Using the multiple scenario approach for envisioning plausible futures in long-term planning and management of the urban water pipe systems

Marlow DR, Moglia M, Cook S, Beale DJ (2013) Towards sustainable urban water management: a critical reassessment. Water Res 47(20):7150–7161 Postma TJBM, Liebl F (2005) How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool? Tech Forecast Soc Chang 72(2):161–173 van Asselt, M. (2012) Foresight in action: developing policy-oriented scenarios. Published by Routledge, London Rhisiart M, Miller R, Brooks S (2015) Learning to use the future: developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes. Tech Forecast Soc Chang 101:124–133 Waage, M. (2010) Nonstationarity water planning methods. In workshop on nonstationarity, hydrologic frequency analysis, and water management Galloway, G.E. (2011) If stationarity is dead, What do we do now? Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):563–570. Bood R, Postma T (1997) Strategic learning with scenarios. Eur Manag J 15(6):633–647 Makropoulos CK, Memon FA, Shirley-Smith C, Butler D (2008) Futures: an exploration of scenarios for sustainable urban water management. Water Policy 10(4):345–373 McCarl BA, Villavicencio X, Wu X (2008) Climate change and future analysis: is stationarity dying? Am J Agric Econ 90(5):1241–1247 Milly P, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319(5863):573–574 Brown RR, Farrelly MA (2009) Delivering sustainable urban water management: a review of the hurdles we face. Water Sci Technol 59(5):839–846 Marlow D, Beale D, Burn S (2010) A pathway to a more sustainable water sector: sustainability-based asset management. Water Sci Technol 61(5):1245 Ashley, R. and Tait, S. (2012) Use of scenarios in PREPARED, in deliverable D6.2.7. PREPARED project, funded by the 7th European Framework van der Zouwen M, Segrave A, Büscher C, Monteiro A J, Galvão A, Ramoa A, Hochstrat R (2015) Guidelines for urban water strategic planning: inspiration from theories and best practices, in TRUST deliverable D12.1c Blackmore J, Wang X, Wang C-H, Yum K-K, Diaper C, Zhou M, McGregor G (2008) Risk assessment and management: a guide for integrated urban water systems. eWater Technical Report. eWater Cooperative Research Centre, Canberra Hallegatte S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob Environ Chang 19(2):240–247 van't Klooster SA, van Asselt BA (2006) Practising the scenario-axes technique. Futures 38(1):15–30 Behzadian K, Morley M, Vitorino D, Coelho S, Ugarelli R, Kapelan Z (2015) Final report with DSS methodology, software and case study from a pilot city. Deliverable 54.3, in TRUST: TRansitions to the Urban Water Services of Tomorrow. European Union Seventh Framework Program Miller KD, Waller HG (2003) Scenarios, real options and integrated risk management. Long Range Plan 36(1):93–107 Lempert R, Popper S, Bankes S (2002) Confronting surprise. Soc Sci Comput Rev 20(4):420–440 Bishop P, Hines A, Collins T (2007) The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight 9(1):5–25 Schoemaker PJ (1995) Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Manag Rev 36(2):25 Voros J (2003) A generic foresight process framework. Foresight 5(3):10–21 Herz RK (2002) Software for strategic network rehabilitation and investment planning. International conference. Computer Aided Rehabilitation of Water Networks CARE-W. Dresden, Germany, 65–84 Meissner P, Wulf T (2013) Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: its impact on biases and decision quality. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 80(4):801–814 Duinker PN, Greig LA (2007) Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: improving explorations of the future. Environmen Impact Assess Rev 27(3):206–219 Varum CA, Melo C (2010) Directions in scenario planning literature—a review of the past decades. Futures 42(4):355–369 Amer M, Daim TU, Jetter A (2013) A review of scenario planning. Futures 46:23–40 Börjeson L, Höjer M, Dreborg K-H, Ekvall T, Finnveden G (2006) Scenario types and techniques: towards a user’s guide. Futures 38(7):723–739 Sedlak DL (2014) 2014 Clarke Prize Lecture: Delivering the Fourth WaterRevolution. NWRI Clarke Prize Conference. Huntington Beach California McDonald RI (2008) Global urbanization: can ecologists identify a sustainable way forward? Front Ecol Environ 6(2):99–104 Varis O, Somlyódy L (1997) Global urbanization and urban water: can sustainability be afforded? Water Sci Technol 35(9):21–32 Herz R, Lipkow A (2003) Strategic water network rehabilitation planning. Water Sci Technol Water Supply 3(1–2):35–42 ISO (2009) Risk management—principles and guidelines, in ISO 31000:2009. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva Rausand M (2013) Risk assessment: theory, methods, and applications. Volume 115. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ugarelli R, Røstum J (2012) Risks and interdependencies in critical infrastructures—a guideline for analysis. In: Hokstad P, Bower UI, Vatn J (eds) Integrated urban water system. Springer, London Ugarelli, R., Ceu Almeida, M., Behzadian, K., Liserra, T., Smeets, P., Kapelan, Z. and Sægrov, S. (2014) Sustainability risk based assessment of integrated urban water system. In 11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, HIC Hanssen-Bauer I, Førland EJ, Haddeland I, Hisdal H, Mayer S, Nesje A, Nilsen JEØ, Sandven S, Sandø AB, and Sorteberg A (2015) Klima i Norge 2100 Kunnskapsgrunnlag for klimatilpasning oppdatert i 2015, in NCCS report, NCCS. Miljødirektoratet, Oslo, 203 Ugarelli R, Leitão JP, do Céu Almeida M, and Bruaset S (2010) Overview of climate change effects which may impact the urban water cycle - D2.2.1, in European Union Seventh Framework Program. European Union Simonsen AB (2016) A qualitative and quantitative assessment of the long-term hydraulic reliability of Norwegian water distribution network. Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim