Springer Science and Business Media LLC

A new strategy for inversion of high-frequency wave radiation condition on the fault plan is exhibited. One-dimensional source model of large earthquake was divided into subfaults, each subfault contains a series of subsources to express high-frequency wave radiation. Envelope of large earthquakes can be expressed as a root-mean-squared with combination of envelope attenuation relationship from all subsources. The envelope attenuation relationship is considered as the empirical Green’s function. Distribution of subsources is estimated by envelope inversion. According to this method, the high-frequency (> 1 Hz) wave radiation areas of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake are generally inverted by the differential evolution using acceleration data from 27 near-field stations, while acceleration waveforms of the Lushan earthquake from 43 near-field stations were utilized to create attenuation envelope. High-frequency waves radiated in: (1) surface rupture areas, including Yingxiu and Beichuan areas; (2) close to the boundaries of asperities near Yingxiu, Yuejiashan, Beichuan and Nanba areas; (3) within 30 km length near the fault northeastern tip; (4) around Qingchuan area.

Until now, flood-risk perception in the Netherlands has been solely studied as it relates to adults. This exploratory study focused on 15-year-old students who have taken geography courses for 3 years. Since geography education focuses on the formation of knowledge and understanding with respect to flooding in the Netherlands, we were interested in finding out to what extent knowledge and understanding of flooding leads to a rational judgment of flood risk that influences flood-risk perception among 15-year-old students. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 483 15-year-old students from different flood-prone areas in the Netherlands. A reference group of 134 students from higher-elevation areas also participated. In addition to risk perception and risk-related factors, the survey also consisted of a knowledge test about flood hazards and water management with respect to the Netherlands in general and with regard to the surroundings of the students’ schools. In general, students showed low personal flood-risk perceptions and much stronger general flood-risk perceptions. Students’ level of knowledge of floods and flood-related aspects was low. Predictors of personal risk perception included fear, knowledge of flooding in the surroundings of the school and the awareness of environmental cues. Further study is needed of the formation of knowledge in relation to engendering flood-risk awareness among students.

Determination of the priorities for improvement of vulnerable urban fabrics based on a comprehensive assessment is among the main desires of local governments in earthquake-prone countries like Iran. However, in most countries, the comprehensive and absolute estimation of seismic risk is not possible due to shortages of the required data. In this paper, a new method is proposed for estimation of the risk through combination of hazard, vulnerability and response capacity indicators. Also, new evaluation methods based on relative scheme are presented for simple quantification of indicators in urban areas suffering from limited or insufficient database. For this purpose, important vulnerability parameters at urban areas are classified into physical, human life and socioeconomic groups. New hazard factors are also defined to evaluate the risk through combination of each vulnerability indicator and its directly related hazard factor. In addition, the capacity of response activities is accounted for in the model using planning, resource, accessibility and evacuation capacity indicators. The post-earthquake reduction of response capacity is also measured by means of reduction factors. Then, total relative seismic risk index is defined and calculated at each urban division (or zone) by weighted combination of the mentioned risk and response capacity indicators. This index represents the state of the risk in each zone in comparison with the others. The proposed method is applied to assess the earthquake risk at 22 municipal districts of Tehran. The results show that physical, human life and overall risk indices in district 15 of the city are considerably greater than the others. Meanwhile, in socioeconomic aspects, district 6 has the highest risk. Also, the analysis of the results demonstrates the major contribution of the response capacity term to determine the mitigation priorities. Finally, the results are compared with JICA (2000), using the same data, to show the efficiency of the proposed model. It is shown that the introduced method can significantly improve the results of the risk estimation and mitigation priorities.

Heat waves and extreme weather events caused by climate change increase people’s need for predictable, healthy, and appropriate thermal thresholds in urban areas. The Mediterranean region, where alarming effects are expected, poses a danger to many species and threatens the quality of human life. In the research, predictions were made according to SSP 245 and SSP 585 scenarios from CNRM-CM6-1 climate models using the data of meteorological stations for 2020 in the Eastern Mediterranean region via CMIP6 and WorldClim database. The study aims to predict the change in the bioclimatic comfort situation of the region at 20-year intervals until 2100, depending on the periods. The highest annual temperatures seen in the area are 18–20 °C. In the 2100 estimations, areas with a value of 22–24 °C according to SSP 245 and 24–26 °C according to SSP 585 are modeled spatially. While the largest area in the basin today is the area with a humidity range of 62–64%, according to SSP 245, in 2100 predictions, the largest area will be 23% with a humidity level of 56–58%. While the wind speed in the area is currently 0.5–1 m/s, it decreases to 0–0.5 m/s in 36% of the area, according to SSP 585. According to the ETv index, quite cool areas are effective on a 36% area surface. However, in the 2100, compared to the SSP 245, the most comprehensive range is the slightly cool areas with 40%. According to SSP 585, mild areas will have a share of 42%. Warm areas, the most critical class of the index, will begin to form. According to DI, the field has a 58% share in the cold class. According to SSP 585, hot areas have a rate of 26%, and comfortable areas have a rate of 52%. Findings of thermal disturbance variation can help develop solutions to conditions in the context of the climatic values of the region.

The correct evaluation of failure hazard in water and gas supply pipelines has been a great problem in areas which are subject to considerable surface movements. The complexity of elements from which pipeline network consists allows only for an approximated evaluation of their resistance. It is practically impossible to precisely determine the places of failures, and therefore attempts were made in the paper to construe a fuzzy system of evaluation of water supply network hazard which would be integrated with the geographic information system (GIS). The uncertainty factor was to be accounted for in the system through the use of linguistic variables, e.g., resistance of water pipeline and hazard of the terrain in the form of fuzzy sets. The reasoning was based on a Mamdani-type fuzzy model. The inferences of variables relating to the resistance of the pipeline supply network and hazards generated by continuous surface strains could be integrated in the presented fuzzy model. The ultimately scaled model was integrated with the geographic information system. The model was presented on the example of hazard evaluation of water supply network located in a mining area.