Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate

Global Change Biology - Tập 19 Số 2 - Trang 548-562 - 2013
Han‐Yong Kim1, Jonghan Ko1, Suchul Kang2, John Tenhunen3
1Department of Applied Plant Science, Chonnam National University, 77 Yongbong-ro, Buk-gu, Gwangju, 500-757 Korea
2Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center, 1463 U-dong Haeundae-gu, Busan, 612-020 Korea
3Department of Plant Ecology, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, 95440 Germany

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES‐Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (−22.1% and −35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES‐Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system.

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Global Change Biology

Tập 19 Số 2

548-562

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