Why study expert decision making? Some historical perspectives and comments

Anderson, 1981

Ashton, 1974, An experimental study of internal control judgments, Journal of Accounting Research, 143, 10.2307/2490532

Camerer, 1991, The process-performance paradox in expert judgment: How can experts know so much and predict so badly?

Carroll, 1976, The psychology of parole decision processes: A joint application of attribution theory and information-processing psychology, 13

Chan, 1982, Expert judgments made under uncertainty: Some evidence and suggestions, Social Science Quarterly, 63, 428

Chi, 1988

Christensen-Szalanski, 1981, Physician's use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 7, 928, 10.1037/0096-1523.7.4.928

Cullen, 1988, The knowledge acquisition bottleneck: Time for a reassessment?, Expert Systems, 5, 216, 10.1111/j.1468-0394.1988.tb00065.x

Dawes, 1974, Linear models in decision making, Psychological Bulletin, 81, 95, 10.1037/h0037613

1988

Duda, 1979, Model design in the PROSPECTOR expert system for mineral exploration, 153

Ebbesen, 1975, Decision making and information integration in the courts: The setting of bail, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 805, 10.1037/0022-3514.32.5.805

Edwards, 1965, Emerging technologies for making decisions, 261

Edwards, 1968, Probabilistic information processing systems: Design and evaluation, IEEE Transactions on System Science and Cybernetics, SSC-4, 248, 10.1109/TSSC.1968.300119

Einhorn, 1974, Expert judgment: Some necessary conditions and an example, Journal of Applied Psychology, 59, 562, 10.1037/h0037164

1991

Feigenbaum, 1971, On generality and problem solving: A case study using the DENDRAL program, 165

Fischhoff, 1977, Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 552, 10.1037/0096-1523.3.4.552

Foss, 1975, Testing the accuracy of field textures, 39, 800

Gaeth, 1979, Analysis of the Soil Survey Laboratory data and description for some soils of Kansas: Validity of the soil-texture classifications

Goldberg, 1959, The effectiveness of clinician's judgments: The diagnosis of organic brain damage from the Bender-Gestalt Test, Journal of Consulting Psychology, 23, 25, 10.1037/h0048736

Goldberg, 1968, Simple models or simple processes? Some research on clinical judgments, American Psychologist, 23, 483, 10.1037/h0026206

Goldberg, 1969, The search for configural relationships in personality assessment: The diagnosis of psychosis vs. neurosis from the MMPI, Multivariate Behavioral Research, 4, 523, 10.1207/s15327906mbr0404_7

Goldberg, 1970, Man vs. model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving clinical inferences, Psychological Bulletin, 73, 422, 10.1037/h0029230

Hammond, 1955, Probabilistic functioning and the clinical method, Psychological Review, 62, 255, 10.1037/h0046845

Hart, 1989

Hoffman, 1960, The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment, Psychological Bulletin, 57, 116, 10.1037/h0047807

Hoffman, 1968, An analysis of variance model for the assessment of configural cue utilization in clinical judgment, Psychological Bulletin, 69, 338, 10.1037/h0025665

Hoffman, R. R., Shanteau, J., Burton, A. M., Shadbolt, N. R., & Akerstrom, R. A. (in press). The cognitive psychology of expertise: A review of theories and findings.

Hughes, 1917, An interesting corn seed experiment, The Iowa Agriculturalist, 17, 424

Joyce, 1976, Expert judgment in audit program planning, Journal of Accounting Research, 14, 29, 10.2307/2490445

Kahneman, 1991, Judgment and decision making: A personal view, Psychological Science, 2, 142, 10.1111/j.1467-9280.1991.tb00121.x

Kidd, 1987

Lichtenstein, 1982, Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980

Meehl, 1954

Messier, 1983, The effect of experience and firm type on materiality/disclosure judgments, Journal of Accounting Research, 21, 611, 10.2307/2490795

1987

Murphy A. H. (1980) Personal communication cited by Lichtenstein, Fischhoff, & Phillips (1982).

Murphy, 1977, Can weather forecasters formulate reliable forecasts of precipitation and temperature?, National Weather Digest, 2, 2

Northcraft, 1987, Expert, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39, 84, 10.1016/0749-5978(87)90046-X

Oskamp, 1962, The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical prediction, Psychological Monographs, 76, 10.1037/h0093849

Oskamp, 1965, Overconfidence in case-study judgments, Journal of Consulting Psychology, 29, 261, 10.1037/h0022125

Oskamp, 1967, Clinical judgment from the MMPI: Simple or complex?, Journal of Clinical Psychology, 23, 411, 10.1002/1097-4679(196710)23:4<411::AID-JCLP2270230403>3.0.CO;2-P

Phelps, 1978, Livestock judges: How much information can an expert use?, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 21, 209, 10.1016/0030-5073(78)90050-8

Reddy, 1988, Foundations and grand challenges of artificial intelligence, AI Magazine, 9

Reilly, 1989, A note on the assessment of self-insight in judgment research, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 44, 123, 10.1016/0749-5978(89)90038-1

Schwartz, 1986

Shanteau, 1989, Cognitive heuristics and biases in behavioral auditing: Review, comments and observations, Accounting, Organizations and Society, 14, 165, 10.1016/0361-3682(89)90040-8

Shanteau, J. (Ed.). (In preparation). Expert decision making: Psychological explorations of competence. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Shanteau, 1981, Evaluation of the field method of soil texture classification: A psychological analysis of accuracy and consistency

Shortcliffe, 1976

Slovic, 1969, Analyzing the expert judge: A descriptive study of a stockbroker's decision processes, Journal of Applied Psychology, 53, 255, 10.1037/h0027773

Slovic, 1985, Regulation of risk: A psychological perspective

Smith, 1991, Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditing, Psychological Bulletin, 109, 472, 10.1037/0033-2909.109.3.472

Trumbo, 1962, Reliability and accuracy in the inspection of hard red winter wheat, Cereal Science Today, 7, 62

Tversky, 1971, The belief in the “aw of small numbers.”, Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105, 10.1037/h0031322

Tversky, 1974, Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, Science, 185, 1124, 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124

Wallace, 1923, What is in the corn judge's mind?, Journal of the American Society of Agronomy, 15, 300, 10.2134/agronj1923.00021962001500070006x

Webster's, 1979

Williams, 1951, The use of confidence factors in forecasting, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 32, 279, 10.1175/1520-0477-32.8.279

1992