Vulnerability analysis of smallholder farmers to climate variability and change: an agro-ecological system-based approach in the Fincha’a sub-basin of the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Israel Tessema1, Belay Simane1
1Center for Environment and Development, College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Adger WN (2006) Vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 16:268–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006

Amare A, Simane B (2017) Climate change induced vulnerability of smallholder farmers: agroecology-based analysis in the Muger sub-basin of the upper Blue-Nile basin of Ethiopia. Am J Clim Chang 6:668–693. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.64034

Aryal S, Cockfield G, Maraseni TN (2014) Vulnerability of Himalayan transhumant communities to climate change. Clim Chang 125:193–208. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1157-5

Asrat P, Simane B (2017) Characterizing vulnerability of crop-based rural systems to climate change and variability: agro-ecology specific empirical evidence from the Dabus watershed, north-West Ethiopia. Am J Clim Chang 6:643–667. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.e2017.64033

Bezuayehu T (2006) People and Dams: environmental and socio-economic changes induced by a reservoir in Fincha’a watershed, western Ethiopia. Doctoral Thesis Wageningen University. ISBN: 90-8504-449-9

Hydropower-induced land use changes in Fincha’a watershed, western Ethiopia: analysis and impacts. Mountain Research and Development 28(1):72–80. https://doi.org/10.1659/mrd.0811

Byerlee D, Spielman DJ, Alemu D, Gautam M (2007) Policies to promote cereal intensification in Ethiopia: a review of evidence and experience. IFPRI discussion paper no. 707. IFPRI, Washington DC, p 37

Chala D, Belay S, Bamlaku A (2017) Farmers’ livelihoods vulnerability to climate variability and change in Didesa Basin southern part of Abay Basin, Ethiopia. In: Filho WL et al (eds) Climate change adaptation in Africa, climate change management. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49520-0_17

Chambers R, Conway G (1992) Sustainable rural livelihoods: practical concepts for the 21st century, IDS discussion paper 296. IDS, Brighton, p 33

Conway D (2000) Some aspects of climate variability in the north-east Ethiopian highlands-Wollo and Tigray. Ethiop J Sci 23:139–161

Conway D, Schipper ELF (2011) Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Glob Environ Chang 21:227–237

Cramb RA, Culasero Z (2003) Land care in the Philippines: an evaluation of the land care program in South Cotabato . ACIAR Land care Report No. 3. University of Queensland, Brisbane

CSA/Central Statistical Agency (2012) Agricultural sample survey 2011/2012, volume IV: report on land utilization. Central Statistical Agency, Addis Ababa

CSA/Central Statistical Agency (2013) Population projection of Ethiopia for all regions at district level from 2014–2017. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa

Cutter SL, Mitchell JT, Scott MS (2000) Revealing the vulnerability of people and places: a case study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Ann Am Assoc Geogr 90:713–737

Dechassa L (2003) Surplus producing eastern highland parts of eastern Wallagga zone badly hit by the current crisis. Assessment report submitted to the Office for the Coordination of Human Affairs, UN, Addis Ababa

Demeke AB, Keil A, Zeller M (2011) Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia. Clim Chang 108:185–206

Denekew A, Bekele S (2009) Characterization and atlas of the Blue Nile Basin and its sub basins. International Water Management Institute, Addis Ababa

Dercon S, Hoddinott J, Woldehanna T (2005) Vulnerability and shocks in 15 Ethiopian villages, 1999-2004. J Afr Econ 14:559–585

Deressa TT (2006) Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture: Ricardian approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No.25. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa. University of Pretoria, Ababa

Diao X, Pratt AN (2007) Growth options and poverty reduction in Ethiopia—an economy-wide model analysis. Food Policy 32:205–228

Etwire PM, Al-Hassan RM, Kuwornu JKM, Osei-Owusu Y (2013) Application of livelihood vulnerability index in assessing vulnerability to climate change and variability in northern Ghana. J Environ Earth Sci 3:157–170

Evangelista P, Young N, Burnett J (2013) How will climate change spatially affect agriculture production in Ethiopia? Case studies of important cereal crops. Climatic Change, 119 (2013), pp. 855–873. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0776-6 .

Füssel H (2007) Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Glob Environ Chang 17(2):155–167

Füssel HM, Klein RJT (2006) Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Clim Chang 75:301–329

Gutu T, Bezabih E, Mengistu K (2012) Analysis of vulnerability and resilience to climate change induced shocks in north Shewa. Ethiopia. J Agric Sci 3:871–888

Hahn MB, Riederer AM, Foster SO (2009) The livelihood vulnerability index: a pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change-cases study in Mozambique. Glob Environ Chang 19:74–88

Hurni H (1993) Land degradation, famine and land resources: scenarios in Ethiopia. In: Pimental D (ed) Soil Erosion and conservation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 27–62

ICRISAT/International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) (2006). Retrieved November 21, 2017, from the ICRISAT website: www.icrisat.org/what-we-do/

ILCA/International Livestock Centre for Africa (1990) Livestock Systems Research Manual. Working Paper 1, Vol. 1. ILCA, Addis Ababa, p 287

IPCC/Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) Climate Change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In: McCarthy JJ et al (eds) The contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

IPCC/Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 7–22

IPCC/Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part a: global and sectoral aspects. The contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

Kassie BT, Rotter RP, Hengsdijk H, Asseng S, Vanittersum MK, Kahiluoto H, Vankeulen H (2014) Climate variability and change in the central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. J Agric Sci 152:58–74

Kelly PM, Adger WN (2000) Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Clim Chang 47:325–352

Kim U, Kaluarachchi JJ (2009) Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1361-1378. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00369.x

Kindie T, Jemal S, Mezegebu G, Girma M (2016) Agriculture under a changing climate in Ethiopia: challenges and opportunities for research. Ethiopia Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) 50th Year Jubilee Anniversary Special Issue, pp 67–86

Mohan D, Sinha S (2010) Vulnerability assessment of people, livelihoods and ecosystems. WWF-India Retrieved from CAKE http://www.cakex.org/virtual-library/3458 . Accessed 05 July 2018

MoWIE/Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Electricity (2014) Preparation of watershed projects, Fincha’a'a catchment, Nile cooperation for results project. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa

Nelson GC, Rosegrant MW, Palazzo A, Gray I, Ingersoll C, Robertson R, Tokgoz S, Zhu T, Sulser TB, Ringler C, Msangi S, You L (2010) Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: scenarios, results, policy options. IFPRI Research Monograph, Washington, DC, p 130

O’Brien K, Eriksen S, Nygaard LP, Schjolden A (2007) Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses. Clim Pol 7(1):73–88

O’Brien K, Leichenko R, Kelkar U, Venema H, Aandahl G, Tompkins H (2004) Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalisation in India. Glob Environ Chang 14:303–313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.01.001

Pandey R, Jha S (2012) Climate vulnerability index-measure of climate change vulnerability to communities: a case of rural lower Himalaya, India. Mitig Adapt Strategy Glob Chang 17:487–506. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-011-9338-2

Panthi J, Dahal P, Shrestha ML, Aryal S, Krakauer NY, Pradhanang SM, Lakhankar T, Jha AK, Sharma M, Karki R (2015) Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Gandaki River basin of Nepal Himalaya. Climate 3:210–226

Pretty J (2003) Social capital and the collective management of resources. Science 302:1912–1914

Seleshi Y, Zanke U (2004) Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 24:973–983

Shah KU, Dulal HB, Johnson C, Baptiste A (2013) Understanding livelihood vulnerability to climate change: applying the livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock…livelihood vulnerability index in Trinidad and Tobago. Geoforum 47:125–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.04.004

Simane B, Zaitchik BF, Foltz JD (2014) Agro-ecosystem specific climate vulnerability analysis: application of the livelihood vulnerability index to a tropical highland region. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 21:39–65. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9568-1

Sullivan C, Meigh JR, Fediw TS (2002) Derivation and testing of the water poverty index phase 1, Final Report. Department for International Development, UK

Temesgen D, Hassan RM, Alemu T, Yesuf M, Ringler C (2008) Analyzing the determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods and perceptions of climate change in the Nile basin of Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00798. Environment and Production Technology Division, Washington, DC

Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Debela S, Tadesse M, Mekuriaw A, Debele B, Semane B, Gebrekidan B, Lemenih M, Zenebe M, Gebru G, Alemaw G, Assefa G, Georgis K, Desta S, Mengistu S, Berhanu W, Zenebe M (2015) First assessment report on agriculture and food security. Working group Ii- climate change impact, vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Ethiopian Panel on Climate Change (EPCC), Ethiopian Academy of Sciences (EAS), Addis Ababa, p 230

Turner BL II, Kasperson RE, Matsone PA, McCarthy JJ, Corellg RW, Lindsey Christensene NE et al (2003) A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. PNAS 100:8074–8079

UNDP/ United Nation Development Program (2007) Human development reports. Retrieved from: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/268/hdr_20072008_en_complete.pdf

Woldeamlak B (2009) Rainfall variability and crop production in Ethiopia: a case study in Amhara region. In: Ege S, Aspen H, Teferra B, Bekele S (eds) Proceedings of the 16th international conference of Ethiopian studies, Trondheim, pp 823–836

World Bank (2006) Sustainable Land Management: Challenges, Opportunities, and Trade-offs. World Bank Publications: Washington, DC. https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/978-0-8213-6597-7

World Bank (2010) Economics of adaptation to climate change, Ethiopia. Washington DC https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/12504