Vulnerability of timber supply to projected changes in fire regime in Canada’s managed forests

Canadian Journal of Forest Research - Tập 45 Số 11 - Trang 1439-1447 - 2015
Sylvie Gauthier1,2, Pierre Y. Bernier1,2, Yan Boulanger1,2, Jian Guo1,2, Luc Guindon1,2, André Beaudoin1,2, Dominique Boucher1,2
1Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Quebec, QC G1V 4C7, Canada
2Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre Québec, QC, G1V 4C7, Canada

Tóm tắt

The frequency of forest fires is predicted to increase in Canada, which may affect the availability of timber for industrial purposes. We therefore carried out an evaluation of the timber supply vulnerability to current and future fire risk through simplified calculations involving historical forest growth and harvest rates and current and projected forest burn rates. Calculations were performed at the level of forest management areas (FMAs) across the boreal and montane ecozones of Canada. For some FMAs, the vulnerability of timber supply to fire was estimated to be high to extreme by the middle of the century. For those FMAs, the increases in tree growth necessary to negate these risks were generally unrealistic. A modest simulated decrease in tree growth over time, however, was sufficient to raise the vulnerability of many other FMAs from low to moderate. Known biases in the analysis suggest that our assessment might underestimate the level of vulnerability in all FMAs. Other natural disturbances are not included in the analysis but their impact on timber supply may be additive to that of fire. Some adaptation measures to face these increasing risks are discussed.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1073/pnas.1203467109

10.1139/cjfr-2013-0401

Bettinger, P., Boston, K., Siry, J., and Grebner, D. 2008. Forest management and planning. Academic Press.

10.1139/X08-174

10.1139/cjfr-2013-0372

Boychuk D.B., 1996, For. Sci., 42, 10

Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W.J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A.J., and Wehner, M. 2013. Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility.InClimate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Edited byT.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York.

10.1139/x04-174

10.1080/01621459.1983.10478017

Ecological Stratification Working Group. 1996. A National Ecological Framework for Canada. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Research Branch, Centre for Land and Biological Resources Research, and Environment Canada, State of the Environment Directorate, Ottawa.

10.1007/s10584-005-5935-y

10.1139/er-2013-0064

10.1139/cjfr-2014-0125

10.5558/tfc81214-2

10.1007/s10584-015-1373-7

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.12.010

10.5194/bg-9-2523-2012

10.1111/nph.12322

10.1111/gcb.12400

10.1139/cjfr-2014-0229

10.5558/tfc2013-010

10.1073/pnas.1409316111

10.5558/tfc77357-2

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.InContribution of Working Group II to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Edited byM.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

10.1890/04-1621

Johnson, E.A. 1992. Fire and vegetation dynamics: studies from the North American boreal forest. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02048.x

Larson B.M.H., 2000, Can. Field-Nat., 114, 78, 10.5962/p.363915

10.1139/cjfr-2014-0434

10.1038/ngeo313

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02357.x

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.01.013

10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.07.023

10.1029/2001JD000484

Taylor, S.W., Carroll, A.L., Alfaro, R.I., and Safranyik, L. 2006. Forest, climate and mountain pine beetle outbreak dynamics in western Canada.InThe mountain pine beetle: a synthesis of biology, management, and impacts on lodgepole pine.Edited byL. Safranyik and W.R. Wilson. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, British Columbia. pp. 67–94.

10.5558/tfc85057-1

10.1139/cjfr-2014-0273

10.1139/x78-034

10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010

10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Tập 45 Số 11

1439-1447

Thông tin tác giả