl A. B. Pearson1, Timothy Russell1, Damien C. Tully1, Alex Washburne2, Tom Wenseleers3, Amy Gimma1, William Waites1, Kerry LM Wong1, Kevin van Zandvoort1, Justin D. Silverman4, Karla Diaz‐Ordaz5, Ruth H. Keogh5, Rosalind M. Eggo1, Sebastian Funk1, Mark Jit1, Katherine E. Atkins6,1, W. John Edmunds1
1Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
2Selva Analytics LLC, Bozeman, MT, USA.
3Lab of Socioecology and Social Evolution, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
4College of Information Science and Technology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
5Centre for Statistical Methodology and Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
6Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

Tóm tắt

UK variant transmissionSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the capacity to generate variants with major genomic changes. The UK variant B.1.1.7 (also known as VOC 202012/01) has many mutations that alter virus attachment and entry into human cells. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, Davieset al.characterized the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant in the United Kingdom. The authors found that the variant is 43 to 90% more transmissible than the predecessor lineage but saw no clear evidence for a change in disease severity, although enhanced transmission will lead to higher incidence and more hospital admissions. Large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur after the easing of control measures, and it may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to control the epidemic.Science, this issue p.eabg3055

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American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Tập 372 Số 6538

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