Nội dung được dịch bởi AI, chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo
Phân tích xu hướng của mưa và các hiện tượng mưa cực đoan ở Sarawak, Malaysia bằng cách sử dụng kiểm định Mann–Kendall đã điều chỉnh
Tóm tắt
Nghiên cứu này đánh giá mô hình không gian của những thay đổi trong các hiện tượng mưa cực đoan ở Sarawak trong những năm gần đây (1980–2014). Kiểm định Mann–Kendall (MK) cùng với kiểm định Mann–Kendall đã điều chỉnh (m-MK), có khả năng phân biệt biến động đa quy mô của xu hướng đơn chiều, đã được sử dụng để phân tích sự thay đổi tại 31 trạm. Với việc xem xét hiệu ứng quy mô thông qua việc loại bỏ hiệu ứng tự tương quan, m-MK đã được sử dụng để phân biệt biến động đa quy mô của các xu hướng đơn chiều của lượng mưa hàng năm ở Sarawak. Kiểm định m-MK xác thực được tính chất ý nghĩa của kiểm định MK. Xu hướng lượng mưa hàng năm từ kiểm định MK cho thấy sự thay đổi đáng kể ở mức độ tin cậy 95% tại năm trạm. Xu hướng theo mùa từ kiểm định MK cho thấy tỷ lệ lượng mưa tăng trong mùa gió mùa Đông Bắc và xu hướng giảm trong mùa gió mùa Tây Nam ở một số khu vực của Sarawak. Tuy nhiên, kiểm định m-MK chỉ phát hiện xu hướng tăng của lượng mưa hàng năm tại một trạm và không có xu hướng đáng kể nào trong mùa mưa tại bất kỳ trạm nào. Các xu hướng tăng đáng kể của lượng mưa tối đa trong 1 giờ từ kiểm định MK chủ yếu được phát hiện tại các trạm nằm trong khu vực đô thị, tạo ra mối lo ngại về khả năng xảy ra lũ quét. Mặt khác, kiểm định m-MK không phát hiện xu hướng đáng kể nào trong lượng mưa tối đa 1 giờ và 3 giờ tại bất kỳ vị trí nào. Ngược lại, nó phát hiện các xu hướng đáng kể trong lượng mưa tối đa 6 giờ và 72 giờ tại một trạm nằm ở khu vực hạ lưu Rajang, một khu vực nông nghiệp thấp trũng rộng lớn và dễ bị lũ stagnan. Những kết quả này cho thấy các xu hướng trong lượng mưa và các hiện tượng mưa cực đoan được báo cáo ở Malaysia và khu vực xung quanh cần được xác minh bằng kiểm định m-MK, vì hầu hết các xu hướng có thể do hiệu ứng quy mô.
Từ khóa
#mưa #mưa cực đoan #kiểm định Mann-Kendall #Sarawak #MalaysiaTài liệu tham khảo
Abolverdi J, Ferdosifar G, Khalili D, Kamgar-Haghighi AA (2016) Spatial and temporal changes of precipitation concentration in Fars province, southwestern Iran. Meteorol Atmos Phys 128(2):181–196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-015-0414-0
Aldrian E, Djamil YS (2008) Spatio-temporal climatic change of rainfall in east Java Indonesia. Int J Climatol 28:435–448. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1543
Bari SH, Rahman MTU, Hoque MA, Hussain MM (2016) Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh. Atmos Res 176:148–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.02.008
Bunde A, Ludescher J, Franzke CLE, Büntgen U (2014) How significant is West Antarctic warming? Nat Geosci 7:246–247
Caesar J et al (2011) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Indo-Pacific region from 1971 to 2005. Int J Climatol 31:791–801. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2118
Camera C, Bruggeman A, Hadjinicolaou P, Michaelides S, Lange MA (2016) Evaluation of a spatial rainfall generator for generating high resolution precipitation projections over orographically complex terrain. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1239-1
Chang CP, Harr PA, Chen H-J (2005) Synoptic disturbances over the equatorial South China Sea and western Maritime Continent during boreal winter. Mon Weather Rev 133:489–503. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-2868.1
Chang C-WJ, Tseng W-L, Hsu H-H, Keenlyside N, Tsuang B-J (2015) The Madden–Julian Oscillation in a warmer world. Geophys Res Lett 42:6034–6042. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065095
Deni SM, Suhaila J, Wan Zin WZ, Jemain AA (2009) Trends of wet spells over Peninsular Malaysia during monsoon seasons. Sains Malays 38(2):133–142
Deni SM, Suhaila J, Wan Zin WZ, Jemain AA (2010) Spatial trends of dry spells over Peninsular Malaysia during monsoon seasons. Theor Appl Climatol 99(3–4):357. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0147-4
Dindang A, Chung CN, Seth S (2011) Heavy Rainfall Episodes over Sarawak during January–February 2009 Northeast Monsoon (Research publication no. 11). Malaysian Meteorological Department. http://www.met.gov.my/web/metmalaysia/publications/technicalpaper/fullpapers/document/12018/researchpaper_201111.pdf. Accessed 22 Nov 2016
Dindang A, Taat A, Beng PE, Mohd Alwi A, Mandai A, Mat Adam SF, Othman FS, Awang Bina DN, Lah D (2013) Statistical and trend analysis of rainfall data in Kuching, Sarawak from 1968–2010 (Research publication no. 6). Malaysian Meteorological Department. http://www.met.gov.my/web/metmalaysia/publications/technicalpaper/fullpapers/document/44755/rp06_2013.pdf. Accessed 22 Nov 2016
Ehsanzadeh E, Adamowski K (2010) Trends in timing of low stream flows in Canada: impact of autocorrelation and long-term persistence. Hydrol Process 24(8):970–980
Endo N, Matsumoto J, Lwin T (2009) Trends in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia. Sola 5:168–171. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2009-043
Fathian F, Morid S, Kahya E (2015) Identification of trends in hydrological and climatic variables in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 119:443–464
Forest Department Sarawak. (2013) Sarawak forest department annual report 2013. Forest Dept, Sarawak
Franzke CLE (2012) On the statistical significance of surface air temperature in the Eurasian Arctic region. Geophys Res Lett 39:L23705. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL054244
Gao X, Peng S, Wang W, Xu J, Yang S (2016) Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of reference evapotranspiration trends in Karst area: a case study in Guizhou Province, China. Meteorol Atmos Phys 128(5):1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0442-4
Gasim MB, Toriman ME, Abdullahi MG (2014) Floods in Malaysia historical reviews, causes, effects and mitigations approach. Int J Interdiscip Res Innov 2(4):59–65
Hamdan H, Taat A, Beng PE, Mohd Alwi A, Mandai A et al (2012) Relationships of SOI on Sarawak Climate during Northeast Monsoon (Research publication no. 1). Malaysian Meteorological Department. http://www.met.gov.my/web/metmalaysia/publications/technicalpaper/fullpapers/document/44752/rp01_2012.pdf. Accessed 22 Nov 2016
Hamed KH (2008) Trend detection in hydrologic data: the Mann–Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. J Hydrol 349(3):350–363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.11.009
Hamed KH (2009) Exact distribution of the Mann–Kendall trend test statistic for persistent data. J Hydrol 365(1):86–94
Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204(1–4):182–196
Harun R, Yip JW, Thiruvenkadam S, Ghani WA, Cherrington T, Danquah MK (2014) Algal biomass conversion to bioethanol—a step-by-step assessment. Biotechnol J 9(1):73–86. https://doi.org/10.1002/biot.201200353
Hidayat R, Kizu S (2010) Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Indonesian rainfall variability in austral summer. Int J Climatol 30(12):1816–1825. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2005
Iliopoulou T, Papalexiou SM, Markonis Y, Koutsoyiannis D (2016) Revisiting long-range dependence in annual precipitation. J Hydrol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.015
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, p 151
Jha MK, Singh AK (2013) Trend analysis of extreme runoff events in major river basins of Peninsular Malaysia. Int J of Water 7(1–2):142–158. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJW.2013.051995
Johnson JA (2012) Assessing the impact of climate change in borneo. World Wildlife Fund’s Environmental Economic
Kendall MG (1948) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London. https://doi.org/10.2307/2333282
Kottek M, Grieser J, Beck C, Rudolf B, Rubel F (2006) World map of the Köppen–Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorol Z 15(3):259–263. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130
Koutsoyiannis D (2003) Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics. Hydrolog Sci J 48(1):3–24. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.3.43481
Koutsoyiannis D, Montanari A (2007) Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: uncertainty and insights. Water Resour Res 43(5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005592
Kumar S, Merwade V, Kam J, Thurner K (2009) Streamflow trends in Indiana: effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. J Hydrol 374:171–183
Lacombe G, Hoanh CT, Smakhtin V (2012) Multi-year variability or unidirectional trends? Mapping long-term precipitation and temperature changes in continental Southeast Asia using PRECIS regional climate model. Clim Change 113(2):285–299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0359-3
Lim SC, Marzin P, Xavier CC, Timbal B (2017) Impacts of Boreal Winter Monsoon Cold Surges and the Interaction with MJO on Southeast Asia Rainfall. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0546.1
Liu Z, Pagani M, Zinniker D, DeConto R, Huber M, Brinkhuis H, Shah SR, Leckie RM, Pearson A (2009) Global cooling during the eocene-oligocene climate transition. Science 323(5918):1187–1190
Lu X, Wang L, Pan M, Kaseke KF, Li B (2016) A multi-scale analysis of Namibian rainfall over the recent decade—comparing TMPA satellite estimates and ground observations. J Hydrol Reg Stud 8:59–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.07.003
Ludescher J, Bunde A, Franzke CLE, Schellnhuber HJ (2016) Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica. Clim Dyn 46:263–271
Maloney ED, Shaman J (2008) Intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon and Atlantic ITCZ. J Clim 21(12):2898–2918. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1999.1
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Manton MJ, Della-Marta PM, Haylock MR, Hennessy KJ, Nicholls N, Chambers LE et al (2001) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998. Int J Climatol 21(3):269–284. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.610
Markonis Y, Koutsoyiannis D (2015) Scale-dependence of persistence in precipitation records. Nat Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2894
Mayowa OO, Pour SH, Shahid S, Mohsenipour M, Harun SB, Heryansyah A, Ismail T (2015) Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. J Earth Syst Sci 124(8):1609–1622
McLeod AI, Hipel KW (1978) Preservation of the rescaled adjusted range: 1. A reassessment of the Hurst Phenomenon. Water Resour Res 14(3):491–508. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR014i003p00491
McMichael AJ, Haines A, Slooff R, Kovats S (1996) Climate change and human health. An assessment by a Task Group on behalf of the World Health Organization the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme
Mishra V, Ganguly AR, Nijssen B, Lettenmaier DP (2015) Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas. Environ Res Lett 10(2):024005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024005
Ongoma V, Chen H (2016) Temporal and spatial variability of temperature and precipitation over East Africa from 1951 to 2010. Meteorol Atmos Phys 33:1–2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0462-0
Othman M, Ash’aari ZH, Mohamad ND (2015) Long-term daily rainfall pattern recognition: application of principal component analysis. Procedia Environ Sci 30:127–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2015.10.022
Pour SH, Harun SB, Shahid S (2014) Genetic programming for the downscaling of extreme rainfall events on the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Atmosphere 5:914–936
Rahman MA, Yunsheng L, Sultana N (2016) Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s rho tests and ARIMA model. Meteorol Atmos Phys. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0479-4
Rao RA, Azli M, Pae LJ (2011) Identification of trends in Malaysian monthly runoff under the scaling hypothesis. Hydrol Sci J 56(6):917–929
Rashid MM, Beecham S, Chowdhury RK (2015) Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment. Sci Total Environ 530:171–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.024
Robertson A, Moron V, Qian J, Chang CP, Tangang F, Aldrian E, Koh TY, Juneng L (2011) The maritime continent monsoon, in the global monsoon system: research and forecast. Chang CP, Ding Y, Lau NC, Johnson RH, Wang B, Yasunari T (eds) World scientific series on Asia-Pacific weather and climate, 2nd edn, vol. 5, World Scientific Publication Company, Singapore, p 608
Salahuddin A, Curtis S (2011) Climate extremes in Malaysia and the equatorial South China Sea. Glob Planet Change 78(3):83–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.05.001
Sang YW, Yik DJ, Chang NK, Yunus F (2015) Analysis on the long term trends of consecutive dry and wet days and extreme rainfall amounts in Malaysia (Research publication no. 2). Malaysian Meteorological Department. http://www.met.gov.my/web/metmalaysia/publications/technicalpaper/fullpapers/document/44762/rp02_2015.pdf. Accessed 22 Nov 2016
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
Shahid S (2010) Rainfall variability and the trends of wet and dry periods in Bangladesh. Int J Climatol 30(15):2299–2313. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2053
Shahid S, Wang XJ, Harun S (2014) Unidirectional trends in rainfall and temperature of Bangladesh. IAHS-AISH proceedings and reports. Copernic GmbH 363(6):177–182
Sonali P, Kumar DN (2013) Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India. J Hydrol 476:212–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.034
Suhaila J, Jemain AA (2009) A comparison of the rainfall patterns between stations on the East and the West coasts of Peninsular Malaysia using the smoothing model of rainfall amounts. Meteorol Appl 16(3):391–401. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.137
Suhaila J, Jemain AA, Hamdan MF, Zin WZW (2011) Comparing rainfall patterns between regions in Peninsular Malaysia via a functional data analysis technique. J Hydrol 411(3):197–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.09.043
Sung JH, Chung ES, Lee B, Kim Y (2015) Meteorological hazard assessment based on trends and abrupt changes in rainfall characteristics on the Korean peninsula. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1581-0
Tangang FT, Juneng L, Ahmad S (2007) Trend and interannual variability of temperature in Malaysia: 1961–2002. Theor Appl Climatol 89:127–141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-006-0263-3
Tangang FT, Juneng L, Salimun E, Vinayachandran PN, Seng YK, Reason CJC, Behera SK, Yasunari T (2008) On the roles of the northeast cold surge, the Borneo vortex, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole during the extreme 2006/2007 flood in southern Peninsular Malaysia. Geophys Res Lett 35:L14S07. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033429
Thomas J, Prasannakumar V (2016) Temporal analysis of rainfall (1871–2012) and drought characteristics over a tropical monsoon-dominated State (Kerala) of India. J Hydrol 534:266–280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1015-9
Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47(1–2):123–138. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953
Tyralis H, Dimitriadis P, Iliopoulou T, Tzouka K, Koutsoyiannis D (2017) Dependence of long-term persistence properties of precipitation on spatial and regional characteristics. Geophys Res Abstr 19(EGU2017-3711):2017
Varikoden H, Preethi B, Samah AA, Babu CA (2011) Seasonal variation of rainfall characteristics in different intensity classes over Peninsular Malaysia. J Hydrol 404(1):99–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.021
Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Ali M, Shahid S, He R-M, Xia X-H, Jiang Z (2016) Impact of climate change on regional irrigation water demand in Baojixia irrigation district of China. Miti Adapt Strateg Glob Change 21:233–247
Xiao Y, Zhang X, Wan H, Wang Y, Liu C, Xia J (2016) Spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall across Ganjiang River Basin in China. Meteorol Atmos Phys 128(2):167–179. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-015-0411-3
Yik DJ, Sang YW, Mat Adam MK, Chang NK, Yunus F Abdullah MH (2015) The definitions of the southwest monsoon climatological onset and withdrawal over Malaysian region (Research publication no. 3). Malaysian Meteorological Department. http://www.met.gov.my/web/metmalaysia/publications/technicalpaper/fullpapers/document/44762/rp03_2015.pdf. Accessed 22 Nov 2016
Yue S, Wang CY (2002) Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resour Res 38(6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000861
Yue S, Wang C (2004) The Mann–Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18(3):201–218. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000043140.61082.60
Yusuf AA, Francisco H (2009) Climate change vulnerability mapping for Southeast Asia. In: Economy and environment program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), Singapore, pp 10–15
Zhang C (2005) Madden–Julian oscillation. Rev Geophys. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000158