Unpacking second-order elections theory: The effects of ideological extremity on voting in European elections

Electoral Studies - Tập 85 - Trang 102663 - 2023
Jakub Wondreys1
1Hannah-Arendt-Institute for Totalitarianism Studies at the TU Dresden, Dresden, Germany

Tài liệu tham khảo

Abedi, 2004 Akkerman, 2012, Comparing radical right parties in government: immigration and integration policies in nine countries (1996–2010), W. Eur. Polit., 35, 511, 10.1080/01402382.2012.665738 Akkerman, 2012, Radical right parties in office: incumbency records and the electoral cost of governing, Gov. Oppos., 47, 574, 10.1111/j.1477-7053.2012.01375.x 2016 Albertazzi, 2015 Allison, 2009 Bakker, 2020, Multidimensional incongruence, political disaffection, and support for anti-establishment parties, J. Eur. Publ. Pol., 2, 292, 10.1080/13501763.2019.1701534 Bolleyer, 2008, The organizational costs of public office, 17 2021 Carrubba, 2005, Explaining vote switching across first- and second-order elections: evidence from Europe, Comp. Polit. Stud., 38, 260, 10.1177/0010414004272693 Clark, 2009, Second‐order elections versus first‐order thinking: how voters perceive the representation process in a multi‐layered system of governance, J. Eur. Integrat., 31, 645, 10.1080/07036330903145906 Cotta, 1996, La crisi del governo di partito all’italiana, 11 Curtice, 1989, The 1989 European election: protest or green tide?, Elect. Stud., 8, 217, 10.1016/0261-3794(89)90002-4 De Lange, 2012, New alliances: why mainstream parties govern with radical right-wing populist parties, Polit. Stud., 60, 899, 10.1111/j.1467-9248.2012.00947.x De Vries, 2020 Döring, 2020 Duch, 2002, Strategic voting in post-communist democracy?, Br. J. Polit. Sci., 32, 63, 10.1017/S0007123402000030 Dunphy, 2011, The radical left in coalition government: towards a comparative measurement of success and failure, Party Polit., 17, 488, 10.1177/1354068811400524 Ehin, 2021, Still second-order? European elections in the era of populism, extremism, and euroscepticism, Politics, 41, 467, 10.1177/0263395720986026 Ferrara, 2004, Get your act together: party performance in European parliament elections, Eur. Union Polit., 5, 283, 10.1177/1465116504045154 Goodhart, 1970, Political economy, Polit. Stud., 18, 43, 10.1111/j.1467-9248.1970.tb00659.x Hainmueller, 2019, How much should we trust estimates from multiplicative interaction models? Simple tools to improve empirical practice, Polit. Anal., 27, 163, 10.1017/pan.2018.46 Heinisch, 2003, Success in opposition – failure in government: explaining the performance of right-wing populist parties in public office, W. Eur. Polit., 26, 91, 10.1080/01402380312331280608 Hernández, 2016, Turning your back on the EU. The role of Eurosceptic parties in the 2014 European Parliament elections, Elect. Stud., 44, 515, 10.1016/j.electstud.2016.04.013 Hix, 2007, Punishment or protest? Understanding European parliament elections, J. Polit., 69, 495, 10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00546.x Hix, 2011, Second-order effects plus pan-European political swings: an analysis of European parliament elections across time, Elect. Stud., 30, 4, 10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.017 Hobolt, 2012, Motivating the European voter: parties, issues and campaigns in European Parliament elections, Eur. J. Polit. Res., 51, 701, 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2012.02057.x Hobolt, 2016, Turning against the Union? The impact of the crisis on the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections, Elect. Stud., 44, 504, 10.1016/j.electstud.2016.05.006 Hutter, 2019, Politicizing Europe in times of crisis, J. Eur. Publ. Pol., 26, 996, 10.1080/13501763.2019.1619801 Ignazi, 1992, The silent counter revolution: hypotheses on the emergence of the extreme right-wing parties in Europe, Eur. J. Polit. Res., 22, 3, 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1992.tb00303.x Ignazi, 1996, The crisis of parties and the rise of new political parties, Party Polit., 2, 549, 10.1177/1354068896002004007 Ivaldi, 2012, The populist radical right in European elections 1979–2009, 15 Jolly, 2022, Chapel Hill Expert Survey trend file, 1999–2019, Elect. Stud., 75, 1, 10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102420 Julious, 2004, Using confidence intervals around individual means to assess statistical significance between two means, Pharmaceut. Stat., 3, 217, 10.1002/pst.126 Katz, 1995, Changing models of party organization and party democracy: the emergence of the cartel party, Party Polit., 1, 5, 10.1177/1354068895001001001 Kernell, 1977, Presidential popularity and negative voting: an alternative explanation of the midterm congressional decline of the president's party, Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 71, 44, 10.2307/1956953 Kirchheimer, 1966, The transformation of west European party systems, 177 Koepke, 2006, The second-order election model in an enlarged Europe, Eur. Union Polit., 7, 321, 10.1177/1465116506066259 Mair, 2013 March, 2011 Marsh, 1998, Testing the second-order election model after four European elections, Br. J. Polit. Sci., 28, 591, 10.1017/S000712349800026X Marsh, 2007, European Parliament elections and losses by governing parties, 51 Marsh, 1996, The foundations: unanswered questions from the study of European elections, 1979–1994, 11 McDonnell, 2011, Outsider parties in government in western Europe, Party Polit., 17, 443, 10.1177/1354068811400517 Meguid, 2008 Minkenberg, 2013, From pariah to policy-maker? The radical right in Europe, west and east: between margin and mainstream, J. Contemp. Eur. Stud., 21, 5, 10.1080/14782804.2013.766473 Minkenberg, 2007, The radical right in the European elections 2004, Int. Polit. Sci. Rev., 28, 29, 10.1177/0192512107070401 Mudde, 2007 Mudde, 2013, Three decades of populist radical right parties in Western Europe: so what?, Eur. J. Polit. Res., 52, 1, 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2012.02065.x Mudde, 2019 Oppenhuis, 1996, The party context: outcomes, 287 Reif, 1984, National electoral cycles and European elections, Elect. Stud., 3, 244, 10.1016/0261-3794(84)90005-2 Reif, 1997, European elections as member state second-order elections revisited, Eur. J. Polit. Res., 31, 115 Reif, 1980, Nine second-order national elections: a conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results, Eur. J. Polit. Res., 8, 3, 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1980.tb00737.x Rooduijn, 2014, The nucleus of populism: in search of the lowest common denominator, Gov. Oppos., 49, 572, 10.1017/gov.2013.30 Rooduijn, 2019 Sartori, 1976 Schäfer, 2021, The reshaping of political conflict over Europe: from pre-Maastricht to post- ‘Euro crisis’, W. Eur. Polit., 44, 531, 10.1080/01402382.2019.1709754 Schmitt, 2005, The EP elections of June 2004: still second-order?, W. Eur. Polit., 28, 650, 10.1080/01402380500085962 Schmitt, 2020, It all happens at once: understanding electoral behaviour in second-order elections, Polit. Govern., 8, 6, 10.17645/pag.v8i1.2513 Stimson, 1976, Public support for American presidents: a cyclical model, Publ. Opin. Q., 40, 1, 10.1086/268264 Tufte, 1975, Determinants of the outcomes of midterm congressional elections, Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 69, 812, 10.2307/1958391 1996 Van der Eijk, 1996, What voters teach us about europe-wide elections: what europe-wide elections teach us about voters, Elect. Stud., 15, 149, 10.1016/0261-3794(96)00009-1 Van Egmond, 2007, European elections as counterfactual national elections, 32 Van Spanje, 2007, Pariah parties and political exclusion, EUI Review, 3, 35 Weber, 2011, Exit, voice, and cyclicality: a micrologic of midterm effects in European parliament elections, Am. J. Polit. Sci., 55, 907, 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00535.x Wolinetz, 1991, Party system change: the catch‐all thesis revisited, W. Eur. Polit., 14, 113, 10.1080/01402389108424835 2022 Zulianello, 2018, Anti-system parties revisited: concept formation and guidelines for empirical research, Gov. Oppos., 53, 653, 10.1017/gov.2017.12 Zulianello, 2019 Zulianello, 2020, Varieties of populist parties and party systems in Europe: from state-of-the-art to the application of a novel classification scheme to 66 parties in 33 countries, Gov. Oppos., 55, 1, 10.1017/gov.2019.21