Will the Oxygen-Phosphorus Paradigm Persist? – Expert Views of the Future of Management and Restoration of Eutrophic Lakes
Tóm tắt
In the age of climate change, the demand and lack of pure water challenges many communities. Substantial amount of effort is put in every year to manage and restore degraded lakes while the long-term effects of those efforts are only poorly known or monitored. Oxygenation, or aeration, is used extensively for the restoration of eutrophic lakes, although many studies question whether this process improves the status of the lakes in the long-term. The desired effect of oxygenation is based on paradigmatic theories that, in the light of recent literature, might not be adequate when long-term improvements are sought. This article canvasses expert views on the feasibility of the ‘oxygen–phosphorus paradigm’ as well as the future of the management and restoration of eutrophic lakes, based on an international, two-rounded, expert panel survey (Delphi study), employing 200 freshwater experts from 33 nationalities, contacted at three conferences on the topic. The conclusion is that the oxygen-phosphorus paradigm seems to be rather persistent. The experts considered oxygenation to be a valid short-term lake restoration method, but not without harmful side-effects. In addition, experts’ low level of trust in the adequacy of the scientific knowledge on the effects of restorations and in the use of the scientific knowledge as a basis of choice of restoration methods, could be signs of a paradigm shift towards an outlook emphasizing more effective catchment management over short-term restorations. The expert panel also anticipated that reducing external nutrient loads from both point and diffuse sources will succeed in the future.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Barber B (1961) Resistance by scientists to scientific discovery. Science 134(3479):596–602
Bell W (1997) Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era. Volume I: History, Purposes, and Knowledge. Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick (USA) and London (UK)
Bennion H, Battarbee RW, Sayer CD, Simpson GL, Davidson TA (2011) Defining reference conditions and restoration targets for lake ecosystems using palaeolimnology: a synthesis. J Paleolimnol 45(4):533–544. doi:10.1007/s10933-010-9419-3
Beutel MW, Horne AJ (1999) A Review of the effects of hypolimnetic oxygenation on lake and reservoir water quality. Lake Reserv Manage 15(4):285–297
Beutel M, Hannoun I, Pasek J, Bowman Kavanagh K (2007) Evaluation of hypolimnetic oxygen demand in a large eutrophic raw water reservoir, San Vicente Reservoir, Calif. J Environ Eng 133:130–138
Boström B, Jansson M, Forsberg C (1982) Phosphorus release from lake sediments. Archiv für Hydrobiologie Beiheft Ergebnisse der Limnologie 18:5–59
Boström B, Andersen JM, Fleischer S, Jansson M (1988) Exchange of phosphorus across the sediment-water interface. Hydrobiologia 170:299–244
Brown ED, Williams BK (2015) Resilience and Resource Management. Environ Manage 56(6):1416–1427. doi:10.1007/s00267-015-0582-1
Cai W-J, Sayles FL (1996) Oxygen penetration depths and fluxes in marine sediments. Mar Chem 52:123–131
Carpenter S, Cottingham K (1997) Resilience and restoration of lakes. Ecol Soc 1(1):2
Carpenter S, Walker B, Anderies JM, Abel N (2001) From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what? Ecosystems 4(8):765–781
Cooke GD, Welch EB, Peterson SA, Nichols SA (2005) Restoration and management of lakes and reservoirs. Boca Raton, 3rd edn. Taylor & Francis, London
de Loë RC, Melnychuk N, Murray D, Plummer R (2016) Advancing the state of policy delphi practice: a systematic review evaluating methodological evolution, innovation, and opportunities. Technol Forecast Soc Change 104:78–88
Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 Establishing a Framework for Community Action in the Field of Water Policy. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/En/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32000L0060. Accessed 1 Mar 2017
Dosi G (1982) Technological paradigms and technological trajectories. Res Policy 11(3):147–162. doi:10.1016/0048-7333(82)90016-6
Doke JL, Funk WH, Juul STJ, Moore BC (1995) Habitat availability and benthic invertebrate population changes following alum treatment and hypolimnetic oxygenation in Newman Lake, Washington. J Freshw Ecol 10:87–102
Einsele W (1936) Über Die Beziehung Des Eisens, Des pH Und Der Fäulnisvorgänge Für Den Kreislauf Des Phosphats. Fischereizeitung 39:1–8
Gantzer PA, Bryant LD, Little JC (2009) Effect of hypolimnetic oxygenation on oxygen depletion rates in two water-supply reservoirs. Water Res 43:1700–1710
Geels FW, Schot J (2010) The dynamics of transitions: a socio-technical perspective. In: Grin J, Rotmans J, Schot J (ed) Transitions to Sustainable Development: New Directions in the Study of Long Term Transformative Change. Routledge, Taylor & Francis, New York, NY, pp 11–105
Geels FW (2004) From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical`systems: insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Res Policy 33(6–7):897–920
Glenn JC, Florescu E (eds) (2015) 2015-2016 State of the Future. The Millennium Project, USA
Gordon, TJ (2012) The delphi method. In: Glenn JC, Gordon TJ (eds) Futures Research Methodology-V 3.0. The Millenium Project. http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/RTD-method.pdf. Accessed 8 Aug 2017
Gächter R, Wehrli B (1998) Ten years of artificial mixing and oxygenation: no effect on the internal phosphorus loading of two eutrophic lakes. Environ Sci Technol 32(23):3659–3665
Holmroos H, Horppila J, Laakso S, Niemistö J, Hietanen S (2016) Aeration-induced changes in temperature and nitrogen dynamics in a dimictic lake. J Environ Qual 45:1359–1366
Holmroos H, Niemistö J, Weckström K, Horppila J (2009) Seasonal Variation of Resuspension-Mediated Aerobic Release of Phosphorus. Boreal Environ Res 14:937–946
Horppila J, Holmroos HJ, Niemisto J, Massa I, Nygren N, Schönach P, Tapio P, Tammeorg O (2017) Variations of internal phosphorus loading and water quality in a hypertrophic lake during 40 years of different management efforts. Ecol Eng 103:264–274
Horppila J, Köngäs P, Niemistö J, Hietanen S (2015) Oxygen flux and penetration depth in the sediments of aerated and non-aerated lake basins. Int Rev Hydrobiol 100(3-4):106–115
Hukkinen J (1993) Bayesian analysis of agricultural drainage problems in California’s San Joaquin valley. J Environ Manage 37(3):183–200. doi:10.1006/jema.1993.1015
Hupfer M, Lewandowski J (2008) Oxygen controls the phosphorus release from lake sediments? a long-lasting paradigm in limnology. Int Rev Hydrobiol 93(4–5):415–432
Jeppesen E, Kronvang B, Meerhoff M, Søndergaard M, Hansen KM, Andersen HE, Lauridsen TL, Liboriussen L, Beklioglu M, Özen A (2009) Climate change effects on runoff, catchment hosphorus loading and lake ecological state, and potential adaptations. J Environ Qual 38(5):1930–1941
Jeppesen E, Kristensen P, Jensen JP, Søndergaard M, Mortensen M, Lauridsen TL (1991) Recovery Resilience following a reduction in external phosphorus loading of shallow, eutrophic danish lakes: duration, regulating factors and methods for overcoming resilience. Memorie Dell’Istituto Italiano Di Idrobiologia Dott. Marco De Marchi 48:127–148
Krippendorff K (2004) Content Analysis: An Introduction to its Methodology, 2nd edn. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA
Kruskal WH, Wallis WA (1952) Use of ranks in one-criterion variance analysis. J Am Stat Assoc 47(260):583–621
Kuha JK, Palomäki AH, Keskinen JT, Karjalainen JS (2016) Negligible effect of hypolimnetic oxygenation on the trophic state of lake Jyväsjärvi, Finland. Limnologica-Ecol Manage Inland Waters 58:1–6
Kuhn T (1962) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
Liboriussen L, Søndergaard M, Jeppesen E, Thorsgaard I, Grünfeld S, Jakobsen TS, Hansen K (2009) Effects of hypolimnetic oxygenation on water quality: results from Five Danish Lakes. Hydrobiologia 625(1):157–172
Linstone HA, Turoff M (eds) (1975) The delphi method. Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Don Mills
Likert R (1932) A technique for the measurement of attitudes. Archives Psychol 140:1–55
Loorbach D (2010) Transition management for sustainable development: a prescriptive, complexity-based governance framework. Governance 23(1):161–183
Ludwig D (2001) The era of management is over. Ecosystems 4(8):758–764
Masini E (1993) Why Futures Studies? Grey Seal, London
Mattila H (2005) Ulkoisen kuormituksen vähentäminen [diminishing external loading]. In: Ulvi T, Lakso E (eds) Järvien Kunnostus [Restoration of Lakes]. Edita Prima Oy, Helsinki, pp 137–150
Mayer AL, Rietkerk M (2004) The dynamic regime concept for ecosystem management and restoration. BioScience 54(11):1013–1020
Moosmann L, Gächter R, Müller B, Wüest A (2006) Is phosphorus retention in autochthonous lake sediments controlled by oxygen OR phosphorus? Limnol Oceanogr 31(1, part 2):763–771
Mortimer CH (1941) The exchange of dissolved substances between mud and water in lakes I. J Ecol 29(2):280–329
Mortimer CH (1942) The exchange of dissolved substances between mud and water in lakes II. J Ecol 30(1):147–201
Müller R, Stadelmann P (2004) Fish habitat requirements as the basis for rehabilitation of eutrophic lakes by oxygenation. Fish Manag Ecol 11:251–260
Nielsen LP, Christensen PB, Revsbech NP, Sørensen J (1990) Denitrification and oxygen respiration in biofilms studied with a microsensor for nitrous oxide and oxygen. Microb Ecol 19:63–72
Niemistö J, Köngäs P, Härkönen L, Horppila J (2016) Hypolimntetic aeration intensifies phosphorus recycling and increases organic material sedimentation in a stratifying lake: effects through increased temperature and turbulence. Boreal Environ Res 21:571–587
Papastergiadou E, Kagalou I, Stefanidis K, Retalis A, Leonardos I (2010) Effects of anthropogenic influences on the trophic state, land uses and aquatic vegetation in a shallow mediterranean lake: implications for restoration. Water Res Manage (2010) 24:415. doi:10.1007/s11269-009-9453-y
Paine RT (2002) Advances in ecological understanding: by kuhnian revolution or conceptual evolution? Ecology 83(6):1553–1559
Petticrew EL, Arocena JM (2001) Evaluation of iron-phosphate as a source of internal phosphorus loadings. Sci Total Environ 266:87–93
Postel SL (2000) Entering an era of water scarcity: the challenges ahead. Ecol Appl 10(4):941–948
Preble JF (1983) Public sector use of the delphi technique. Technol Forecast Soc Change 23(1):75–88. doi:10.1016/0040-1625(83)90072-0
Regnell O, Tunlid A (1991) Laboratory study of chemical speciation of mercury in lake sediment and water under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. Appl Environ Microbiol 57:789–795
Rittel HWJ, Webber MM (1973) Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy Sci 4(2):155–169
Rockström J, Steffen W, Noone K, Persson Å, Chapin FS, Lambin E, Lenton TM, Scheffer M, Folke C, Schellnhuber HJ et al. (2009) Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecol Soc 14(2):32
Rotmans J, Kemp R, van Asselt M (2001) More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy. Foresight 3(1):15–31
Rowe G, Wright G (1999) The delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. Int J Forecast 15(4):353–375
Salmi P (2015) Effects of Mechanical Mixing on Lake Water Quality, with Special Emphasis on Under-Ice Phytoplankton. Jyväskylä Studies in Biological and Environmental Science. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä
Schindler DW (2006) Recent advances in the understanding and management of eutrophication. Limnol Oceanogr 51(1):356–363
Schindler DW (2012) The dilemma of controlling cultural eutrophication of lakes. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 279(1746):4322–4333
Schönach P, Tapio P, Holmroos H, Horppila J, Niemistö J, Nygrén NA, Tammeorg O & Massa I (2017) Persistency of artificial aeration at hypertrophic lake tuusulanjärvi: a sociohistorical analysis. Ambio, in press. doi:10.1007/s13280-017-0926-6
Shaw TJ, Gieskes JM, Jahnke RA (1990) Early diagenesis in differing depositional environments: The response of transition metals in porewater. Geochim Cosmochim Acta 54:1233–1246
Singleton V, Little JC (2006) Designing hypolimnetic aeration and oxygenation systems-a review. Environ Sci Technol 40(24):7512–7520
Smith VH, Schindler DW (2009) Eutrophication science: where do we go from here? Trends Ecol Evol 24:201–207
Sollie S, Janse JH, Mooij WM, Coops H, Verhoeven JTA (2008) The contribution of marsh zones to water quality in Dutch shallow lakes: a modeling study. Environ Manage 42(6):1002–1016. doi:10.1007/s00267-008-9121-7
Steinert M (2009) A dissensus based online delphi approach: an explorative research tool. Technol Forecast Soc Change 76(3):291–300
Stigebrandt A, Liljebladh B, de Brabandere L, Forth M, Granmo Å, Hall P, Hammar J, Hansson D, Kononets M, Magnusson M, Norén F, Rahm L, Treusch AH, Viktorsson L (2015) An experiment with forced oxygenation of the deepwater of the anoxic By Fjord, Western Sweden. Ambio 44:42–54
Suding KN, Gross KL, Houseman GR (2004) Alternative states and positive feedbacks in restoration ecology. Trends Ecol Evol 19(1):46–53
Søndergaard M, Jensen JP, Jeppesen E (2003) Role of sediment and internal loading of phosphorus in shallow Lakes. Hydrobiologia 506(1):135–145
Søndergaard M, Jeppesen E, Jensen JP, Lauridsen TL (2000) Lake restoration in Denmark. Lakes Reserv 5(3):151–159
Søndergaard M, Jeppesen E, Lauridsen TL, Skov C, Van Nes EH, Roijackers R, Lammens E, Portielje R (2007) Lake restoration: successes, failures and long-term effects. J Appl Ecol 44(6):1095–1105
Tammeorg O, Möls T, Niemistö J, Holmroos H, Horppila J (2017) The actual role of oxygen deficit in the linkage of the water quality and benthic phosphorus release: potential implications for lake restoration. Sci Total Environ 599-600:732–738
Tapio P (2003) Disaggregative Policy Delphi. using Cluster Analysis as a Tool for Systematic Scenario Formation. Technol Forecast Soc Change 70:83–101
Thornton JA, Harding WJ, Dent M, Hart RC, Lin H, Rast CL, Rast W, Ryding S-O, Slawski TM (2013) Eutrophication as a ‘wicked’ Problem. Lakes Reserv 18(4):298–316
Valtioneuvoston Päätös Vuoksen, Kymijoen-Suomenlahden, Kokemäenjoen-Saaristomeren-Selkämeren, Oulujoen-Iijoen, Kemijoen, Tornionjoen Sekä Tenon-Näätämöjoen-Paatsjoen Vesienhoitoalueiden Vesienhoitosuunnitelmista Vuosiksi 2016-2021 (2015). Liite 1. Perustelumuistio. [Finnish Government’s Resolution on Water Resource Management Plans for Years 2016-2021, Appendix 1.] http://www.ymparisto.fi/download/noname/%7B9760BF4A-A789-4D26-8054-428B7F9FBD56%7D/114339. Accessed 1 Mar 2017
Van Dijk JAGM (1990) Delphi method as a learning instrument: bank employees discussing an automation project. Technol Forecast Soc Change 37(4):399–407
Varho V, Huutoniemi K (2014) Envisioning solutions: expert deliberation on environmental futures. In: Huutoniemi K, Tapio P (eds) Transdisciplinary Sustainability Studies: A Heuristic Approach. Routledge, Taylor & Fracis Group, London and New York, NY, pp 140–157
Väisänen T, Lakso E (2005) Tavoitteiden asettelu ja kunnostusmenetelmän valinta [Placing targets and choosing a restoration method]. In: Ulvi T, Lakso E (eds) Järvien Kunnostus [Restoration of Lakes] Edita Prima Oy, Helsinki. 75–90
Walz N, Adrian R (2008) Is there a paradigm shift in limnology and marine biology? Int Rev Hydrobiol 93(4-5):633–638
Whitehead PG, Wilby RL, Battarbee RW, Kernan M, Wade AJ (2009) A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality. Hydrol Sci J 54(1):101–123
Wilkins AS (1996) Are there ‘Kuhnian’ Revolutions in Biology? BioEssays 18(9):695–696