Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China
Tóm tắt
Abstract. The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr−1 in the major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Baik, J. J., Kim, Y. H., Kim, J. J., and Han, J. Y.: Effect of boundary-layer stability on urban heat island induced circulation, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 89, 73–81, 2007.
Bauer, S. E. and Menon, S.: Aerosol direct, indirect, semidirect, and surface albedo effects from sector contributions based on the IPCC AR5 emissions for preindustrial and present-day conditions, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D01206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016816, 2012.
Bornstein, R. and Lin, Q.: Urban heat islands and summertime convective thunderstorms in Atlanta: Three cases studies, Atmos. Environ., 34, 507–516, 2000.
Braham, R. R.: Comments on “Urban, topographic and diurnal effects on rainfall in the St. Louis region”, J. Appl. Meteorol., 18, 371–374, 1979.
Charlson, R. J., Schwarts, S. E., Hales, J. M., Cess, R. D., Coakley, J. A., Hansen, J. E., and Hofmann, D. J.: Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols, Science, 255, 423–430, 1992.
Che, H. Z., Shi, G. Y., Zhang, X. Y., Arimoto, R., Zhao, J. Q., Xu, L., Wang, B., and Chen, Z. H.: Analysis of 40 years of solar radiation data from China, 1961–2000, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L06803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL022322, 2005.
Chen, F. and Dudhia, J.: Coupling an advanced land surface–hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 569–585, 2001.
Chen, F., Mitchell, K., Schaake, J., Xue. Y. K., Pan, H. L., Koren, V., Duan, Q. Y., Ek, M., and Betts, A.: Modeling of land surface evaporation by four schemes and comparison with FIFE observations, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 7251–7268, 1996.
Chen, F., Kusaka, H., Bornstein, R., Ching, J., Grimmond, C. S. B., Grossman-Clarke, S., Loridan, T., Manning, K. W., Martilli, A., Miao, S. G., Sailor, D., Salamanca, F. P., Taha, H., Tewari, M., Wang, X. M., Wyszogrodzki, A. A., and Zhang, C. L.: The integrated WRF/urban modeling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 273–288, 2001.
Coakley, J. A., Bernstein, R. L., and Durkee, P. A.: Effect of ship-track effluents on cloud reflectivity, Science, 273, 1020–1022, 1987.
Craig, K. and Bornstein, R.: MM5 simulation of urban induced convective precipitation over Atlanta, Preprints, Fourth Conf. on the Urban Environment, Norfolk, VA, Am. Meteorol. Soc., 5–6, 2002.
Dentener, F., Kinne, S., Bond, T., Boucher, O., Cofala, J., Generoso, S., Ginoux, P., Gong, S., Hoelzemann, J. J., Ito, A., Marelli, L., Penner, J. E., Putaud, J.-P., Textor, C., Schulz, M., van der Werf, G. R., and Wilson, J.: Emissions of primary aerosol and precursor gases in the years 2000 and 1750 prescribed data-sets for AeroCom, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4321–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-4321-2006, 2006.
Du, Y., Xie, Z. Q., Zeng, Y., Shi, Y. F., and Wu, J. G.: Impact of urban expansion on regional temperature change in the Yangtze River Delta, J. Geophys. Sci., 17, 387–398, 2006.
Fast, J. D., Gustafson Jr., W. I., Easter, R. C., Zaveri, R. A., Barnard, J. C., Chapman, E. G., Grell, G. A., and Pechham, S. E.: Evolution of ozone, particulates, and aerosol direct forcing in an urban area using a new fully-coupled meteorology, chemistry, and aerosol model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D21305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006721, 2006.
Fan, J., Zhang, R., Li, G., Tao, W., and Li, X.: Simulations of cumulus clouds using a spectral microphysics cloud resolving model, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D04201, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3651.1, 2007.
Fan, J., Leung, L. R., Rosenfeld, D., Chen, Q., Li, Z., Zhang, J., and Yan, H.: Microphysical Effects Determine Macrophysical Response for Aerosol Impacts on Deep Convective Clouds, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, E4581–E4590, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1316830110, 2013.
Fan, J., Rosenfeld, D., Yang, Y., Zhao, C., Leung, Y. R., and Li, Z.: Substantial Contribution of Anthropogenic Air Pollution to Catastrophic Floods in Southwest China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6066–6075, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064479, 2015.
Feingold, G., Koren, I., Wang, H., Xue, H., and Brewer, W.: Precipitation-generated oscillations in open cellular cloud fields, Nature, 466, 849–852, 2010.
Grell, G. A., Peckham, S. E., Schmitz, R., Mckeen, S. A., Frost, G., Skamarock, W. C., and Eder, B.: Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model, Atmos. Environ., 39, 6957–6975, 2005.
Gustafson, W. I., Chapman, E. G., Ghan, S. J., Easter, R. C., and Fast, J. D.: Impact on modeled cloud characteristics due to simplified treatment of uniform cloud condensation nuclei during NEAQS 2004, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030021, 2007.
Guo, X., Fu, D., and Wang, J.: Mesoscale convective precipitation system modified by urbanization in Beijing city, Atmos. Res., 82, 112–126, 2006.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., and Ruedy, R.: Radiative Forcing and Climate Response, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 6831–6864, 1997.
Hjemfelt, M. R.: Numerical simulation of the effects of St. Louis on mesoscale boundary layer airflow and vertical motion: Simulations of urban vs. non-urban effects, J. Appl. Meteorol., 21, 1239–1257, 1982.
Hu, Y., Ban, Y., Zhang, Q., and Liu, J.: The trajectory of urbanization process in the Yangtze River Delta during 1990 to 2005, 7th Urban Remote Sensing Joint Event, 20–22 May 2009, Shanghai, https://doi.org/10.1109/URS.2009.5137536, 2009.
Huff, F. A. and Changnon Jr., S. A.: Climatological assessment of urban effects on precipitation at St. Louis, J. Appl. Meteorol., 11, 823–842, 1972.
Iacono, M., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A., and Collins, W. D.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008.
Inoue, T. and Kimura, F.: Urban effects on low-level clouds around the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer days, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L05103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018908, 2004.
Janjić, Z. I.: Nonsingular Implementation of the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 Scheme in the NCEP Meso Model, Office Note No. 437, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, 61 pp., 2001.
Jauregui, E., Godinez, L., and Cruz, F.: Aspects of Heat-Island Development in Guadalajara, Mexico, Atmos. Environ. B-Urb., 26, 391–396, 1992.
Jiang, Y., Liu, X., and Yang, X. Q.: A numerical study of the effect of different aerosol types on East Asian summer clouds and precipitation, Atmos. Environ., 70, 51–63, 2013.
Kaufmann, R. K., Seto, K. C., Schneider, A., Liu, Z., Zhou, L., and Wang, W.: Climate response to rapid urban growth: evidence of a human-induced precipitation deficit, J. Climate, 20, 2299–2306, 2007.
Khain, A. P.: Notes on state-of-the-art investigations of aerosol effects on precipitation: a critical review, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 015004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/1/015004, 2009.
Koren, I., Kaufman, Y. J., Remer, L. A., and Martins, J. V.: Measurement of the effect of Amazon smoke on inhibition of cloud formation, Science, 303, 1342–1345, 2004.
Kusaka, H., Kikegawa, Y., and Kimura, F.: A simple single layer urban canopy model for atmospheric models: comparison with multi-layer and slab models, Bound.-Lay. Meteor., 101, 329–358, 2001.
Landsberg, H. E.: The Urban Climate, Academic Press, Londen, UK, 1981.
Lei, M., Niyogi, D., Kishtawal, C., Pielke Sr., R. A., Beltrán-Przekurat, A., Nobis, T. E., and Vaidya, S. S.: Effect of explicit urban land surface representation on the simulation of the 26 July 2005 heavy rain event over Mumbai, India, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5975–5995, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-5975-2008, 2008.
Lu, Z., Zhang, Q., and Streets, D. G.: Sulfur dioxide and primary carbonaceous aerosol emissions in China and India, 1996–2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 9839–9864, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-9839-2011, 2011.
Masterson, J. and Richardson F. A.: Humidex. A method of quantifying human discomfort due to excessive heat and humidity, Environment Canada, Downsview, 1979.
McFarquhar, G. M. and Wang, H.: Effects of aerosols on trade wind cumuli over the Indian Ocean: Model simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 821–843, 2006.
Mellor, G. L. and Yamada, T.: Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems, Rev. Geophys., 20, 851–875, 1982.
Miao, S. G., Chen, F., Li, Q. C., and Fan, S. Y.: Impacts of urban processes and urbanization on summer precipitation: a case study of heavy rainfall in Beijing on 1 August 2006, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 50, 806–825, 2010.
Monin, A. S. and Obukhov, A. M.: Basic laws of turbulent mixing in the surface layer of the atmosphere, Contributions of the Geophysical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, 24, 151, 163–187, 1954.
Morrison, H., Thompson, G., and Tatarskii, V.: Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line: Comparison of one-and two-moment schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 991–1007, 2009.
Oke, T. R.: Boundary Layer Climates, 2nd Edn., Methuen Co., 435 pp., 1987.
Oleson, K. W., Bonan, G. B., Feddema, J., and Vertensten, M.: An urban parameterization for a global climate model. Part II: Sensitivity to input parameters and the simulated urban heat island in offline simulations, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 47, 1061–1076, 2008.
Qian, Y., Kaiser, D. P., Leung, L. R., and Xu, M.: More frequent cloud-free sky and less surface solar radiation in China from 1955 to 2000, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01812, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024586, 2006.
Qian, Y., Wang, W., Leung, L. R., and Kaiser, D. P.: Variability of solar radiation under cloud-free skies in China: The role of aerosols, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028800, 2007.
Qian, Y., Gong, D., Fan, J., Leung, L. R., Bennartz, R., Chen, D., and Wang, W.: Heavy pollution suppresses light rain in China: Observations and modeling, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00K02, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011575, 2009.
Qian, Y., Gustafson Jr., W. I., and Fast, J. D.: An investigation of the sub-grid variability of trace gases and aerosols for global climate modeling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 6917–6946, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-6917-2010, 2010.
Qian, Y., Teppei, J., Yasunari, J., Doherty, S. J., Flanner, M. G., Lau, W. K. M., Ming, J., Wang, H. L., Wang, M., Warren, S. G., and Zhang, R. D.: Light-absorbing particles in snow and ice: Measurement and modeling of climatic and hydrological impact, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 32, 64–91, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-0010-0, 2015.
Ren, G., Zhou, Y., Chu, Z., Zhou, J., Zhang, A., Guo, J., and Liu, X.: Urbanization Effects on Observed Surface Air Temperature Trends in North China, J. Climate, 21, 1333–1348, 2008.
Rosenfeld, D.: Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution, Science, 287, 1793–1796, 2000.
Rosenfeld, D., Lohmann, U., Raga, G. B., O'Dowd, C. D., Kulmala, M., Fuzzi, S., Reissell, A., and Andreae, M. O.: Flood or drought: How do aerosols affect precipitation?, Science, 321, 1309–1313, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160606, 2008.
Rozoff, C., Cotton, W. R., and Adegoke, J. O.: Simulation of St. Louis, Missouri, land use impacts on thunderstorms, J. Appl. Meteorol., 42, 716–738, 2003.
Schell, B., Ackermann, I. J., Hass, H., Binkowski, F. S., and Ebel, A.: Modeling the formation of secondary organic aerosol within a comprehensive air quality modeling system, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 28275–28293, 2001.
Sen Roy, S. and Yuan, F.: Trends in extreme temperatures in relation to urbanization in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minnesota, J. Appl. Meteorol., 48, 669–679, 2009.
Shepherd, J. M.: A review of current investigations of urban-induced rainfall and recommendations for the future, Earth Interact., 9, 1–27, 2005.
Shepherd, J. M. and Burian, S. J.: Detection of urban-induced rainfall anomalies in a major coastal city, Earth Interact., 7, 1–17, 2003.
Shepherd, J. M., Carter, M., Manyin, M., Messen, D., and Burian, S.: The impact of urbanization on current and future coastal precipitation: a case study for Houston, Environ. Plan., 37, 284–304, 2010.
Skamarock, W. C. and Klemp, J. B.: A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications, J. Comput. Phys., 227, 3465–3485, 2008.
Stone, B.: The city and the coming climate: Climate change in the places we live, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2012.
Stockwell, W. R., Middleton, P., Chang, J. S., and Tang, X.: The second generation regional acid deposition model chemicalmechanism for regional air quality modeling, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 16343–16367, 1990.
Storer R. L. and Van den Heever, S. C.: Microphysical processes evident in aerosol forcing of tropical deep convective clouds, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 430–446, 2013.
Tan, J., Kalkstein, L. S., Huang, J., Lin, S., Yin, H., and Shao, D.: An operational heat/health warning system in Shanghai, Int. J. Biometeorol., 48, 157–162, 2004.
Tao, W. K., Chen, J. P., Li, Z., Wang, C., and Zhang, C.: Impact of aerosols on convective clouds and precipitation, Rev. Geophys., 50, RG2001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011RG000369, 2012.
Tewari, M., Chen, F., Kusaka, H., and Miao, S.: Coupled WRF/Unified Noah/urban-canopy modeling system, NCAR WRF Documentation, Boulder, NCAR, 1–20, 2007.
Wan, H. C., Zhong, Z., Yang, X. Q., and Li, X. Q.: Impact of city belt in Yangtze River Delta in China on a precipitation process in summer: A case study, Atmos. Res., 125–126, 63–75, 2013.
Wang, H. and Feingold, G.: Modeling mesoscale cellular structures and drizzle in marine stratocumulus. Part II: The Microphysics and Dynamics of the Boundary Region between Open and Closed Cells, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3257–3275, 2009.
Wang, H., Skamarock, W. C., and Feingold, G.: Evaluation of scalar advection schemes in the Advanced Research WRF model using large-eddy simulations of aerosol–cloud interactions, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 2547–2558, 2009.
Wang, X. Q. and Gong, Y. B.: The impact of an urban dry island on the summer heat wave and sultry weather in Beijing City, Chinese Sci. Bull., 55, 1657–1661, 2010.
Wang, Y., Zhuang, G., Zhang, X., Huang, K., Xu, C., Tang, A., Chen, J., and An, Z.: The ion chemistry, seasonal cycle, and sources of PM2. 5 and TSP aerosol in Shanghai, Atmos. Environ., 40, 2935–2952, 2006.
Wang, K. C., Wang, J., Wang, P., Sparrow, M., Yang, J., and Chen, H.: Influences of urbanization on surface characteristics as derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer: A case study for the Beijing metropolitan area, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D22S06, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007997, 2007.
Wang, X. M., Sun, X. G., Tang, J. P., and Yang, X. Q.: Urbanization-induced regional warming in Yangtze River Delta: potential role of anthropogenic heat release, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 4417–4430, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4296, 2015.
Wienert, U. and Kuttler, W.: The dependence of the urban heat island intensity on latitude – a statistical approach, Meteorol. Z., 14, 677–686, 2005.
Wu, K. and Yang, X. Q.: Urbanization and heterogeneous surface warming in eastern China, Chinese Sci. Bull., 58, 1363–1373, 2013.
Yang, B., Zhang, Y. C., and Qian, Y.: Simulation of urban climate with high-resolution WRF model: A case study in Nanjing, China, Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 227–241, 2012.
Yang, X., Hou, Y., and Chen, B.: Observed surface warming induced by urbanization in east China, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D14113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015452, 2011.
Yu, H., Kaufman, Y. J., Chin, M., Feingold, G., Remer, L. A., Anderson, T. L., Balkanski, Y., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., Christopher, S., DeCola, P., Kahn, R., Koch, D., Loeb, N., Reddy, M. S., Schulz, M., Takemura, T., and Zhou, M.: A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 613–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-613-2006, 2006.
Zhang, N., Gao, Z., Wang, X., and Chen, Y.: Modeling the impact of urbanization on the local and regional climate in Yangtze River Delta, China, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 102, 331–342, 2010.
Zhang, Q., Hu, Y., and Liu, J.: The trajectories of urban land and industrial land in Shanghai over the past 30 years, IEEE Urban Remote Sensing Event, 2009 Joint, Shanghai, China, 1–7, 2009a.
Zhang, Q., Streets, D. G., Carmichael, G. R., He, K. B., Huo, H., Kannari, A., Klimont, Z., Park, I. S., Reddy, S., Fu, J. S., Chen, D., Duan, L., Lei, Y., Wang, L. T., and Yao, Z. L.: Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 5131–5153, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-5131-2009, 2009b.
Zhao, C., Tie, X., and Lin, Y.: A possible positive feedback of reduction of precipitation and increase in aerosols over eastern central China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L11814, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025959, 2006.
Zhao, C., Liu, X., Leung, L. R., Johnson, B., McFarlane, S. A., Gustafson Jr., W. I., Fast, J. D., and Easter, R.: The spatial distribution of mineral dust and its shortwave radiative forcing over North Africa: modeling sensitivities to dust emissions and aerosol size treatments, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 8821–8838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-8821-2010, 2010.
Zhao, C., Liu, X., Ruby Leung, L., and Hagos, S.: Radiative impact of mineral dust on monsoon precipitation variability over West Africa, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1879–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1879-2011, 2011.
Zhao, C., Leung, L. R., Easter, R., Hand, J., and Avise, J.: Characterization of speciated aerosol direct radiative forcing over California, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2372–2388, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018364, 2013a.
Zhao, C., Chen, S., Leung, L. R., Qian, Y., Kok, J. F., Zaveri, R. A., and Huang, J.: Uncertainty in modeling dust mass balance and radiative forcing from size parameterization, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10733–10753, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10733-2013, 2013b.
Zhong, S. and Yang, X. Q.: Ensemble simulations of the urban effect on a summer rainfall event in the Great Beijing Metropolitan Area, Atmos. Res., 153, 318–334, 2015a.
Zhong, S. and Yang, X. Q.: Mechanism of urbanization impact on a summer cold frontal rainfall process in the Great Beijing Metropolitan Area, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 54, 1234–1247, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0264.1, 2015b.