Transition pathways to fully automated driving and its implications for the sociotechnical system of automobility

Eva Fraedrich1, Sven Beiker2, Barbara Lenz3
1Geography Department – Transport Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany
21102 Clark Way, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, USA
3German Aerospace Center, Institute of Transport Research, Rutherfordstraße 2, 12489, Berlin, Germany

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Fagnant D, Kockelman K (2013) Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations for capitalizing on self-driven vehicles. William P. Eno Paper. http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman/public_html/ENOReport_BCAofAVs.pdf . Accessed 24 June 2015

Litman T (2015) Autonomous vehicle implementation predictions—implications for transport planning. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. http://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf . Accessed 24 June 2015

Pyper J, ClimateWire (2014) Self-driving cars could cut greenhouse gas pollution. Scientific American. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/self-driving-cars-could-cut-greenhouse-gas-pollution/Bullis , K. (2011): How Vehicle Automation Will Cut Fuel Consumption. October 24, 2011 http://www.technologyreview.com/news/425850/how-vehicle-automation-will-cut-fuel-consumption/ . Accessed 14 Mar 2015

Hucko M (2015) Verkehrsplanung: “Selbstfahrende Autos sind eine Chance für die Stadt”. Spiegel Online. http://www.spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/autonomes-fahren-chance-fuer-die-stadt-a-997393.html . Accessed 14 Mar 2015

Fung B (2014) The future of Google’s driverless car is old people. The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/05/28/the-future-of-googles-driverless-car-is-old-people/ . Accessed 14 Mar 2015

Kruse P (2009) Ein Kultobjekt wird abgewrackt. GDI Impuls 1: 12–20. http://www.z-punkt.de/fileadmin/be_user/D_News/D_2009_02_Newsletter/GDI_Impuls_1_09.pdf . Accessed 24 June 2015

Fox WM (1995) Sociotechnical system principles and guidelines: past and present. J Appl Behav Sci 31:91–105

Latour B (1996) Aramis, or the love of technology. Harvard University Press, Cambridge

Geels FW (2005) The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: a multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860–1930). Tech Anal Strat Manag 17:445–476

Lyons G (2012) Visions for the future and the need for a social science perspective in transport studies. In: Geels FW, Kemp R, Dudley G, Lyons G (eds) Automobility in transition?—a socio-technical analysis of sustainable transport. Routledge, New York et al., pp 29–48

Urry J (2004) The ‘system of automobility’. Theory Cult Soc 21:25–39

De Haan J, Rotmans J (2011) Patterns in transitions: understanding complex chains of change. Technol Forecast Social Chang 87:90–102

Morton C, Schuitema G, Anable J (2011) Electric vehicles: Will consumers get charged up? 43nd Annual UTSG Conference. http://www.academia.edu/5439476/Electric_Vehicles_Will_consumers_get_charged_up . Accessed 14 Mar 2015

Smith A, Voß JP, Grin J (2010) Innovation studies and sustainability transitions: the allure of the multi-level perspective and its challenges. Res Policy 39:435–448

Genus A, Coles AM (2008) Rethinking the multi-level perspective of technological transitions. Res Policy 37:1436–1445

Rotmans J, Kemp R, Asselt MV (2001) More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy. Foresight 3:15–31

Joas H, Knöbl W (2004) Sozialtheorie: Zwanzig einführende Vorlesungen. Suhrkamp, Frankfurt am Main

Manderscheid K (2014) The movement problem, the car and future mobility regimes: automobility as dispositif and mode of regulation. Mobilities 9:604–626

Geels F (2010) Ontologies, socio-technical transitions (to sustainability), and the multi-level perspective. Res Policy 39(4):495–510

Verbong GP, Geels F (2010) Exploring sustainability transitions in the electricity sector with socio-technical pathways. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 77(8):1214–1221

Geels F (2011) The multi-level perspective on sustainability transitions: responses to seven criticisms. Environ Innov Societal Transit 1:24–40

Shove E, Walker G (2010) Governing transitions in the transitions in the sustainability of everyday life. Res Policy 39:471–476

Geels F, Schot J (2007) Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Res Policy 36(3):399–417

Berkhout F, Smith A, Stirling A (2003) Socio-technological regimes and transition contexts. SPRU Electron Working Paper Series 106:1–36

Latour B (2005) Reassembling the social: an introduction to actor-Network-theory. Oxford University Press, Oxford

Thrift N (2004) Driving in the City. Theory Cult Soc 21:41–59

Bull M (2001) Soundscapes of the Car: A Critical Ethnography of Automobile Habitation. In: Miller D (ed) Car cultures. Berg Publishers, Oxford, pp 185–202

Gilroy P (2001) Driving While Black. In: Miller D (ed) Car cultures. Berg Publishers, Oxford, pp 81–104

Stotz G (2001) The Colonizing Vehicle. In: Miller D (ed) Car cultures. Berg Publishers, Oxford, pp 223–243

Böhm S, Jones C, Land C, Paterson M (2006) Introduction: impossibilities of automobility. Sociol Rev 54:1–16

Geels F, Kemp R, Dudley G, Lyons G (2012) Automobility in transition?—a socio-technical analysis of sustainable transport. Routledge, New York

Goodwin KJ (2010) Reconstructing automobility: the making and the breaking of modern transportation. Glob Environ Polit 10:60–78

OECD, International Transport Forum (2013) Long-run trends in car use. ITF Round Tables No. 152, OECD Publishing/ITF. doi: 10.1787/9789282105931-en . Accessed 14 March 2015

Chen Q, Le Vine S, Polak J (2014) Generation Next. The changing travel habits of pre-driving age young people in Britain. The Royal Automobile Club Foundation (RAC), London

Feige I, Kuhnimhof T (2013) ‘Mobility Y’—the emerging travel patterns of generation Y. Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo), München

Kent J (2014) Driving to save time or saving time to drive? The enduring appeal of the private car. Transp Res A 65:103–115

Sheller M (2004) Automotive emotions feeling the car. Theory Cult Soc 21:221–242

Kubitzki J (2014) Jung und urban. Sicherheit und Mobilität 18–24-Jähriger im motorisierten Straßenverkehr. Allianz Deutschland AG, München

Becker J (2015) So schnell rostet Autoliebe nicht. Süddeutsche.de. http://www.sueddeutsche.de/auto/zukunft-des-fahrens-so-schnell-rostet-autoliebe-nicht-1.2285713 . Accessed 14 March 2015

Kröger F (2015) Das automatisierte Fahren im gesellschaftsgeschichtlichen und kulturwissenschaftlichen Kontext. In: Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (eds) Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, pp 41–68

Minx E, Dietrich R (2015) Geleitwort. In: Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (eds) Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, pp V–VII

SAE International (2014) Automated driving levels of driving automation are defined in New SAE International Standard J3016. SAE International. http://templatelab.com/automated-driving/ . Accessed 14 March 2015

Highly Automated Vehicles of Intelligent Transport (HAVEit): Project, part of the 7th RTD Framework Programme of the European Union (FP7-ICT – Information and Communication Technologies. http://www.haveit-eu.org Accessed 24 June 2015

European Road Transport Research Advisory Council (ERTRAC) (2013) Multi-annual implementation plan for horizon 2020. http://www.ertrac.org/index.php?mact=DocumentSearch,cntnt01,default,1&cntnt01documentsearch_id=20&cntnt01returnid=88&page=88 . Accessed 24 June 2015

Burns L (2013) Sustainable mobility: A vision of our transport future. Nature 497: 181–182. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v497/n7448/full/497181a.html . Accessed 24 June 2015

Winkle T (2015) Sicherheitspotenzial automatisierter Fahrzeuge: Erkenntnisse aus der Unfallforschung. In: Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (eds) Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, pp 351–376

Hönle S (2015) Connected & Automated Driving. ERTRAC 2015 Annual Conference. http://www.ertrac.org/uploads/documents_publications/2015%20Conference%20presentations/Bosch.pdf . Accessed 24 June 2015

Friedrich B (2015) Verkehrliche Wirkung autonomer Fahrzeuge. In: Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (eds) Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, pp 331–350

Silberg G, Wallace R, Matuszak G (2012) Self-driving cars: The next revolution. KPMG. https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/self-driving-cars-next-revolution.pdf . Accessed 42 June 2015

Leech J, Whelan G, Bhaiji M (2015) Connected and autonomous vehicles – The UK Economic Opportunity. KPMG. http://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/CRT036586F-Connected-and-Autonomous-Vehicles-%E2%80%93-The-UK-Economic-Opportu…1.pdf . Accessed 24 June 2015

Diem W (2013) Driver assistance to driverless cars: technologies, challenges and outlook. Autelligence limited

Anderson J, Kalra N, Stanley K, Sorenson P, Samaras C, Oluwatola O (2014) Autonomous Vehicle Technology. A Guide for Policymakers. RAND Corporation, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR400/RR443-1/RAND_RR443-1.pdf . Accessed 24 June 2015

Le Vine S, Polak J (2014) Automated cars: a smooth ride ahead? ITC Occasional Paper. Number Five. Independent Transport Commission (ITC). http://www.theitc.org.uk/docs/114.pdf . Accessed 24 June 2015

Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (2015): Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte, Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-662-45854-9 . Accessed 24 June 2015.

Wachenfeld W, Winner H, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Maurer M, Beiker S, Fraedrich E, Winkle T (2015) Use-cases des autonomen Fahrens. In: Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (eds) Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, pp 9–37

Beiker S (2015) Einführungsszenarien für höhergradig automatisierte Straßenfahrzeuge. In: Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (eds) Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, pp 197–217

Becker J, Aranda Colas M-B, Nordbruch S, Fausten M (2014) Bosch’s Vision and Roadmap Toward Fully Autonomous Driving. In: Meyer G, Beiker S (eds) Road vehicle automation. Springer International Publishing, Wiesbaden, pp 49–59

Continental (2012) Continental strategy focuses on automated driving. Press release. https://www.conti-online.com/www/pressportal_com_en/themes/press_releases/1_topics/automated_driving_en/pr_2012_12_18_automated_driving_en.html . Accesses 24 June 2015

Daimler: Mercedes-Benz Intelligent Drive – On the road to autonomous driving. avoiding danger, providing timely warning and assisting. http://www.daimler.com/dccom/0-5-1210218-1-1462148-1-0-0-1210228-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0.html . Accessed 24 June 2015

BMW: Traffic jam assistant. http://www.bmw.com/com/en/newvehicles/x/x5/2013/showroom/driver_assistance/traffic_jam_assistant.html#t=l . Accessed 24 June 2015

Nissan (2013) Nissan Announces Unprecedented Autonomous Drive Benchmarks. Press Release. http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/nissan-announces-unprecedented-autonomous-drive-benchmarks . Accessed 24 June 2015

ESC Installation Rates Worldwide by New Car Registration”, Bosch Unternehmenswebseite, http://www.bosch.co.jp/en/press/pdf/rbjp-1009-02-01.pdf

McBride, B., “Vehicle Sales: Fleet Turnover Ratio”, Calculated Risk, http://www.calculatedrisk-blog.com/2014/09/vehicle-sales-fleet-turnover-ratio.html . Accessed 24 June 2015

Wolf I (2015) Wechselwirkung Mensch und autonomer Agent. In: Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (eds) Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, pp 103–126

Färber B (2015) Kommunikationsprobleme zwischen autonomen Fahrzeugen und menschlichen Fahrern. In: Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (eds) Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, pp 127–146

Waytz A, Heafner J, Epley N (2014) The mind in the machine: anthropomorphism increases trust in an autonomous vehicle. J Exp Soc Psychol 52:113–117

Siemens AG (2012) The Green City Index. A summary of the Green City Index research series. http://www.siemens.com/entry/cc/de/greencityindex.htm Accessed 24 June 2015

Zetsche D (2015) Dr. Dieter Zetsche – Mercedes-Benz - KEYNOTE 2015. International CES 5.01.2015. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMmYFxe6O-I . Accessed 14 March 2015

Laurier E, Dant T (2012) What We Do Whilst Driving: Towards the Driverless Car. In: Grieco M, Urry J (eds) Mobilities: new perspectives on transport and society. Ashgate, Hampshire, pp 223–244

Thrun S (2010) What we’re driving at, Official Google Blog, http://googleblog.blogspot.de/2010/10/what-were-driving-at.html Accessed 24 June 2015

Ingram A (2014) Nokia Joins Autonomous Car Development With $100M Fund“, Motorauthority, http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1091948_nokia-joins-autonomous-car-development-with-100m-fund . Accessed 24 June 2015

Ramsey M (2015) Carnegie mellon reels after uber lures away researchers. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.wsj.com/articles/is-uber-a-friend-or-foe-of-carnegie-mellon-in-robotics-1433084582 . Accessed 24 June 2015

Fehrenbacher K (2013) Zappos CEO rethinks urban transportation in Vegas with 100 Tesla Model S cars, Gigaom. https://gigaom.com/2013/04/03/zappos-ceo-rethinks-urban-transportation-in-vegas-with-100-tesla-model-s-cars/

Google Self-Driving Car Project. Official Website. http://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/ . Accessed 26 June 2015

Rammler S (2015) Doppelter Fahrerwechsel in der Autobranche. In: Zeit Online. http://www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2015-02/apple-google-auto-digitalisierung . Accessed 24 June 2015

Caula R (2014) AKKA link&go 2.0 electric self-driving concept designed for future cities, http://www.designboom.com/technology/akka-linkgo-2-0-electric-driverless-concept-car-for-the-city-of-the-future-03-12-2014/ Accessed 24 June 2015

CityMobil2 (2012) CityMobil2 http://www.citymobil2.eu/en/ . Accessed 14 March 2015

Milton Keynes (2014) Driverless Pods: first three to arrive in Milton Keynes in March - and fleet of 40 will follow soon after. MK News. http://www.mkweb.co.uk/DRIVERLESS-PODS-arrive-Milton-Keynes-March/story-25155183-detail/story.html . Accessed 14 March 2015

Silicon Valley Autonomous Vehicle Enthusiasts: Official Website. http://www.meetup.com/de/Silicon-Valley-Autonomous-Vehicle-Enthusiasts/ . Accessed 24 June 2015

Lenz B, Fraedrich E (2015) Neue Mobilitätskonzepte und autonomes Fahren: Potenziale der Veränderung. In: Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (eds) Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, pp 175–196

Schreurs M, Steuwer S (2014) Autonomous Driving – Political, Legal, Social, and Sustainability Dimensions. In: Maurer M, Gerdes JC, Lenz B, Winner H (ed) Autonomes Fahren. Technische, rechtliche und gesellschaftliche Aspekte. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, pp 151–174

Schön S, Nölting B, Meister M (2004) Konstellationsanalyse. Ein interdisziplinäres Brückenkonzept für die Technik-, Nachhaltigkeits- und Innovationsforschung. Discussion Paper 12. Zentrum für Technik und Gesellschaft, Berlin

Schirrmeister M (2014) Controversial futures—discourse analysis on utilizing the “fracking” technology in Germany. Eur J Futur Res 2(38):1–9

Foucault M (1980) Power/Knowledge. Selected Interviews and Other Writings 1972–1977. Pantheon Books, New York City

Vergragt PJ, Szejnwald Brown H (2007) Sustainable mobility: from technological innovation to societal learning. J Clean Prod 15:1104–1115