Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) - Tập 347 Số 6223 - 2015
Will Steffen1,2, Katherine Richardson3, Johan Rockström2, Sarah Cornell2, Ingo Fetzer2, Elena M. Bennett4, Reinette Biggs5,2, Stephen R. Carpenter6, W. de Vries7, Cynthia A. de Wit8, Carl Folke9,2, Dieter Gerten10, Jens Heinke11,12,10, Georgina M. Mace13, Linn Persson14, V. Ramanathan15,16, Belinda Reyers17,2, Sverker Sörlin18
1Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
2Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
3Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Natural History Museum of Denmark, Universitetsparken 15, Building 3, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
4Department of Natural Resource Sciences and McGill School of Environment, McGill University, 21, 111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC H9X 3V9, Canada.
5Centre for Studies in Complexity, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Stellenbosch 7602, South Africa.
6Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, 680 North Park Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA
7Environmental Systems Analysis group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
8Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
9Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-10405 Stockholm, Sweden
10Research Domain Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegraphenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
11CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization), St. Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia.
12International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya
13Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research (CBER), Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
14Stockholm Environment Institute, Linnégatan 87D, SE-10451 Stockholm, Sweden.
15Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, 8622 Kennel Way, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA.
16TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute) University, 10 Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi, Delhi 110070, India.
17Natural Resources and the Environment, CSIR, P.O. Box 320, Stellenbosch 7599, South Africa
18Division of History of Science, Technology and Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden.

Tóm tắt

Crossing the boundaries in global sustainability The planetary boundary (PB) concept, introduced in 2009, aimed to define the environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate. This approach has proved influential in global sustainability policy development. Steffen et al. provide an updated and extended analysis of the PB framework. Of the original nine proposed boundaries, they identify three (including climate change) that might push the Earth system into a new state if crossed and that also have a pervasive influence on the remaining boundaries. They also develop the PB framework so that it can be applied usefully in a regional context. Science , this issue 10.1126/science.1259855

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.5751/ES-03180-140232

10.1038/461472a

10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014009

10.1126/science.1227620

10.1016/j.cosust.2013.07.004

10.1016/j.cosust.2013.11.001

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.009

V. Galaz Global Environmental Governance Technology and Politics: The Anthropocene Gap . (Edward Elgar Cheltenham UK 2014).

UN GSP (UN High-Level Panel on Global Sustainability) Resilient People Resilient Planet: A Future Worth Choosing (Report for the 2012 Rio+20 Earth Summit United Nations New York 2012).

WBCSD (World Business Council on Sustainable Development) Action 2020 Overview (WBCSD Geneva Switzerland http://action2020.org accessed 18 June 2014).

R. Costanza L. Graumlich W. Steffen Eds. Integrated History and Future of People on Earth (MIT Press Cambridge MA USA 2006).

S. Sörlin P. Warde in Nature’s End: History and the Environment S. Sörlin P. Warde Eds. (Palgrave MacMillan London 2009) pp. 1–19.

10.2307/1240156

10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00041-4

10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[614:TAAHNO]2.0.CO;2

W. Steffen et al . Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure (The IGBP Book Series Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York 2004).

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of Working Groups I and II of the IPCC. C.B. Field et al . Eds. (Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK (2012). 10.1017/CBO9781139177245

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers L. Alexander et al . Eds. (IPCC Secretariat Geneva Switzerland 2013). 10.1017/CBO9781107415324

10.1038/415023a

K. Richardson W. Steffen D. Liverman Climate Change: Global Risks Challenges and Decisions (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge UK 2011).

10.1073/pnas.0705414105

10.1038/nature08227

10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00877.x

10.1038/ngeo439

10.1126/science.1225244

10.1038/nature11655

10.1073/pnas.0811729106

10.1021/es501893m

10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245

10.5751/ES-03610-150420

10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.019

10.1016/j.tree.2013.06.001

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) NOAA-ESRL Annual CO 2 Data accessed at: http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/annual-co2.html (2014).

10.1029/2012GL053361

10.1126/science.1228102

10.1086/511334

10.1016/j.cub.2014.01.049

10.1038/nature09678

10.1111/jvs.12013

10.1038/nature03289

10.1126/science.1222102

10.1038/nature11118

BAS (British Antarctic Survey) “Antarctic ozone” www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/jds/ozone/index.html#data J. Shanklin British Antarctic Survey (2013).

Royal Society Ocean Acidification Due to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Policy Document 12/05 (The Royal Society London 2005).

10.1196/annals.1439.013

10.1029/2002GB001894

10.1890/110046

10.1890/0012-9658(2007)88[119:NLISED]2.0.CO;2

10.1086/660831

10.1038/ngeo1765

10.1073/pnas.1010808108

10.1073/pnas.1012878108

10.1016/j.cosust.2013.04.007

10.1093/aob/mcn188

10.1007/s00382-004-0430-0

10.1890/090015

EPI (Earth Policy Institute) “Forest cover” www.earthpolicy.org/indicators/C56/forests_2012_ (2014).

10.1098/rstb.1997.0072

10.1098/rstb.2003.1383

10.2307/1313099

10.1111/j.1365-2427.2009.02272.x

10.5194/hess-18-5041-2014

WHO (World Health Organization) Burden of Disease from the Joint Effects of Household and Ambient Air Pollution for 2012 (www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/FINAL_HAP_AAP_BoD24March2014.pdf accessed 23 June 2014; http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/en)

O. Boucher et al . in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. IPCC AR5 WGI report T. Stocker et al . Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge UK 2013) chap. 7 pp. 571–657.

10.5194/acp-14-3657-2014

10.1073/pnas.0500656102

10.1016/j.marpolbul.2011.09.025

EEA (European Environment Agency) Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs): The Significance of Gene Flow Through Pollen Transfer (Environmental Issue Report 28 European Environment Agency Copenhagen Denmark 2002).

10.1016/j.envpol.2013.10.036

10.1289/ehp.119-a120

M. Rees Our Final Century. Will Civilisation Survive the Twenty-first Century? (Arrow Books London 2003).

10.1021/es402501c

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.10.046

UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) GCO Global Chemicals Outlook: Towards Sound Management of Chemicals (United Nations Environment Programme Nairobi Kenya 2013).

10.1021/es3002713

10.5094/APR.2012.044

10.1038/469018a

10.1186/1476-069X-12-31

EEA (European Environment Agency) Late Lessons from Early Warnings: The Precautionary Principle 1896-2000 (Environmental Issue Report 22/2001 Copenhagen Denmark 2001).

10.1289/ehp.8134

T. Lenton A. Watson A. Revolutions That Made the Earth (Oxford Univ. Press Oxford UK 2011).

10.1146/annurev-environ-051211-123836

10.1007/s10980-012-9725-4

10.1038/495305a

R. Costanza Ed. Ecological Economics: The Science and Management of Sustainability (Columbia Univ. Press New York 1991).

C. Folke in Linking the Natural Environment and the Economy: Essays from the Eco-Eco Group C. Folke T. Kåberger Eds. (Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht Netherlands 1991) pp. 77–94.

L. Robin S. Sörlin P. Warde Eds. The Future of Nature: Documents of Global Change (Yale Univ. Press New Haven CT 2013).

U. Heise Sense of Place and Sense of Planet: The Environmental Imagination of the Global (Oxford Univ. Press Oxford 2008).

M. Scheffer Critical Transitions in Nature and Society (Princeton Univ. Press Princeton NJ 2009).

10.1177/0306312709341598

10.1016/j.envsci.2012.11.004

10.1038/nclimate2339

10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044048

S. E. Cornell I. C. Prentice J. I. House C. J. Downy Understanding the Earth System. Global Change Science for Application (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 2012).

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.012

10.4319/lo.1977.22.2.0361

10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0227:HIOEPA]2.0.CO;2

Bouwman A. F., G van Drecht, K.W. van der Hoek, Global and regional surface nitrogen balances in intensive agricultural production systems for the period 1970-2030. Pedosphere 15, 137 (2005).

10.1098/rstb.2013.0164

10.1038/ncomms4858

10.1126/science.1155121

10.1029/2003GL018600

10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00366.1

10.1126/science.1210657

10.1890/1540-9295(2007)5[25:ARFDAL]2.0.CO;2

10.1126/science.1146961

10.1029/2007GL030612

10.1175/2009JCLI2757.1

10.1126/science.1200807

O. Arino et al. Global Land Cover Map for 2009 (GlobCover 2009). (European Space Agency & Université Catholique de Louvain 2012); doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.787668

10.1046/j.1365-2427.1997.00153.x

10.1016/S1463-4988(98)00018-9

10.1177/0309133309342645

P. Knights Environmental flows: lessons from an Australian experience (Proc. Int. Conf.: Dialog on Water Food and Environment. Hanoi Vietnam 2002 http://www.bvsde.paho.org/bvsacd/dialogo/knights.pdf accessed 20 June 2014).

V. Smakhtin C. Revenga P. Döll P. Taking into account environmental water requirements in global-scale water resources assessments (Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management Agriculture Research Report 2 International Water Management Institute Colombo Sri Lanka 2004).

L. A. Shiklomanov “World water resources and water use: Present assessment and outlook for 2025” in World Water Scenarios Analyses . R.J. Rijsberman (ed.) (Earthscan Publications London 2000).

10.1126/science.289.5477.284

10.1029/2008GL035258

10.1577/1548-8446(1976)001<0006:IFRFFW>2.0.CO;2

S. Tessmann “Environmental assessment” Technical Appendix E in: Environmental use sector reconnaissance elements of the Western Dakotas region of South Dakota study (Water Resources Institute South Dakota State University Brookings South Dakota USA 1980).

10.1080/02508060408691785

10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.02.010

10.1126/science.1107887

10.1038/nature09440

10.1029/2007WR006331

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.12.011

B. Rudolf A. Becker U. Schneider A. Meyer-Christoffer M. Ziese GPCC Status Report December 2010: New gridded global data set by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). (DWD/GPCC Technical Report 2010; http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/generator/DWDWWW/Content/Oeffentlichkeit/KU/KU4/KU42/en/Reports__Publications/GPCC__status__report__2010 templateId=raw property=publicationFile.pdf/GPCC_status_report_2010.pdf.)

10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013

10.1002/joc.3711

10.1029/2009WR008929

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.018

10.1038/20859

S. Oppenheimer Out of Eden: The Peopling of the World (Constable London 2004).

10.1038/35051500

10.1007/s10021-009-9229-5

10.1126/science.1152509

10.1175/2009EI288.1

10.1029/1999GB900046

10.1038/ngeo156

10.1038/nature11018

P. Leadley et al . Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st Century Change in Biodiversity and Associated Ecosystem Services. (Technical Report for the Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 CBD Technical Series No. 50. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity Montreal Canada. http://www.cbd.int/ts/ 2011).

10.1139/a93-002

10.1126/science.1205106

D. Gee et al . Late Lessons from Early Warnings: Science Precaution Innovation (European Environment Agency Copenhagen 2013).

10.1098/rstb.2005.1783

10.1029/2009GB003587

10.4319/lo.2006.51.1_part_2.0351

10.1029/2003JD004462

J. Rockström et al . Water Resilience for Human Prosperity (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge UK 2014).

J. Rockström L. Gordon C. Folke M. Falkenmark M. Engwall Linkages among water vapor flows food production and terrestrial ecosystem services. Cons. Ecol. 3 5 (1999). http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol3/iss2/art5

10.1080/07900620701723729

10.1029/2005GL022771

10.1038/nature06019

10.1175/BAMS-89-3-369

10.1073/pnas.0901414106

10.5194/esd-4-287-2013

10.1038/nature13014

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Tập 347 Số 6223

Thông tin tác giả