A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties

Water Resources Research - Tập 47 Số 12 - 2011
Michael L. Roderick1, Graham D. Farquhar2
1Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
2Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Tóm tắt

We use the Budyko framework to calculate catchment‐scale evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) as a function of two climatic factors, precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (Eo = 0.75 times the pan evaporation rate), and a third parameter that encodes the catchment properties (n) and modifies how P is partitioned between E and Q. This simple theory accurately predicted the long‐term evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) for the Murray‐Darling Basin (MDB) in southeast Australia. We extend the theory by developing a simple and novel analytical expression for the effects on E and Q of small perturbations in P, Eo, and n. The theory predicts that a 10% change in P, with all else constant, would result in a 26% change in Q in the MDB. Future climate scenarios (2070–2099) derived using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model output highlight the diversity of projections for P (±30%) with a correspondingly large range in projections for Q (±80%) in the MDB. We conclude with a qualitative description about the impact of changes in catchment properties on water availability and focus on the interaction between vegetation change, increasing atmospheric [CO2], and fire frequency. We conclude that the modern version of the Budyko framework is a useful tool for making simple and transparent estimates of changes in water availability.

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Water Resources Research

Tập 47 Số 12

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