The challenge of adapting centralised electricity systems: peak demand and maladaptation in South East Queensland, Australia

ABS (2011) Regional population growth, Australia, 2009–2010. Canberra, Australia AEMC (2010) Future possible retail electricity price movements: 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2013, Final report. Sydney, NSW AEMO (2012) National electricity forecasting report for the national electricity market (NEM). Australian energy market operator APVA (2011) Modelling of PV and electricity prices in the Australian residential sector, 2011. Australian PV association Barnett J, O’Neill S (2010) Maladaptation. Global Environ Change 20(2):211–213. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.11.004 Berry M (1999) Unravelling the “Australian housing solution”: the post-war years. Hous Theory Soc 16(3):106–123. doi:10.1080/14036099950149974 Blokhuis E, Brouwers B, van der Putten E, Schaefer W (2011) Peak loads and network investments in sustainable energy transitions. Energy Policy 39(10):6220 Booth RR (2003) Warring tribes: the story of power development in Australia, 2nd edn. Bardak Group, West Perth Bouffard F, Kirschen DS (2008) Centralised and distributed electricity systems. Energy Policy 36(12):4504–4508. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.060 Brown N, Rappert B, Webster A (eds) (2000) Contested futures: a sociology of prospective techno-science. Ashgate Publishing Limited, Aldershot Bruce A, Watt ME, Passey R (2009) Who buys PV systems? A survey of NSW residential PV rebate recipients. Paper presented at the Solar09, the 47th ANZSES annual conference, Townsville, Queensland, Australia Bulkeley H, Broto CB, Hodson M, Marvin S (eds) (2010) Cities and low carbon transitions. Routledge, London Burton I (1997) Vulnerability and adaptive response in the context of climate and climate change. Clim Change 36(1–2):185–196. doi:10.1023/a:1005334926618 CEC (2011) Clean energy Australia report 2011. Clean Energy Council Centre Hadley (2011) Climate: observations, projections and impacts—Australia. The Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter Clune S, Morrissey J, Moore T (2012) Size matters: house size and thermal efficiency as policy strategies to reduce net emissions of new developments. Energy Policy (0). doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.072 CSIRO (2007) Climate change in Australia—technical report 2007. CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government, Canberra Dhakal S (2009) Urban energy use and carbon emissions from cities in China and policy implications. Energy Policy 37(11):4208–4219 Dosi G (1982) Technological paradigms and technological trajectories: a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change. Res Policy 11(3):147–162. doi:10.1016/0048-7333(82)90016-6 Dunstan C, Boronyak L, Langham L, Ison N, Usher J, Cooper C, White S (2011) Think small: the Australian decentralised energy roadmap: Issue 1, December 2011. CSIRO Intelligent Grid Research Program. Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney EES (2006) Status of air conditioners in Australia—Updated with 2005 data. ACT, Canberra Elzen B, Wieczorek A (2005) Transitions towards sustainability through system innovation. Technol Forecast Soc Change 72(6):651–661. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.04.002 Evans MDR, Kelley J (2008) Trends in women’s labor force participation in Australia: 1984–2002. Soc Sci Res 37(1):287–310. doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2007.01.009 Farbotko C, Waitt G (2011) Residential air-conditioning and climate change: voices of the vulnerable. Health Promot J Aust 22:S13–S16 Faruqui A, Sergici S (2010) Household response to dynamic pricing of electricity: a survey of 15 experiments. J Regul Econ 38(2):193–225. doi:10.1007/s11149-010-9127-y Garnaut R (2011) Garnaut climate change review—update paper eight: transforming the electricity sector. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra Gascoigne T (2008) Climate change: “The” issue in the Australian national election 2007? Sci Commun 29(4):522–531. doi:10.1177/1075547008316306 Geels FW (2002) Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study. Res Policy 31(8–9):1257–1274. doi:10.1016/s0048-7333(02)00062-8 Geels FW (2004) From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Res Policy 33(6–7):897–920. doi:10.1016/j.respol.2004.01.015 Geels FW, Schot J (2007) Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Res Policy 36(3):399–417 Giannakopoulos C, Kostopoulou E, Varotsos K, Tziotziou K, Plitharas A (2011) An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Greece in the near future. Reg Environ Change 11(4):829–843. doi:10.1007/s10113-011-0219-8 Hagan S (2012) Metabolic suburbs or the virtue of low densities. Arch Res Q 16(1):9–13. doi:10.1017/S1359135512000243 Harvey D (1989) From managerialism to entrepreneurialism: the transformation in urban governance in late capitalism. Geogr Ann Ser B 71(1):3–17. doi:10.2307/490503 Hensley R, Newman J, Rogers M (2012) Battery technology charges ahead. McKinsey Quarterly July Herring H, Roy R (2007) Technological innovation, energy efficient design and the rebound effect. Technovation 27(4):194–203 Higgins A, Paevere P, Gardner J, Quezada G (2012) Combining choice modelling and multi-criteria analysis for technology diffusion: an application to the uptake of electric vehicles. Technol Forecast Soc Change 79:1399–1412 Horne R, Hayles C (2008) Towards global benchmarking for sustainable homes: an international comparison of the energy performance of housing. J Hous Built Environ 23(2):119–130. doi:10.1007/s10901-008-9105-1 Hughes TP (1987) The evolution of large technological systems. In: Bijker WE, Hughes TP, Pinch T (eds) The social construction of technological systems: new directions in the sociology and history of technology. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 51–82 Hui SCM (2001) Low energy building design in high density urban cities. Renew Energy 24(3–4):627–640. doi:10.1016/s0960-1481(01)00049-0 Kemp R, Schot J, Hoogma R (1998) Regime shifts to sustainability through processes of niche formation: the approach of strategic niche management. Technol Anal Strateg Manag 10(2):175–195 Keys N, Bussey M, Thomsen DC, Lynam T, Smith TF (2013) Building adaptive capacity in South East Queensland, Australia. Reg Environ Change. doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0394-2 Kihm S (2009) When revenue decoupling will work … and when it won’t. Electr J 22(8):19–28. doi:10.1016/j.tej.2009.08.002 Kim E, Barles S (2012) The energy consumption of Paris and its supply areas from the eighteenth century to the present. Reg Environ Change 12(2):295–310. doi:10.1007/s10113-011-0275-0 Madlener R, Sunak Y (2011) Impacts of urbanization on urban structures and energy demand: what can we learn for urban energy planning and urbanization management? Sustain Cities Soc 1(1):45–53. doi:10.1016/j.scs.2010.08.006 Martinez-Zarzoso I, Maruotti A (2011) The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: evidence from developing countries. Ecol Econ 70(7):1344–1353 McCarty JW (1970) Australian capital cities in the 19th century. Aust Econ Hist Rev 10(2):107 Miller NL, Hayhoe K, Jin J, Auffhammer M (2008) Climate, extreme heat, and electricity demand in California. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47(6):1834–1844. doi:10.1175/2007jamc1480.1 Miller W, Buys L, Bell J (2012) Performance evaluation of eight contemporary passive solar homes in subtropical Australia. Build Environ 56(2):57–68 Moran A (2008) The emergence of Australia’s electricity market. Int J Global Energy Issues 29(1–2):88–108. doi:10.1504/ijgei.2008.016343 Narula CK, Martinez R, Onar O, Starke MR, Andrews G (2011) Economic analysis of deploying used batteries in power systems. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Nelson T, Simshauser P, Nelson J (2012) Queensland solar feed-in tariffs and the merit-order effect: economic benefit, or regressive taxation and wealth transfers? AGL Appl Econ Policy Res, working paper no 30:1–22 Newsham G (2011) A comparison of four methods to evaluate the effect of a utility residential air-conditioner load control program on peak electricity use. Energy Policy 39(10):6376 Newsham GR, Bowker BG (2010) The effect of utility time-varying pricing and load control strategies on residential summer peak electricity use: a review. Energy Policy 38(7):3289–3296. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.01.027 QCA (2013) Draft determination—regulated retail electricity prices 2013–14. Queensland Competition Authority, Brisbane Queensland Government (2008) South East Queensland: state of the region. Technical report. Queensland Government, Brisbane Reddy TA (1991) Shaving residential air-conditioner electricity peaks by intelligent use of the building thermal mass. Energy (Oxford) 16(7):1001 Rip A, Kemp R (1998) Technological change. human choice and climate change, Volume 2: resources and technology, Battelle Press, 2:327–327 Romero-Lankao P, Dodman D (2011) Cities in transition: transforming urban centers from hotbeds of GHG emissions and vulnerability to seedbeds of sustainability and resilience: introduction and Editorial overview. Current Opin Environ Sustain 3(3):113–120. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2011.02.002 Schipper L (1987) Residential electricity consumption in industrialized countries: changes since 1973. Energy (Oxford) 12(12):1197 Schnore LF (1957) The growth of metropolitan suburbs. Am Soc Rev 22(2):165 Shahid S (2012) Vulnerability of the power sector of Bangladesh to climate change and extreme weather events. Reg Environ Change 12(3):595–606. doi:10.1007/s10113-011-0276-z Sharma D (2003) The multidimensionality of electricity reform-an Australian perspective. Energy Policy 31(11):1093 Sharma D, Bartels R (1997) Distributed electricity generation in competitive energy markets: A case study in Australia. Energy J 19 (SPEC. ISS.):17–39 Shove E (2003) Users, technologies and expectations of comfort, cleanliness and convenience. Innovation 16(2):193–206 Simmers JM (2004) The coming of the light to suburban Brisbane. Aust J Electr Electron Eng 1(2):127–141 Simshauser P, Nelson T, Doan T (2011a) The boomerang paradox, part I: how a nation’s wealth is creating fuel poverty. Electr J 24(1):72–91. doi:10.1016/j.tej.2010.12.001 Simshauser P, Nelson T, Doan T (2011b) The boomerang paradox, part II: policy prescriptions for reducing fuel poverty in Australia. Electr J 24(2):63–75. doi:10.1016/j.tej.2011.01.017 SKM (2011) Preliminary assessment of stand alone power systems as an alternative to grid connections at the fringe of the grid. Alternative Technology Association, Melbourne Smit B, Burton I, Klein RJT, Wandel J (2000) An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability. Clim Change 45(1):223 Smith A, Stirling A, Berkhout F (2005) The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions. Res Policy 34(10):1491–1510. doi:10.1016/j.respol.2005.07.005 Smith A, Voß J-P, Grin J (2010) Innovation studies and sustainability transitions: the allure of the multi-level perspective and its challenges. Res Policy 39(4):435–448 Spearritt P (2009) The 200 km city: Brisbane, the gold coast, and sunshine coast. Aust Econ Hist Rev 49(1):87–106 Steinberger JK, van Niel J, Bourg D (2009) Profiting from negawatts: reducing absolute consumption and emissions through a performance-based energy economy. Energy Policy 37(1):361–370 Steinfeld J, Bruce A, Watt M (2011) Peak load characteristics of Sydney office buildings and policy recommendations for peak load reduction. Energy Build 43(9):2179–2187 Swilling M (2011) Reconceptualising urbanism, ecology and networked infrastructures. Soc Dyn-J Cent Afr Stud Univ Cape Town 37(1):78–95 Szatow A, Quezada G, Lilley B (2012) New light on an old problem: reflections on barriers and enablers of distributed energy. Energy Policy 43:1–5. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.07.057 Tainter JA, Little A, Allen TF, Hoekstra TW (2003) Resource transitions and energy gain: contexts of organization. Conserv Ecol 7(3):4. http://www.consecol.org/vol7/iss3/art4 Trainer T (2011) We can’t have our cake and eat it too: why the energy and climate problems cannot be solved in consumer-capitalist society. Energy, Sustainability and the Environment: Technology, Incentives, Behaviour. Butterworth-Heinemann, Amsterdam van der Vleuten E, Raven R (2006) Lock-in and change: distributed generation in Denmark in a long-term perspective. Energy Policy 34(18):3739–3748. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.08.016 Verbong G, Geels F (2007) The ongoing energy transition: lessons from a socio-technical, multi-level analysis of the Dutch electricity system (1960–2004). Energy Policy 35(2):1025–1037. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006.02.010 Verbong GPJ, Geels FW (2010) Exploring sustainability transitions in the electricity sector with socio-technical pathways. Technol Forecast Soc Change 77(8):1214–1221. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.008 Vine E (2012) Adaptation of California’s electricity sector to climate change. Clim Change 111(1):75–99. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0242-2 Wadley D (1981) Cost, price, and revenue differentials in electricity supply: Queensland and Australia. Aust Geogr Stud 19(1):25–46 Wang C-h, Grozev G, Seo S (2012) Decomposition and statistical analysis for regional electricity demand forecasting. Energy 41(1):313–325. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.03.011 Willbanks TJ, Lankao PR, Bao M, Berkhout F, Cairncross S, Ceron JP, Kapshe M, Muir-Wood R, Zapata-Marti R (2007) Industry, settlement and society. Climate change 2007: Impacts adaptation and vulnerability. contribution of working group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge