Ultrasonography survey and thyroid cancer in the Fukushima Prefecture
Tóm tắt
Thyroid cancer is one of the major health concerns after the accident in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station (NPS). Currently, ultrasonography surveys are being performed for persons residing in the Fukushima Prefecture at the time of the accident with an age of up to 18 years. Here, the expected thyroid cancer prevalence in the Fukushima Prefecture is assessed based on an ultrasonography survey of Ukrainians, who were exposed at an age of up to 18 years to 131I released during the Chernobyl NPS accident, and on differences in equipment and study protocol in the two surveys. Radiation risk of thyroid cancer incidence among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and preliminary estimates of thyroid dose due to the Fukushima accident were used for the prediction of baseline and radiation-related thyroid cancer risks. We estimate a prevalence of thyroid cancer of 0.027 % (95 % CI 0.010 %; 0.050 %) for the first screening campaign in the Fukushima Prefecture. Compared with the incidence rate in Japan in 2007, the ultrasonography survey is predicted to increase baseline thyroid cancer incidence by a factor of 7.4 (95 % CI 0.95; 17.3). Under the condition of continued screening, thyroid cancer during the first fifty years after the accident is predicted to be detected for about 2 % of the screened population. The prediction of radiation-related thyroid cancer in the most exposed fraction (a few ten thousand persons) of the screened population of the Fukushima Prefecture has a large uncertainty with the best estimates of the average risk of 0.1–0.3 %, depending on average dose.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Bloomberg M, Feldt-Rasmussen U, Andersen KK, Kjaer SK (2012) Thyroid cancer in Denmark 1943–2008, before and after iodine supplementation. Int J Cancer 131:2360–2366
Brenner AV, Tronko MD, Hatch M, Bogdanova TI, Oliynik VA, Lubin JH, Zablotska LB, Tereschenko VP, McConnell RJ, Zamotaeva GA, O’Kane P, Bouville AC, Chaykovskaya LV, Greenebaum E, Paster IP, Shpak VM, Ron E (2011) I-131 dose-response for incident thyroid cancers in Ukraine related to the Chornobyl accident. Environ Health Persp 119(7):933–939
Cardis E, Kesminiene A, Ivanov V, Malakhova I, Shibata Y, Khrouch V, Drozdovitch V, Maceika E, Zvonova I, Vlassov O, Bouville A, Goulko G, Hoshi M, Abrosimov A, Anoshko J, Astakhova L, Chekin S, Demidchik E, Galanti R, Ito M, Korobova E, Lushnikov E, Maksioutov M, Masyakin V, Nerovnia A, Parshin V, Parshkov E, Piliptsevich N, Pinchera A, Polyakov S, Shabeka N, Suonio E, Tenet V, Tsyb A, Yamashita S, Williams D (2005) Risk of thyroid cancer after exposure to 131I in childhood. J Natl Cancer Inst 97:724–732
Delides GS, Elemenoglou J, Lekkas J, Kittas C, Evthimiou C (1987) Occult thyroid carcinoma in a greek population. Neoplasma 34:119–125
Fedorenko ZP, Goulak LO, Gorokh YL, Soumkina OV, Ryzhov AYu, Koutsenko LB, Romanov DV (2002) Cancer in Ukraine, 2000–2001. Incidence, mortality, activities of oncological service. Bulletin of National Cancer Registry of Ukraine. National Cancer Registry of Ukraine, Kyiv
Fukushima Medical University (2013a) Fukushima Health Management Survey. Results of thyroid ultrasound examination. http://www.fmu.ac.jp/radiationhealth/results/media/12-2_ThyroidUE.pdf. Accessed 25 November 2013
Fukushima Medical University (2013b) Fukushima Health Management Survey. Results of thyroid ultrasound examination. http://www.fmu.ac.jp/radiationhealth/results/media/11-2_ThyroidUE.pdf. Accessed 27 November 2013
Furukawa K, Preston D, Funamoto S, Yonehara S, Ito M, Tokuoka S, Sugiyama H, Soda M, Ozasa K, Mabuchi K (2013) Long-term trend of thyroid cancer risk among Japanese atomic-bomb survivors: 60 years after exposure. Int J Cancer 132(5):1222–1226
Harach HR, Franssila KO, Wasenius VM (1985) Occult papillary carcinoma of the thyroid: a “normal” finding in Finland. A systematic autopsy study. Cancer 56:531–538
Hayashi Y, Lagarde F, Tsuda N, Funamoto S, Preston DL, Koyama K, Mabuchi K, Ron E, Kodama K, Tokuoka S (2010) Papillary microcarcinoma of the thyroid among atomic bomb survivors. Cancer 116:1646–1655
Heidenreich WF, Kenigsberg J, Jacob P, Buglova E, Goulko G, Paretzke HG, Demidchik EP, Golovneva A (1999) Time trend of thyroid cancer incidence in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident. Radiat Res 151:617–625
Jacob P, Bogdanova TI, Buglova E, Chepurniy M, Demidchik Y, Gavrilin Y, Kenigsberg J, Kruk J, Schotola C, Shinkarev S, Tronko MD, Vavilov S (2006a) Thyroid cancer among Ukrainians and Belarusian who were children or adolescents at the time of the Chernobyl accident. J Radiol Prot 26:51–67
Jacob P, Bogdanova TI, Buglova E, Chepurniy M, Demidchik Y, Gavrilin Y, Kenigsberg J, Meckbach R, Schotola C, Shinkarev S, Tronko MD, Ulanovsky A, Vavilov S, Walsh L (2006b) Thyroid cancer risk in areas of Ukraine and Belarus affected by the Chernobyl accident. Radiat Res 165:1–8
Jacob P, Rühm W, Walsh L, Blettner M, Hammer G, Zeeb H (2009) Is cancer risk of radiation workers larger than expected? Occup Environ Med 66:789–796
Kamada N, Saito O, Endo S, Kimura A, Shizuma K (2012) Radiation doses among residents living 37 km northwest of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. J Environ Radioact 10:84–89
Kazakov VS, Demidchik EP, Astakhova LN (1992) Thyroid cancer after Chernobyl. Nature 357:21
Kim E, Kurihara O, Suzuki T, Matsumoto M, Fukutso K, Yamada Y, Sugiura N, Akashi M (2013) Screening survey on thyroid exposure for children after the fukushima daiichi nuclear power station accident. In: Kurihara O et al. (eds) Proceedings of the 1st NIRS symposium on reconstruction of early internal dose in the TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi power station accident. NIRS-M-252. NIRS, Chiba, pp 59–66
Kopecky KJ, Stepanenko V, Rivkind N, Voillequé P, Onstad L, Shakhtarin V, Parshkov E, Kulikov S, Lushnikov E, Abrosimov A, Troshin V, Romanova G, Doroschenko V, Proshin A, Tsyb A, Davis S (2006) Childhood thyroid cancer, radiation dose from Chernobyl, and dose uncertainties in Bryansk Oblast, Russia: a population-based case-control study. Radiat Res 166:367–374
Likhtarov I, Kovgan L, Vavilov S, Chepurny M, Ron E, Lubin J, Bouville A, Tronko N, Bogdanova T, Gulak L, Zablotska L, Howe G (2006) Post-chornobyl thyroid cancer in ukraine. Report 2: risk analysis. Radiat Res 166:375–386
Matsuda N, Kumagi A, Ohtsuru A, Morita N, Miura M, Yoshida M, Kudo T, Takamura N, Yamashita S (2013) Assessment of internal exposure doses in fukushima by a whole body counter within one month after the nuclear power plant accident. Radiat Res 179:663–668
Moynihan R, Doust J, Henry D (2012) Preventing over diagnosis: how to stop harming the healthy. BMJ 344:e3502
National Cancer Center (2012) Cancer incidence from cancer registries in Japan (1975–2007). Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center, Japan. URL: http://ganjoho.jp/pro/statistics/en/table_download.html. Accessed 19 December 2012
National Cancer Registry of Ukraine (2013) Cancer in Ukraine. URL: www.i.com.ua/~ucr. Accessed 20 Apr 2013
National Research Council (2006) Health risks from exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation: BEIR VII phase 2. National Academy Press, Washington
O’Kane P, Shelkovoy E, McConnell RJ, Shpak V, Parker L, Brenner A, Zablotska L, Tronko M, Hatch M (2010) Frequency of undetected thyroid nodules in a large I-131-exposed population repeatedly screened by ultrasonography: results from the Ukrainian–American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases following the Chornobyl accident. Thyroid 20:959–964
Preston DL, Ron E, Tokuoka S, Funamoto S, Nishi N, Soda M, Mabuchi K, Kodama K (2007) Solid cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors: 1958–1998. Radiat Res 168:1–64
Ron E, Lubin JH, Shore RE, Mabuchi K, Modan B, Pottern LM, Schneider AB, Tucker MA, Boice JD Jr (1995) Thyroid cancer after exposure to external radiation: a pooled analysis of seven studies. Radiat Res 141(3):259–277
Rothmann KJ, Greenland S (1998) Modern epidemiology. Lippincott-Raven, Philadelphia
Taniguchi N, Hayashida N, Shimura H, Okubo N, Asari Y, Nigawara T, Midorikawa S, Kotani K, Nakaji S, Imaizumi M, Ohtsuru A, Akamizu T, Kitaoka M, Suzuki S, Yamashita S, Takamura N, The Investigation Committee for the Proportion of Thyroid Ultrasound Findings (2013) Ultrasonographic thyroid nodular findings in Japanese children. J Med Ultrason 40:219–224
Tokonami A, Hosoda M, Akiba A, Sorimachi A, Kashiwakura I, Balonov M (2012) Thyroid doses for evacuees from the Fukushima nuclear accident. Sci Rep 2:507. doi:10.1038/srep00507
Tronko M, Howe RW, Bogdanova TI, Bouville AC, Epstein OV, Brill AB, Likhtarev IA, Fink DJ, Markov VV, Greenebaum E, Olijnik VA, Masnyk IJ, Shpak VM, McConnell RJ, Tereschenko VP, Robbins J, Zvinchuk OV, Zablotska LB, Hatch M, Luckyanov NK, Thomas TL, Voilequé PG, Beebe GW (2006) A cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident: thyroid cancer in Ukraine detected during the first screening. J Natl Cancer Inst 98:897–903
UNSCEAR (2011) Sources and effects of ionizing radiation. UNSCEAR 2008 Report, Vol. II, Annex D. Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, United Nations, New York
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2011) EPA radiogenic cancer risk models and projections for the U.S. population. EPA 402-R-11-001
Veiga LHS, Lubin JH, Anderson H, de Vathaire F, Tucker M, Bhatti P, Schneider A, Johansson R, Inskip P, Kleinerman R, Shore R, Pottern L, Holmberg E, Hawkins MM, Jacob Adams M, Sadetzki S, Lundell M, Sakata R, Damber L, Neta G, Ron E (2012) A pooled analysis of thyroid cancer incidence following radiotherapy for childhood cancer. Radiat Res 178:365–376
Welch HG, Black WC (2010) Overdiagnosis in cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst 102:605–613
WHO (2012) Preliminary dose estimation from the nuclear accident after the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami. World Health Organization, Geneva. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/44877/1/9789241503662_eng.pdf. Accessed 14 Mar 2013
WHO (2013) Health risk assessment from the nuclear accident after the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami based on a preliminary dose estimation. World Health Organization, Geneva. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/78218/1/9789241505130_eng.pdf. Accessed 14 Mar 2013
Yuen APW, Ho ACW, Wong BYHW (2011) Ultrasonographic screening for occult thyroid cancer. Head Neck 33:453–457