Using Twitter to Predict the Stock Market

Ali K, Pazzani M (1992) Reducing the small disjuncts problem by learning probabilistic concept descriptions. In: Petsche T, Judd S, Hanson S (eds) Computational learning theory and natural learning systems, vol 3. MIT Press, Cambridge

Antweiler W, Frank MZ (2004) Is all that talk just noise? The information content of Internet stock message boards. J Financ 59(3):1259–1294

Avery C, Chevalier J, Zeckhauser R (2009) The ‘CAPS’ prediction system and stock market returns. Working Paper, Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge

Baker M, Stein J (2004) Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator. J Financ Mark 7(3):271–299

Baker M, Wurgler J (2007) Investor sentiment in the stock market. J Econ Perspect 21(2):129–151

Bakshy E, Hofman JM, Mason WA, Watts DJ (2011) Everyone’s an influencer: quantifying influence on Twitter. In: Proceedings 4th ACM international conference web search data, pp 65–74

Bell NJ, Schoenrock CJ, O’Neal KK (2000) Self-monitoring and the propensity for risk. Eur J Personal 14(2):107–119

Benedict R (1934) Patterns of culture. Houghton Mifflin, Boston

Biemann C, Bordag S, Heyer G, Quasthoff U, Wolff C (2004) Language independent methods for compiling monolingual lexical data. In: Proceedings CIcLING, LNCS 2945, pp 217–228

Bifet A, Frank E (2010) Sentiment knowledge discovery in Twitter streaming data. Discov Sci 6332:1–15

Black F (1986) Noise. J Financ 41(3):529–543

Bollen J, Mao H, Zeng X (2010) Twitter mood predicts the stock market. J Comput Sci 2(1):1–8

Bono JE, Ilies R (2006) Charisma, positive emotions and mood contagion. Leadersh Q 17:317–334

Boucher JD (1979) Culture and emotion. In: Marsella AJ, Tharp R, Ciborowski T (eds) Perspectives on cross-cultural psychology. Academic Press, New York, pp 159–178

Boucher J, Osgood CE (1969) The pollyanna hypothesis. J Verb Learn Verb Behav 8(1):1–8

Boyd D, Golder S, Lotan G (2010) Tweet, tweet, retweet: conversational aspects of retweeting on twitter. In: Proceedings of the 43rd Hawaii international conference on social systems (HICSS)

Brown GW, Cliff MT (2005) Investor sentiment and asset valuation. J Bus 78(2):405–440

Brown R, Gilman A (1960) The pronouns of power and solidarity. In: Sebeok T (ed) Style in language. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 253–276

Brown P, Keim DB, Kleidon AW, Marsh TA (1983) Stock return seasonalities and the tax-loss selling hypothesis: analysis of the arguments and Australian evidence. J Financ Econ 12(1):105–112

Carton S, Jouvent R, Bungener C, Widlöcher D (1992) Sensation seeking and depressive mood. Personal Individ Differ 13(7):843–849

Cha M, Haddadi H, Benevenuto F, Gummadi KP (2010) Measuring user influence in Twitter: the million follower fallacy. In: Proceedings of the 4th international aaai conference on weblogs and social media

Chan K, Hameed A, Tong W (2000) Profitability of momentum strategies in the international equity markets. J Financ Quant Anal 35(2):153–172

Chang S-C, Chen S-S, Chou RK, Lin Y-H (2008) Weather and intraday patterns in stock returns and trading activity. J Bank Financ 32:1754–1756

Chang S-C, Chen S-S, Chou RK, Lin YH (2012) Local sports sentiment and returns of locally headquartered stocks: a firm-level analysis. J Empir Financ 19(3):309–318

Chen G, Firth M, Rui OM (2001) The dynamic relation between stock returns, trading volume, and volatility. Financ Rev 36(3):153–174

Chevalier JA, Mayzlin D (2006) The effect of word of mouth on sales: online book reviews. J Mark Res 43(3):345–354

Chintagunta PK, Gopinath S, Venkataraman S (2010) The effects of online user reviews on movie box office performance: accounting for sequential rollout and aggregation across local markets. Mark Sci 29(5):944–957

Chordia T, Swaminathan B (2000) Trading volume and cross-autocorrelations in stock returns. J Financ 55(2):915–935

Chou KL, Lee T, Ho AH (2007) Does mood state change risk taking tendency in older adults? Psychol Aging 22(2):310

Conover MD, Gonçalves B, Ratkiewicz J, Flammini A, Menczer F (2011) Predicting the political alignment of twitter users. In: Proceedings of the international conference social computing

Coval JD, Moskowitz TJ (1999) Home bias at home: local equity preference in domestic portfolios. J Financ 54(6):2045–2073

Coviello L, Sohn Y, Kramer AD, Marlow C, Franceschetti M, Christakis NA, Fowler JH (2014) Detecting emotional contagion in massive social networks. PLoS One 9(3):e90315

D’Onfro J (2013) Twitter admits 5 of its ‘users’ are fake. http://www.businessinsider.com/5-of-twitter-monthly-active-users-are-fake-2013-10 . Accessed 22 June 2014

Dalbert C (1992) Subjektives Wohlbefinden junger Erwachsener: theoretische und empirische Analysen der Struktur und Stabilität. Zeitschrift für Differentielle und Diagnostische Psychologie 13:207–220

Daniel K, Hirshleifer D, Teoh SH (2002) Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications. J Monet Econ 49:139–209

Das SR, Chen MY (2007) Yahoo! for Amazon: sentiment extraction from small talk on the web. Manag Sci 53(9):1375–1388

De Long JB, Shleifer A, Summers LH, Waldmann RJ (1990) Positive feedback investment strategies and destabilizing rational speculation. J Financ 45(2):379–395

Dellarocas C, Zhang X, Awad NF (2007) Exploring the value of online product reviews in forecasting sales: the case of motion pictures. J Interact Mark 21(4):23–45

Dichev ID, Janes TD (2003) Lunar cycle effects in stock returns. J Priv Equity 6(4):8–29

Edmans A, Garcia D, Norli Ø (2007) Sports sentiment and stock returns. J Financ 62(4):1967–1998

Eisenberg AE, Baron J, Seligman ME (1998) Individual differences in risk aversion and anxiety. Psychol Bull 87:245–251

Fama EF (1970) Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. J Financ 25(2):383–417

Forgas JP (1995) Mood and judgment: the affect infusion model (AIM). Psychol Bull 117(1):39–66

Fowler JH, Christakis NA (2008) Dynamic spread of happiness in a large social network: longitudinal analysis over 20 years in the Framingham Heart Study. BMJ 337:a2338

French KR, Poterba JM (1991) Investor diversification and international equity markets. Am Econ Rev 81(2):222–226

French KR, Schwert GW, Stambaugh RF (1987) Expected stock returns and volatility. J Financ Econ 19(1):3–29

Gallant AR, Rossi PE, Tauchen G (1992) Stock prices and volume. Rev Financ Stud 5(2):199–242

Gehm TL, Scherer KR (1988) Factors determining the dimensions of subjective emotional space. In: Scherer KR (ed) Facets of emotion: recent research. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, pp 99–113

Ghosh R, Lerman K (2011) A framework for quantitative analysis of cascades on networks. In: Proceedings of the 4th ACM international conference web search data mining

Gilbert E, Karahalios K (2010) Widespread worry and the stock market. In: Proceedings of the 4th international AAAI conference weblogs social media

Grahl J, Hinz O, Rothlauf F (2014) What is the value of a “Like”? – experimental evidence for the influence of popularity signals on shopping behavior. Working Paper

Granovetter MS (1973) The strength of weak ties. Am J Sociol 78(6):1360–1380

Grinblatt M, Keloharju M (2001) How distance, language, and culture influence stockholdings and trades. J Financ 56(3):1053–1073

Grinblatt M, Titman S, Wermers R (1995) Momentum investment strategies, portfolio performance, and herding: a study of mutual fund behavior. Am Econ Rev 85(5):1088–1105

Guillory J, Spiegel J, Drislane M, Weiss B, Donner W, Hancock J (2011) Upset now?: emotion contagion in distributed groups. In: Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference human factors computing system

Hancock JT, Gee K, Ciaccio K, Lin JMH (2008) I’m sad you’re sad: emotional contagion in CMC. In: Proceedings of the 2008 ACM conference computing supported cooperative work

Hatfield E, Cacioppo JT (1994) Emotional contagion. University Press, Cambridge

Heimbach I, Hinz O (2012) How smartphone apps can help predicting music sales. In: Proceedings of the 20th European conference information system (ECIS), Barcelona, Spain

Hill S, Ready-Campbell N (2011) Expert stock picker: the wisdom of (experts in) crowds. Int J Electron Commer 15(3):73–102

Hinz O, Spann M (2008) The impact of information diffusion on bidding behavior in secret reserve price auctions. Inf Syst Res 19(3):351–368

Hinz O, Skiera B, Barrot C, Becker J (2011) Seeding strategies for viral marketing: an empirical comparison. J Mark 75(6):55–71

Hirshleifer D, Shumway T (2003) Good day sunshine: stock returns and the weather. J Financ 58(3):1009–1032

Holte RC, Acker L, Porter BW (1989) Concept learning and the problem of small disjuncts. In: Proceedings of the 11th international joint conference Artificial Intelligence, Detroit, Michigan

Huberman G (2001) Familiarity breeds investment. Rev Financ Stud 14(3):659–680

Jaffe JF, Westerfield R, Ma C (1989) A twist on the Monday effect in stock prices: evidence from the US and foreign stock markets. J Bank Financ 13(4–5):641–650

Jegadeesh N, Titman S (1993) Returns to buying winners and selling losers: implications for stock market efficiency. J Financ 48(1):65–91

Johnson EJ, Tversky A (1983) Affect, generalization, and the perception of risk. J Pers Soc Psychol 45:20–31

Kamstra MJ, Kramer LA, Levi MD (2000) Losing sleep at the market: the daylight saving anomaly. Am Econ Rev 90(4):1005–1011

Kamstra MJ, Kramer LA, Levi MD (2003) Winter blues: a SAD stock market cycle. Am Econ Rev 93(1):324–343

Kaplan AM, Haenlein M (2010) Users of the world, unite! The challenges and opportunities of social media. Bus Horiz 59:59–68

Karabulut Y (2011) Can Facebook predict stock market activity? Working Paper, University of Frankfurt, Germany

Karpoff JM (1987) The relation between price changes and trading volume: a survey. J Financ Quant Anal 22(1):109–126

Kempe D, Kleinberg J, Tardos E (2003) Maximizing the spread of influence through a social network. In: Proceedings of the 9th ACM SIGKDD international conference knowledge discovery data mining

Kramer AD (2012) The spread of emotion via facebook. In: Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference human factors computer system, pp 767–770

Krämer W, Runde R (1997) Stocks and the weather: an exercise in data mining or yet another capital market anomaly? Empir Econ 22:637–641

Kramer AD, Guillory JE, Hancock JT (2014) Experimental evidence of massive-scale emotional contagion through social networks. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

Kwak H, Lee C, Park H, Moon S (2010) What is Twitter, a social network or a news media? In: Proceedings of the 19th international conference world wide web

Leetaru KH, Wang S, Cao G, Padmanabhan A, Shook E (2013) Mapping the global Twitter heartbeat: the geography of Twitter. First Monday 18(5). http://firstmonday.org/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/4366/3654 . Accessed 22 June 2014

Lemmon M, Portniaguina E (2006) Consumer confidence and asset prices: some empirical evidence. Rev Financ Stud 19(4):1499–1529

Lerman K, Ghosh R, Surachawala T (2012) Social contagion: an empirical study of information spread on Digg and Twitter follower graphs. Working Paper

Leskovec J, McGlohon M, Faloutsos C, Glance N, Hurst M (2007) Cascading behavior in large blog graphs. In: Proceedings of the 7th SIAM international conference data mining (SDM)

Levy T, Yagil J (2011) Air pollution and stock returns in the US. J Econ Psychol 32(3):374–383

Lewis MP (2009) Ethnologue: languages of the world. SIL International, Dallas

Lo AW, Repin DV (2002) The psychophysiology of real-time financial risk processing. J Cogn Neurosci 14(3):323–339

Loewenstein GF, Weber EU, Hsee CK, Welch N (2001) Risk as feelings. Psycholl Bull 127(2):267–286

McNair DM, Lorr M, Droppleman LF (1971) Profile of mood states. Educational and Industrial Testing Service, San Diego

Mitchel RLC, Philipps LH (2007) The psychological, neurochemical and functional neuroanatomical mediators of the effects of positive and negative mood on executive functions. Neuropsychol 45:617–629

Nann S, Krauss J, Schoder D (2013) Predictive analytics on public data – the case of stock markets. In: Proceedings of the 21st European conference information system

Neumann R, Strack F (2000) “Mood contagion”: the automatic transfer of mood between persons. J Pers Soc Psychol 79(2):211–223

Nofsinger JR (2005) Social mood and financial economics. J Behav Financ 6(3):144–160

Oh C, Sheng O (2011) Investigating predictive power of stock micro blog sentiment in forecasting future stock price directional movement. In: Proceedings of the 32nd international conference information system

Pavlenko A (2008) Emotion and emotion-laden words in the bilingual lexicon. Biling Lang Cogn 11(2):147–164

Qiu L, Welch I (2004) Investor sentiment measures. National Bureau of Economic Research

Rao T, Srivastava S (2012) Using Twitter sentiments and search volumes index to predict oil, gold, forex and markets indices. Working Paper

Ruiz EJ, Hristidis V, Castillo C, Gionis A, Jaimes A (2012) Correlating financial time series with micro-blogging activity. Working Paper

Saunders EM (1993) Stock prices and Wall Street weather. Am Econ Rev 83(5):1337–1345

Schwarz N (1990) Feelings as information: Informational and motivational functions of affective states. In: Sorrentino RM, Higgins ET (eds) Handbook of motivation and cognition: foundations of social behavior, vol 2. Guilford, New York, pp 527–561

Semiocast (2013) Half of messages on Twitter are not in English, Japanese is the second most used language. Press release. http://semiocast.com/downloads/Semiocast_Half_of_messages_on_Twitter_are_not_in_English_20100224.pdf . Accessed 22 June 2014

Sharpe W (1966) Mutual fund performance. J Bus 39(1):119–138

Shiller RJ (2003) From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. J Econ Perspect 17(1):83–104

Sprenger TO, Tumasjan A, Sandner PG, Welpe IM (2013) Tweets and trades: the information content of stock microblogs. Eur Financ Manag 20(5):926–957

Sy T, Cote S, Saavedra R (2005) The contagious leader: impact of the leader’s mood on the mood of group members, group affective tone, and group processes. J Appl Psychol 90:295–305

Thaler RH (1987) The January effect. J Econ Perspect 1(1):197–201

Tirunillai S, Tellis GJ (2012) Does chatter really matter? Dynamics of user-generated content and stock performance. Mark Sci 31(2):198–215

Trombley MA (1997) Stock prices and Wall Street weather: additional evidence. Q J Bus Econ 36(3):11–21

Tseng KC (2006) Behavioral finance, bounded rationality, neuro-finance, and traditional finance. Invest Manag Financ Innov 3(4):7–18

Tversky A, Kahneman D (1991) Loss aversion in riskless choice: a reference-dependent model. Q J Econ 106(4):1039–1061

Van Eck M, Nicolson NA, Berkhof J (1998) Effects of stressful daily events on mood states: relationship to global perceived stress. J Pers Soc Psychol 75(6):1572–1585

Vittengl JR, Holt CS (1998) A time-series diary study of mood and social interaction. Motiv Emot 22(3):255–275

Wann D, Dolan T, Mcgeorge K, Allison J (1994) Relationships between spectator identification and spectators’ perceptions of influence, spectators’ emotions, and competition outcome. J Sport Exerc Psychol 16(4):347–364

Weinberg P, Gottwald W (1982) Impulsive consumer buying as a result of emotions. J Bus Res 10(1):43–57

Whaley RE (2000) The investor fear gauge. J Portf Manag 26(3):12–17

Wong A, Carducci BJ (1991) Sensation seeking and financial risk taking in everyday money matters. J Bus Psychol 5(4):525–530

Worthington A (2009) An empirical note on weather effects in the Australian stock market. Econ Pap J Appl Econ Policy 28(2):148–154

Wright WF, Bower GH (1992) Mood effects on subjective probability assessment. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 52:276–291

Ye S, Wu SF (2010) Measuring message propagation and social influence on twitter.com. Soc Inform 6430:216–231

Yuen KS, Lee T (2003) Could mood state affect risk-taking decisions? J Affect Disord 75(1):11–18

Zhang X, Fuehres H, Gloor P (2010) Predicting stock market indicators through Twitter – “I hope it is not as bad as I fear”. In: Proceedings collaborative innovations networks conference, Savannah, GA

Zhu F, Zhang X (2010) Impact of online consumer reviews on sales: the moderating role of product and consumer characteristics. J Mark 74(2):133–148

Zuckerman M (1984) Sensation seeking: a comparative approach to a human trait. Behav Brain Sci 7(3):413–471