Oil Price UncertaintyJournal of Money, Credit and Banking - Tập 42 Số 6 - Trang 1137-1159 - 2010
John P. Elder, Apostolos Serletis
The theories of investment under uncertainty and real options predict that
uncertainty about, for example, oil prices will tend to depress current
investment. We reinvestigate the relationship between the price of oil and
investment, focusing on the role of uncertainty about oil prices. We find that
volatility in oil prices has had a negative and statistically significant effect
on several measure... hiện toàn bộ
The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on Global Real Economic ActivityJournal of Money, Credit and Banking - Tập 46 Số 6 - Trang 1113-1135 - 2014
Soojin Jo
This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on global real
economic activity using a quarterly vector autoregressive model with stochastic
volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary
separately from changes in the level of oil prices, and allows one to
incorporate an extraneous indicator of oil price uncertainty such as realized
volatility that gr... hiện toàn bộ
When Credit Bites BackJournal of Money, Credit and Banking - Tập 45 Số s2 - Trang 3-28 - 2013
Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, Alan M. Taylor
Using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key
facts of the modern business cycle: relative to typical recessions, financial
crisis recessions are costlier, and more credit‐intensive expansions tend to be
followed by deeper recessions (in financial crises or otherwise) and slower
recoveries. We use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of
macro‐economi... hiện toàn bộ