Environmental Conservation

Predicting the distribution of endangered species from habitat data is frequently perceived to be a useful technique. Models that predict the presence or absence of a species are normally judged by the number of prediction errors. These may be of two types: false positives and false negatives. Many of the prediction errors can be traced to ecological processes such as unsaturated habitat and species interactions. Consequently, if prediction errors are not placed in an ecological context the results of the model may be misleading. The simplest, and most widely used, measure of prediction accuracy is the number of correctly classified cases. There are other measures of prediction success that may be more appropriate. Strategies for assessing the causes and costs of these errors are discussed. A range of techniques for measuring error in presence/absence models, including some that are seldom used by ecologists (e.g. ROC plots and cost matrices), are described. A new approach to estimating prediction error, which is based on the spatial characteristics of the errors, is proposed. Thirteen recommendations are made to enable the objective selection of an error assessment technique for ecological presence/absence models.

Estuaries exhibit a wide array of human impacts that can compromise their ecological integrity, because of rapid population growth and uncontrolled development in many coastal regions worldwide. Long-term environmental problems plaguing estuaries require remedial actions to improve the viability and health of these valuable coastal systems. Detailed examination of the effects of pollution inputs, the loss and alteration of estuarine habitat, and the role of other anthropogenic stress indicates that water quality in estuaries, particularly urbanized systems, is often compromised by the overloading of nutrients and organic matter, the influx of pathogens, and the accumulation of chemical contaminants. In addition, the destruction of fringing wetlands and the loss and alteration of estuarine habitats usually degrade biotic communities. Estuaries are characterized by high population densities of microbes, plankton, benthic flora and fauna, and nekton; however, these organisms tend to be highly vulnerable to human activities in coastal watersheds and adjoining embayments. Trends suggest that by 2025 estuaries will be most significantly impacted by habitat loss and alteration associated with a burgeoning coastal population, which is expected to approach six billion people. Habitat destruction has far reaching ecological consequences, modifying the structure, function, and controls of estuarine ecosystems and contributing to the decline of biodiversity. Other anticipated high priority problems are excessive nutrient and sewage inputs to estuaries, principally from land-based sources. These inputs will lead to the greater incidence of eutrophication as well as hypoxia and anoxia. During the next 25 years, overfishing is expected to become a more pervasive and significant anthropogenic factor, also capable of mediating global-scale change to estuaries. Chemical contaminants, notably synthetic organic compounds, will remain a serious problem, especially in heavily industrialized areas. Freshwater diversions appear to be an emerging global problem as the expanding coastal population places greater demands on limited freshwater supplies for agricultural, domestic, and industrial needs. Altered freshwater flows could significantly affect nutrient loads, biotic community structure, and the trophodynamics of estuarine systems. Ecological impacts that will be less threatening, but still damaging, are those caused by introduced species, sea level rise, coastal subsidence, and debris/litter. Although all of these disturbances can alter habitats and contribute to shifts in the composition of estuarine biotic communities, the overall effect will be partial changes to these ecosystem components. Several strategies may mitigate future impacts.

Running waters are perhaps the most impacted ecosystem on the planet as they have been the focus for human settlement and are heavily exploited for water supplies, irrigation, electricity generation, and waste disposal. Lotic systems also have an intimate contact with their catchments and so land-use alterations affect them directly. Here long-term trends in the factors that currently impact running waters are reviewed with the aim of predicting what the main threats to rivers will be in the year 2025. The main ultimate factors forcing change in running waters (ecosystem destruction, physical habitat and water chemistry alteration, and the direct addition or removal of species) stem from proximate influences from urbanization, industry, land-use change and water-course alterations. Any one river is likely to be subjected to several types of impact, and the management of impacts on lotic systems is complicated by numerous links between different forms of anthropogenic effect. Long-term trends for different impacts vary. Concentrations of chemical pollutants such as toxins and nutrients have increased in rivers in developed countries over the past century, with recent reductions for some pollutants (e.g. metals, organic toxicants, acidification), and continued increases in others (e.g. nutrients); there are no long-term chemical data for developing countries. Dam construction increased rapidly during the twentieth century, peaking in the 1970s, and the number of reservoirs has stabilized since this time, whereas the transfer of exotic species between lotic systems continues to increase. Hence, there have been some success stories in the attempts to reduce the impacts from anthropogenic impacts in developed nations. Improvements in the pH status of running waters should continue with lower sulphurous emissions, although emissions of nitrous oxides are set to continue under current legislation and will continue to contribute to acidification and nutrient loadings. Climate change also will impact running waters through alterations in hydrology and thermal regimes, although precise predictions are problematic; effects are likely to vary between regions and to operate alongside rather than override those from other impacts. Effects from climate change may be more extreme over longer time scales (>50 years). The overriding pressure on running water ecosystems up to 2025 will stem from the predicted increase in the human population, with concomitant increases in urban development, industry, agricultural activities and water abstraction, diversion and damming. Future degradation could be substantial and rapid (c. 10 years) and will be concentrated in those areas of the world where resources for conservation are most limited and knowledge of lotic ecosystems most incomplete; damage will centre on lowland rivers, which are also relatively poorly studied. Changes in management practices and public awareness do appear to be benefiting running water ecosystems in developed countries, and could underpin conservation strategies in developing countries if they were implemented in a relevant way.

Disturbances to key aspects of ecological systems, including biodiversity loss, climate change, pollution and natural resource degradation, have become a major concern to many policy analysts. Instead of learning from the study of biological complexity however, social scientists tend to recommend simple panaceas, particularly government or private ownership, as ‘the’ way to solve these problems. This paper reviews and assesses potential solutions for such overly simplified institutional prescriptions, referred to here as the ‘panacea problem’. In contrast to these simple prescriptions, recent research efforts are now illustrating the diversity of institutions around the world related to environmental conservation. The complexity of working institutions, however, presents a challenge to scholars who equate scientific knowledge with relatively simple models that predict optimal performance if specific institutional arrangements are in place. Dealing with this complexity has led to the development of frameworks as meta-theoretical tools. The institutional analysis and development (IAD) framework has been used over the last three decades as a foundation for a focused analysis of how institutions affect human incentives, actions and outcomes. Building on this foundation, the social-ecological systems (SES) framework has recently enabled researchers to begin the development of a common language that crosses social and ecological disciplines to analyse how interactions among a variety of factors affect outcomes. Such a framework may be able to facilitate a diagnostic approach that will help future analysts overcome the panacea problem. Using a common framework to diagnose the source, and possible amelioration, of poor outcomes for ecological and human systems enables a much finer understanding of these complex systems than has so far been obtained, and provides a basis for comparisons among many systems and ultimately more responsible policy prescriptions.

The concept of ecosystem services (ES), the benefits humans derive from ecosystems, is increasingly applied to environmental conservation, human well-being and poverty alleviation, and to inform the development of interventions. Payments for ecosystem services (PES) implicitly recognize the unequal distribution of the costs and benefits of maintaining ES, through monetary compensation from ‘winners’ to ‘losers’. Some research into PES has examined how such schemes affect poverty, while other literature addresses trade-offs between different ES. However, much evolving ES literature adopts an aggregated perspective of humans and their well-being, which can disregard critical issues for poverty alleviation. This paper identifies four issues with examples from coastal ES in developing countries. First, different groups derive well-being benefits from different ES, creating winners and losers as ES, change. Second, dynamic mechanisms of access determine who can benefit. Third, individuals' contexts and needs determine how ES contribute to well-being. Fourth, aggregated analyses may neglect crucial poverty alleviation mechanisms such as cash-based livelihoods. To inform the development of ES interventions that contribute to poverty alleviation, disaggregated analysis is needed that focuses on who derives which benefits from ecosystems, and how such benefits contribute to the well-being of the poor. These issues present challenges in data availability and selection of how and at which scales to disaggregate. Disaggregation can be applied spatially, but should also include social groupings, such as gender, age and ethnicity, and is most important where inequality is greatest. Existing tools, such as stakeholder analysis and equity weights, can improve the relevance of ES research to poverty alleviation.

Saltmarshes are a major, widely distributed, intertidal habitat. They are dynamic systems, responding to changing environmental conditions. For centuries, saltmarshes have been subject to modification or destruction because of human activity. In this review, the range of factors influencing the survival of saltmarshes is discussed. Of critical importance are changes in relative sea level and in tidal range. Relative sea level is affected by changes in absolute sea level, changes in land level and the capacity of saltmarshes to accumulate and retain sediment. Many saltmarshes are starved of sediment because of catchment modification and coastal engineering, or exposed to erosive forces, which may be of natural origin or reflect human interference. The geographical distribution of individual saltmarsh species reflects climate, so that global climatic change will be reflected by changes in distribution and abundance of species, although the rate of change in communities dominated by perennial plants is difficult to predict. Humans have the ability to create impacts on saltmarshes at a range of scales from individual sites to globally. Pressures on the environment created by the continued increase in the human population, particularly in developing tropical countries, and the likely consequences of the enhanced greenhouse effect on both temperature and sea level give rise to particular concerns. Given the concentration of population growth and development in the coastal zone, and the potential sensitivity of saltmarsh to change in sea level, it is timely to review the present state of saltmarshes and to assess the likelihood of changes in the near (25 years) future. By 2025, global sea level rise and warming will have impacts on saltmarshes. However, the most extensive changes are likely to be the direct result of human actions at local or regional scales. Despite increasing recognition of the ecological value of saltmarsh, major projects involving loss of saltmarshes but deemed to be in the public interest will be approved. Pressures are likely to be particularly severe in the tropics, where very little is known about saltmarshes. At the local scale the cumulative impacts of activities, which individually have minor effects, may be considerable. Managers of saltmarshes will be faced with difficult choices including questions as to whether traditional uses should be retained, whether invasive alien species or native species increasing in abundance should be controlled, whether planned retreat is an appropriate response to rising relative sea level or whether measures can be taken to reduce erosion. Decisions will need to take into account social and economic as well as ecological concerns.

Sustainability science has developed from a new research field into a vibrant discipline in its own right, with scientific conferences, journals and scientific societies dedicated to its pursuit. Characterized more by its research purpose than by a common set of methods or objects, sustainability science can be subdivided into the more traditional disciplinary-based science for sustainability and the transdisciplinary science of sustainability. Whereas the former consists of more descriptive, analytical and basic science, the latter is characterized by reflexivity and applicability; on a meta level, the emergence of the latter can be understood as a new step in the evolution of science. This review provides an overview of the state of sustainability science, identifying action orientation, integrated assessments and interdisciplinarity as overall characteristics. The review also focuses on methodological issues, highlighting differences in project organization and management, and the ways in which stakeholder participation can be organized in interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research projects. Sustainability science is recognized as essential for progress towards sustainability, and as an opportunity to bring science closer to the people, requiring significant changes in the way science is organized and conducted.

Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil’s new president) and “ruralists” (large landholders and their representatives) have initiated a series of measures that threaten Amazonia’s environment and traditional peoples, as well as global climate. These include weakening the country’s environmental agencies and forest code, granting amnesty to deforestation, approving harmful agrochemicals, reducing protected areas, and denying the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Both the measures themselves and the expectation of impunity they encourage have spurred increased deforestation, which contributes to climate change and to land conflicts with traditional peoples. Countries and companies that import Brazilian beef, soy and minerals are stimulating these impacts.

There is increasing emphasis on the need for effective ways of sharing knowledge to enhance environmental management and sustainability. Knowledge exchange (KE) are processes that generate, share and/or use knowledge through various methods appropriate to the context, purpose, and participants involved. KE includes concepts such as sharing, generation, coproduction, comanagement, and brokerage of knowledge. This paper elicits the expert knowledge of academics involved in research and practice of KE from different disciplines and backgrounds to review research themes, identify gaps and questions, and develop a research agenda for furthering understanding about KE. Results include 80 research questions prefaced by a review of research themes. Key conclusions are: (1) there is a diverse range of questions relating to KE that require attention; (2) there is a particular need for research on understanding the process of KE and how KE can be evaluated; and (3) given the strong interdependency of research questions, an integrated approach to understanding KE is required. To improve understanding of KE, action research methodologies and embedding evaluation as a normal part of KE research and practice need to be encouraged. This will foster more adaptive approaches to learning about KE and enhance effectiveness of environmental management.

Illegal hunting of resident and migratory herbivores is widespread in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. To devise effective strategies to reduce levels of hunting, information is required on why people are involved in illegal hunting and the role of bushmeat in the local economy. Participation in hunting may be influenced by measures of relative wealth, including livestock ownership, means of generating cash income and access to alternative sources of meat. Data came from 300 individuals responding to a questionnaire in 10 villages, from responses by 359 people in 24 group discussions in another 12 villages, and from 552 people arrested and interviewed in the National Park. A smaller proportion of individual respondents (32%) than group respondents (57%) volunteered that they participated in illegal hunting. Most individual and group respondents were subsistence farmers who considered bushmeat to be a source of protein and a means of generating cash income. Three-quarters of those arrested participated in hunting primarily to generate cash income and a quarter claimed that they only hunted to obtain food. Participation in illegal hunting decreased as wealth in terms of the number of sheep and goats owned increased. People with access to alternative means of generating income or acquiring protein were also less likely to be involved in illegal hunting. Arrested respondents were typically young adult males with low incomes and few or no livestock. Illegal hunting was not reduced by participation in community-based conservation pro-grammes. Results suggested that between 52 000 and 60 000 people participated in illegal hunting within protected areas, and that many young men (approximately 5200) derived their primary source of income from hunting.