Nội dung được dịch bởi AI, chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo
Sự điều độ không được đáp ứng: Cam kết đáng tin cậy và sự đàn áp của nhà nước ở Ai Cập
Tóm tắt
Trong các tài khoản chiến lược về dân chủ hóa, những cam kết đáng tin cậy từ phe đối lập hình thành xem liệu những người nắm quyền có từ bỏ quyền lực hay không. Nhìn lại nghiên cứu của Kalyvas về Algeria và Bỉ, bài viết này giới thiệu bằng chứng từ Ai Cập cho thấy sự sẵn sàng cấu trúc của những người nắm quyền vẫn quan trọng như độ tin cậy của cam kết. Trong giai đoạn 1990–2008, độ tin cậy của các cam kết dân chủ từ phe đối lập Ai Cập đã được cải thiện theo những điểm mà Kalyvas đã chỉ ra. Không giống như người đồng cấp Algeria, phong trào Hồi giáo ở Ai Cập đã có thể "dập tắt những kẻ cực đoan" và, sau năm 1998, phát ra một thông điệp không đối kháng về sự tham gia bầu cử mà không có bạo lực của quân nhân. Sự cải thiện trong độ tin cậy của cam kết này không được phản hồi từ các nhân vật ưu tú Ai Cập, những người đã nhận được sự hỗ trợ từ phương Tây và một bộ máy đàn áp vững chắc. Những yếu tố tương tự đã cản trở phe đối lập Algeria và cho thấy rằng một đảng Hồi giáo có kỷ luật hơn, ít đối kháng hơn sẽ khó có khả năng gây ra một cuộc chuyển giao dân chủ. Sự chuyển giao có khả năng xảy ra nhất khi một phe đối lập có cam kết đáng tin cậy đối mặt với một tầng lớp ưu tú sẵn sàng thay đổi quyền lực. Yếu tố thứ hai giúp giải thích thành công của đảng Công giáo ở Bỉ và sự thất bại của các phong trào Hồi giáo tương đương ở Bắc Phi.
Từ khóa
#dân chủ hóa #cam kết đáng tin cậy #phe đối lập #đàn áp nhà nước #Ai Cập #phong trào Hồi giáoTài liệu tham khảo
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