Transit to eternal youth: lifecycle and generational trends in Greater Montreal public transport mode share
Tóm tắt
Young people appear to be using public transit more than their predecessors, reversing twentieth century trends, but the importance of such findings depends on whether high transit use persists as these riders age. This paper examines whether transit mode share for commuting trips is increasing; socio-economic and geographic trends are also explored to attempt to determine whether these trends are likely to continue. The study uses repeated cross-sectional origin–destination surveys of Greater Montreal (1998, 2003 and 2008). Over 45,000 home-to-work and home-to-school trips are studied for each survey year. A general lifecycle pattern of decreasing transit share with age is apparent within cohorts until individuals reach their early 30s, followed by decades of stability. This pattern appears to hold in recent years, but with higher youth use rates, and it is argued that the higher use will continue as current younger cohorts mature. Suburbanization by those in their early 30s is evident and, along with household composition changes, appears to explain much of the final within-cohort mode share declines before equilibrium. Transit providers might see lasting ridership gains, as those currently in their early 30s and younger replace lower-use cohorts in the workforce, provided service provision keeps pace. Addressing the needs of young people, whose mode choices are comparatively unsettled, should be a priority for transit agencies to ensure higher transit usage in the future.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Agence Métropolitaine de Transport (AMT): Fichier de déplacements des personnes dans la région de Montréal Enquête Origine-Destination (1998)
Agence Métropolitaine de Transport (AMT): Fichier de déplacements des personnes dans la région de Montréal Enquête Origine-Destination 2003, version 03.b période automne (2003)
Agence Métropolitaine de Transport (AMT): Fichier de déplacements des personnes dans la région de Montréal Enquête Origine-Destination 2008, version 2.a.2 période automne (2008)
Agence Métropolitaine de Transport (AMT): AMT—origin-destination survey (2012). http://www.amt.qc.ca/corp_template.aspx?id=686&LangType=1033. Retrieved 20 Jan 2012
Bagley, M., Mokhtarian, P.: The impact of residential neighborhood type on travel behavior: a structural equations modeling approach. Ann. Reg. Sci. 36(2), 279–297 (2002)
Beaupre, P., Dryburgh, H., Wendt, M.: Making fathers “count” (2010). http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-008-x/2010002/article/11165-eng.htm#n15. Retrieved 13 Apr 2012
Beige, S.: Long-term and mid-term mobility decisions during the life course. Dissertation, Institut für Verkehrsplanung und Transportsysteme, Zürich (2008)
Bush, S.: Forecasting 65 + travel: An integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling. Paper presented at the Annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 2005. http://18.7.29.232/bitstream/handle/1721.1/29941/52770123.pdf?sequence=1
Cervero, R., Kockelman, K.: Travel demand and the 3D’s: density, diversity, and design. Transp. Res. D 2(3), 199–219 (1997)
Chung, K.: Estimating the effects of employment, development level, and parking availability on CTA rapid transit ridership: from 1976 to 1995 in Chicago. Paper presented at the metropolitan conference on Public Transportation Research, University of Illinois, Chicago, 30 May 1997
City of Montreal: Montreal master plan (2003). http://ville.montreal.qc.ca/portal/page?_dad=portal&_pageid=2762,3099972&_schema=PORTAL
Coffey, W., Shearmur, R.: The identification of employment centres in Canadian metropolitan areas: the example of Montreal, 1996. Can. Geogr. 45(3), 371–386 (2001)
Collin, J., Dagenais, M., Poitras, C.: From city to city-region: historical perspective on the contentious definition of the Montréal Metropolitan area. Can. J. Urb. Res. 12(1), 16–34 (2003)
Dargay, J.: The effect of prices and income on car travel in the UK. Transp. Res. A 41(10), 949–960 (2007)
Dargay, J., Hanly, M.: Travel to work: an investigation based on the british household panel survey Paper presented at the NECTAR conference No. 7, Umea, 2003
Dargay, J., Hanly, M.: Volatility of car ownership, commuting mode and time in the UK. Transp. Res. A 41(10), 934–948 (2007)
Davis, B., Dutzik, T., Baxandall, P.: Transportation and the new generation: why young people are driving less and what it means for transportation policy: Frontier Group, U.S. PIRG Education Fund (2012)
Dickens, M.: Public Transportation Ridership Report: Fourth Quarter 2009, pp. 1–34. American Public Transportation Association, Washington (2010)
Dickens, M.: APTA Ridership by Mode and Quarter 1990–Present. American Public Transportation Association, Washington (2012a)
Dickens, M.: Public Transportation Ridership Report: Fourth Quarter 2011, pp. 1–31. American Public Transportation Association, Washington (2012b)
Garling, T., Axhausen, K.: Introduction: habitual travel choice. Transportation 30(1), 1–11 (2003)
Handy, S., Cao, X., Mokhtarian, P.: Correlation or causality between the built environment and travel behavior? Evidence from Northern California. Transp. Res. D 10(6), 427–444 (2005)
Human Resources and Skills Development Canada: Family Life–age of mothers at first birth (2012). http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]?iid=75. Retrieved 13 Apr 2012
Kitamura, R., Mokhtarian, P., Laidet, L.: A micro-analysis of land use and travel in five neighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay area. Transportation 24(2), 125–158 (1997)
Kuhnimhof, T., Buehler, R., Wirtz, M., Kalinowska, D.: Travel trends among young adults in Germany: increasing multimodality and declining car use for men. J. Transp. Geogr. 28, 443–450 (2012)
Kuzmyak, J., Evans, J., Pratt, R.: Chapter 19—Employer and Institutional TDM Strategies TCRP Report 95: Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes. Transportation Research Board, Washington (2010)
Levinson, D., Krizek, K.: Planning for Place and Plexus: Metropolitan Land Use and Transport. Routledge, New York (2008)
Limtanakool, N., Dijst, M.: The influence of socioeconomic characteristics, land use and travel time in consideration on mod choice for medium- and longer-distance trips. J. Transp. Geogr. 14(5), 327–341 (2006)
Marsden, G.: The evidence base for parking policies—a review. Transp. Policy 13(6), 447–457 (2006)
Matas, A., Raymond, J.: Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain. Transp. Res. A 42(1), 187–202 (2008)
Ministère de l’education loisir et sport: Reform du curriculum: Les disciplines retenues dans le curriculum et leur distribution dans la grille-matière (2004). http://www.mels.gouv.qc.ca/reforme/curricu/ecole04.htm. Retrieved 12 Oct 2012
Morency, C., Chapleau, R.: Age and its relation with home location, household structure and travel behaviors: 15 years of observation. Paper presented at the 87th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, 2008
Nolan, A.: A dynamic analysis of household car ownership. Transp. Res. A 44(6), 446–455 (2010)
Regie de l’energie Quebec: Évolution des prix de détail de l’essence ordinaire en 2008 – Région de Montréal. Regie de l’energie Quebec, Quebec (2009)
Ruud, A., Nordbakke, S.: Decreasing driving license rates among young people. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference, Strasbourg, 2005
Scheiner, J.: Housing mobility and travel behaviour: a process-oriented approach to spatial mobility evidence from a new research field in Germany. J. Transp. Geogr. 14(4), 289–298 (2006)
Scheiner, J., Holz-Rau, C.: Changes in travel mode use after residential relocation: a contribution to mobility biographies. Transportation (2012). doi:10.1007/s11116-012-9417-6
Shearmur, R.: Travel from home: an economic geography of commuting distances in Montréal. Urb. Geogr. 27(4), 330–359 (2006)
Simma, A., Axhausen, K.: Commitments and modal usage: analysis of German and Dutch panels. Transp. Res. Rec. 1854, 22–31 (2003)
Simpson, H.: The evolution and effectiveness of graduated licensing. J. Saf. Res. 34(1), 25–34 (2003)
Sperling, D., Gordon, D., Schwarzenegger, A.: Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability. Oxford University Press, Cary NC (2009)
Statistics Canada: 2006 census: census trends—selected trend data for Montreal (CMA), 2006, 2001 and 1996 censuses (2010a). http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/92-596/P1-2.cfm?Lang=eng&T=CMA&PRCODE=24&GEOCODE=462&GEOLVL=CMA&TID=0. Retrieved 13 Apr 2012
Statistics Canada: Gasoline prices, selected cities, 1995 to 2009 (2010b). http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-402-x/2010000/chap/ener/tbl/tbl03-eng.htm. Retrieved 15 May 2012
Statistics Canada: CANSIM table 282-0110: Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by Census Metropolitan Area based on 2006 census boundaries, sex and age group (2012a). http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a05?lang=eng&id=2820110
Statistics Canada: CANSIM table 326-0020 consumer price index, 2009 basket (2012b). http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a05?lang=eng&id=3260020
Statistics Canada: Table 051-0046 estimates of population by metropolitan area, sex, and age group for July 1, based on the standard geographical classification (SGC) 2006 (2012b). http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=0510046&paSer=&pattern=&stByVal=1&p1=1&p2=-1&tabMode=dataTable&csid=
STM: Important dates in STM’s history (2012). http://www.stm.info/english/en-bref/a-dates.htm. Retrieved 16 May 2012
Thakuriah, P., Tang, L., Menchu, S.: Young women’s transportation and labor market experiences. Paper presented at the 4th TRB international conference on women’s issues in transportation, Irvine, 2009
Thakuriah, P., Menchu, S., Tang, L.: Car ownership among young adults: generational and period-specific perspective. Transp. Res. Rec. 2156, 1–8 (2010)
Thogersen, J.: Understanding repetitive travel mode choices in a stable context: a panel study approach. Transp. Res. A 40(8), 621–638 (2006)
Transports Canada: En ville, sans ma voiture (2010a). http://www.tc.gc.ca/fra/programmes/environnement-pdtu-envillesansmavoiture-959.htm. Retrieved 12 Oct 2012
Transports Canada: Sensibilisation et éducation (2010b). http://www.tc.gc.ca/fra/programmes/environnement-pdtu-etudesdecassensibilisation-1072.htm. Retrieved 12 Oct 2012
Trepanier, M., Chapleau, R., Morency, C.: Tools and methods for a transportation household survey. URISA J. 20(1), 35–43 (2008)
Tucotte, M.: Canadian social trends: Young people’s access to home ownership (2008). http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-008-x/2007005/10314-eng.htm
Urban Transportation Task Force: Urban transit in Canada: Taking stock of recent progress (2009). Council of Deputy Ministers Responsible for Transportation and Highway Safety