Toward Assessing NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Credibility for the North American Monsoon: Future Climate Simulations*
Tóm tắt
This study presents climate change results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite of dynamically downscaled simulations for the North American monsoon system in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The focus is on changes in precipitation and the processes driving the projected changes from the regional climate simulations and their driving coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models. The effect of known biases on the projections is also examined. Overall, there is strong ensemble agreement for a large decrease in precipitation during the monsoon season; however, this agreement and the magnitude of the ensemble-mean change is likely deceiving, as the greatest decreases are produced by the simulations that are the most biased in the baseline/current climate. Furthermore, some of the greatest decreases in precipitation are being driven by changes in processes/phenomena that are less credible (e.g., changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation, when it is initially not simulated well). In other simulations, the processes driving the precipitation change may be plausible, but other biases (e.g., biases in low-level moisture or precipitation intensity) appear to be affecting the magnitude of the projected changes. The most and least credible simulations are clearly identified, while the other simulations are mixed in their abilities to produce projections of value.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Anderson, 2004, The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2–LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations, J. Climate, 17, 4641, 10.1175/JCLI-3223.1
Barsugli, 2013, The practitioner’s dilemma: How to assess the credibility of downscaled climate projections, Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 94, 424, 10.1002/2013EO460005
Bukovsky, 2012, Temperature trends in the NARCCAP regional climate models, J. Climate, 25, 3985, 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00588.1
Bukovsky, 2011, A regional modeling study of climate change impacts on warm-season precipitation in the central United States, J. Climate, 24, 1985, 10.1175/2010JCLI3447.1
Bukovsky, 2013, Towards assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American monsoon: Current climate simulations, J. Climate, 26, 8802, 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00538.1
Castro, 2001, The relationship of the North American monsoon to tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperatures as revealed by observational analyses, J. Climate, 14, 4449, 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4449:TROTNA>2.0.CO;2
Castro, 2007, Investigation of the summer climate of the contiguous United States and Mexico using the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS). Part I: Model climatology (1950–2002), J. Climate, 20, 3844, 10.1175/JCLI4211.1
Castro, 2007, Investigation of the summer climate of the contiguous United States and Mexico using the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS). Part II: Model climate variability, J. Climate, 20, 3866, 10.1175/JCLI4212.1
Castro, 2012, Can a regional climate model improve the ability to forecast the North American monsoon?, J. Climate, 25, 8212, 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00441.1
Caya, 1999, A semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian regional climate model: The Canadian RCM, Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 341, 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0341:ASISLR>2.0.CO;2
Christensen, 2007
Collier, 2007, Effects of increased horizontal resolution on simulation of the North American monsoon in the NCAR CAM3: An evaluation based on surface, satellite, and reanalysis data, J. Climate, 20, 1843, 10.1175/JCLI4099.1
Collins, 2005, El Niño- or La Niña-like climate change?, Climate Dyn., 24, 89, 10.1007/s00382-004-0478-x
Collins, 2006, The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), J. Climate, 19, 2122, 10.1175/JCLI3761.1
Cook, 2013, The response of the North American monsoon to increased greenhouse gas forcing, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1690, 10.1002/jgrd.50111
Dominguez, 2010, IPCC-AR4 climate simulations for the southwestern US: The importance of future ENSO projections, Climatic Change, 99, 499, 10.1007/s10584-009-9672-5
Douglas, 1995, The summertime low-level jet over the Gulf of California, Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2334, 10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2334:TSLLJO>2.0.CO;2
Efron, 1993
Flato, 2000, The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate, Climate Dyn., 16, 451, 10.1007/s003820050339
Flato, 2013
Gao, 2012, Moisture flux convergence in regional and global climate models: Implications for droughts in the southwestern United States under climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 10.1029/2012GL051560
Geil, 2013, Assessment of CMIP5 model simulations of the North American monsoon system, J. Climate, 26, 8787, 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00044.1
Giorgi, 1993, Development of a second-generation Regional Climate Model (RegCM2). Part I: Boundary-layer and radiative transfer processes, Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2794, 10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2794:DOASGR>2.0.CO;2
Giorgi, 1993, Development of a second-generation Regional Climate Model (RegCM2). Part II: Convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions, Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2814, 10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2814:DOASGR>2.0.CO;2
Gochis, 2007, Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation intensity as observed by the NAME event rain gauge network from 2002 to 2004, J. Climate, 20, 1734, 10.1175/JCLI4092.1
Gordon, 2000, The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Climate Dyn., 16, 147, 10.1007/s003820050010
Grell, 1993
Griffin, 2013, North American monsoon precipitation reconstructed from tree-ring latewood, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 954, 10.1002/grl.50184
Gutzler, 2009, Simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon: NAMAP2, J. Climate, 22, 6716, 10.1175/2009JCLI3138.1
Hales, 1972, Surges of maritime tropical air northward over the Gulf of California, Mon. Wea. Rev., 100, 298, 10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0298:SOMTAN>2.3.CO;2
Higgins, 2000, Dominant factors responsible for interannual variability of the summer monsoon in the southwestern United States, J. Climate, 13, 759, 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0759:DFRFIV>2.0.CO;2
Higgins, 1997, Influence of the North American monsoon system on the U.S. summer precipitation regime, J. Climate, 10, 2600, 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2600:IOTNAM>2.0.CO;2
Higgins, 1998, Interannual variability of the U.S. summer precipitation regime with emphasis on the southwestern monsoon, J. Climate, 11, 2582, 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2582:IVOTUS>2.0.CO;2
Higgins, 1999, Interannual variability of the North American warm season precipitation regime, J. Climate, 12, 653, 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0653:IVOTNA>2.0.CO;2
Hoerling, 2007, Past peak water in the Southwest, Southwest Hydrol., 18, 18
Johnson, 2007, Multiscale variability of the flow during the North American monsoon experiment, J. Climate, 20, 1628, 10.1175/JCLI4087.1
Jones, 2003
Juang, 1997, The NCEP regional spectral model: An update, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2125, 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2125:TNRSMA>2.0.CO;2
Kanamitsu, 2002, NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631, 10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631
Knutti, 2010
Lang, 2007, Radar-observed characteristics of precipitating systems during NAME 2004, J. Climate, 20, 1713, 10.1175/JCLI4082.1
Lee, 2007, Sensitivity to horizontal resolution in the AGCM simulations of warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation over the United States and northern Mexico, J. Climate, 20, 1862, 10.1175/JCLI4090.1
Lin, 2008, North American monsoon and convectively coupled equatorial waves simulated by IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs, J. Climate, 21, 2919, 10.1175/2007JCLI1815.1
McCrary, 2014, Simulations of the West African monsoon with a superparameterized climate model. Part 2: African easterly waves, J. Climate, 27, 8323, 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00677.1
McKee, 1993
Mearns, 2009, A regional climate change assessment program for North America, Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 90, 311, 10.1029/2009EO360002
Mearns, 2012, The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of phase I results, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1337, 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00223.1
Mearns, 2013, Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), Climatic Change, 120, 965, 10.1007/s10584-013-0831-3
Meehl, 2002, The tropospheric biennial oscillation and Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall, J. Climate, 15, 722, 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0722:TTBOAA>2.0.CO;2
Mesinger, 2006, North American Regional Reanalysis, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 343, 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-343
Milly, 2005, Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate, Nature, 438, 347, 10.1038/nature04312
Mitchell, 2002, Gulf of California sea surface temperatures and the North American monsoon: Mechanistic implications from observations, J. Climate, 15, 2261, 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2261:GOCSST>2.0.CO;2
Mo, 2005, Atmospheric moisture transport over the United States and Mexico as evaluated in the NCEP Regional Reanalysis, J. Hydrometor., 6, 710, 10.1175/JHM452.1
Nakićenović, 2000
Nesbitt, 2008, The diurnal cycle of clouds and precipitation along the Sierra Madre Occidental observed during NAME-2004: Implications for warm season precipitation estimation in complex terrain, J. Hydrometeor., 9, 728, 10.1175/2008JHM939.1
Pal, 2007, Regional climate modeling for the developing world: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1395, 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1395
Pope, 2000, The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3, Climate Dyn., 16, 123, 10.1007/s003820050009
Rummukainen, 2010, State-of-the-art with regional climate models, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change, 1, 82, 10.1002/wcc.8
Schiffer, 2012, Flow, moisture, and thermodynamic variability associated with Gulf of California surges within the North American monsoon, J. Climate, 25, 4220, 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00266.1
Seager, 2007, Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America, Science, 316, 1181, 10.1126/science.1139601
Seth, 2011, Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?, Climatic Change, 104, 403, 10.1007/s10584-010-9973-8
Seth, 2013, CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions, J. Climate, 26, 7328, 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00726.1
Shindell, 2014, Reply to comment by Laprise on “The added value to global model projections of climate change by dynamical downscaling: A case study over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models.”, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 3882, 10.1002/2013JD020732
Skamarock, 2005
Skinner, 2013, The contribution of African easterly waves to monsoon precipitation in the CMIP3 ensemble, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 3590, 10.1002/jgrd.50363
Stensrud, 2013, Upscale effects of deep convection during the North American monsoon, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2681, 10.1175/JAS-D-13-063.1
Stensrud, 1997, Surges over the Gulf of California during the Mexican monsoon, Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 417, 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0417:SOTGOC>2.0.CO;2
Tebaldi, 2011, Mapping model agreement on future climate projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, 10.1029/2011GL049863
Torres-Alavez, 2014, Land–sea thermal contrast and intensity of the North American monsoon under climate change conditions, J. Climate, 27, 4566, 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00557.1
van Oldenborgh, 2005, El Niño in a changing climate: A multi-model study, Ocean Sci., 1, 81, 10.5194/os-1-81-2005
von Storch, 1999