Empirical Economics

Whether including monetary aggregates and different financial variables into small scale BVAR models improves the accuracy of output forecasts is tested for three emerging European economies. Various specifications for the priors of the BVAR models are used. The results are found to vary with respect to prior specification, variables, as well as prediction horizon. The evidence is stronger when the forecasting accuracy is compared based on log predictive likelihood but weaker when the RMSEs are used. These results may constitute evidence against dismissing the monetary aggregates or financial variables as completely irrelevant.

This paper provides an analysis of multivariate unobserved components models for the estimation of potential output and the output gap in the euro area. Bivariate models of output and inflation and multivariate model-based implementations of the production function approach are considered; according to the latter potential output is derived from the permanent components of the factors of production consistent with stable inflation, whereas the output gap results from the combination of the transitory components. This approach allows to measure the contribution of the various factors of production to potential output growth, and to assess the reliability of the output gap estimates. Various alternative statistical specifications for the separation of trend and cycle are considered entertaining different economic hypotheses. The paper also provides an assessment of the reliability of the alternative output gap estimates and analyses their predictive validity by means of a rolling forecast exercise that provides an evaluation of the capability to forecast future inflation.

This paper employs a new econometric method to estimate the Turkish core inflation measured as shifting means in levels. Using monthly series between 1955 and 2015, we estimate the core inflation and determine its number of shifts using the Bayesian information criteria, the hv-block cross-validation, the Lin–Terasvirta parameter constancy test, and the neural networks test for neglected nonlinearity. We find that there are at least three shifts in the core inflation series. The findings help detect the exact dates of the shifts between different inflation regimes and the duration of each regime, which should be important information in evaluating the success of past economic policies in fighting inflation. We also compare the method with two existing core inflation measures, the consumer price index excluding food and energy and the exponential smoothing method, and find superior results.

This study measures unfair inequality in Brazil between 1995 and 2009. To achieve that, we used the statistical tool developed by Almås et al. (J Public Econ 95:488–499, 2011) and the concept of “responsibility-sensitive” fairness proposed by Bossert (Math Soc Sci 29:1–17, 1995), Konow (J Econ Behav Organ 31(1):13–35, 1996) and Cappelen and Tungodden (Fairness and the proportionality principle, Discussion paper SAM 31/2007. Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, 2007). The results indicate that the fairness level in Brazil remained unchanged throughout the analyzed period.

This paper proposes two bootstrap-based tests that can be used to infer whether the individual slopes in a panel regression model are homogenous. The first test is suitable when wanting to infer the null of homogeneity versus the general alternative, while the second is suitable when wanting to infer the units of the panel that can be pooled. Both approaches are shown to be asymptotically valid, a property that is verified in small samples using Monte Carlo simulation.

This study uses a rich city-level dataset to analyse the relationship between information and communication technology (ICT) and economic growth in Chinese cities during 2001–2016. It is shown that ICT not only improves the aggregate efficiency of a city but also helps the city absorb technological diffusion from the frontier city. In addition, distance plays little role in technological diffusion process associated with ICT. Cities geographically farther away from or closer to the frontier city can equally benefit from technological diffusion as long as they have the same level of ICT development.

This paper analyses consumers’ preferences for a local food in Spain and assesses their willingness to pay (WTP) using a real choice experiment to mitigate possible hypothetical bias. In particular, preferences for fresh lamb meat were investigated and two attributes evaluated, “locally grown” and the type of lamb meat. Data came from an experiment conducted in Spain during 2009. An error component random Parameter model with correlated errors was used to estimate the effect of the attributes on consumers’ utility and derive their WTP. Results suggest that consumers positively value both attributes and are willing to pay a premium of 9 % price increase for the “locally grown” lamb meat (“Ojinegra from Teruel”) and 13 % price increase for the “Ternasco” lamb meat. If we assume a market where only “Ternasco” lamb meat without indication of the local origin is sold, and then a new “Ternasco” lamb is introduced in the market with the “Ojinegra from Teruel” label, this new local lamb meat would capture 18 % of the market if the package is assumed to be sold at 3.5 $$\hbox {C}\!\!\!\!\!=$$ and a 10 % market share if the package is assumed to be sold at 4 $$\hbox {C}\!\!\!\!\!=$$ .