The sources of extreme precipitation predictability; the case of the ‘Wet’ Red Sea Trough
Tài liệu tham khảo
Alexander, 2020, Intercomparison of annual precipitation indices and extremes over global land areas from in situ, space-based and reanalysis products, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab79e2
Alexander, 2015, The World climate research Program grand challenge on extremes – WCRP-ICTP summer school on attribution and prediction of extreme events, Weather Clim. Extrem., 9, 1
Alley, 2019, Advances in weather prediction, Science, 363, 342, 10.1126/science.aav7274
Al-Mutairi, 2019, On the effect of Red Sea and topography on rainfall over Saudi arabia: case study, Atmosphere, 10, 669, 10.3390/atmos10110669
Alpert, 2004, Semi-objective classification for daily synoptic systems: application to the Eastern Mediterranean climate change, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1001, 10.1002/joc.1036
Armon, 2019, Overview of modern atmospheric patterns controlling rainfall and floods into the Dead Sea: implications for the lake's sedimentology and paleohydrology, Quat. Sci. Rev., 216, 58, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.06.005
Ashbel, 1938, Great floods in Sinai Peninsula, Palestine, Syria and the Syrian Desert, and the influence of the red sea on their formation, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 64, 635, 10.1002/qj.49706427716
Athar, 2014, Surface temperature forecast skill comparison for the west coast of Saudi Arabia, Atmósfera, 27, 287, 10.1016/S0187-6236(14)71117-8
Awad, 2016, Climatology of the winter Red Sea Trough, Atmos. Res., 182, 20, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.07.019
Berkovic, 2021, Self-organizing map classification of the boundary layer profile: a refinement of Eastern Mediterranean winter synoptic regimes, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 3317, 10.1002/joc.7021
Berkovic, 2022, Persistent warm and dry extremes over the eastern Mediterranean during winter: the role of North Atlantic blocking and central Mediterranean cyclones, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 148, 2384, 10.1002/qj.4308
Brunetti, 2019, Co-existing climate attractors in a coupled aqua-planet, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6293, 10.1007/s00382-019-04926-7
David-Novak, 2004, Modern extreme storms and the rainfall thresholds for initiating debris flows on the hyperarid western escarpment of the Dead Sea, Israel, GSA Bulletin, 116, 718, 10.1130/B25403.2
Dayan, 2015, Review Article: atmospheric conditions inducing extreme precipitation over the eastern and western Mediterranean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2525, 10.5194/nhess-15-2525-2015
De Luca, 2020, Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America, Quarterly J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1636, 10.1002/qj.3757
De Vries, 2013, Extreme precipitation events in the Middle East: dynamics of the active Red Sea Trough, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 7087, 10.1002/jgrd.50569
Dinku, 2018, Validation of the CHIRPS satellite rainfall estimates over eastern Africa, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 292, 10.1002/qj.3244
El Fandy, 1948, The effect of the Sudan monsoon low on the development of thundery conditions in Egypt, Palestine and Syria, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 31, 10.1002/qj.49707431904
Faranda, 2019, Attractor dimension of time-averaged climate observables: insights from a low-order ocean-atmosphere model, Tellus, 71
Faranda, 2017, Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes, Sci. Rep., 7, 10.1038/srep41278
Funk, 2015, The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes, Sci. Data, 2, 10.1038/sdata.2015.66
Gasch, 2017, Revealing the meteorological drivers of the September 2015 severe dust event in the Eastern Mediterranean, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13573, 10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017
Hersbach, 2020, The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999, 10.1002/qj.3803
Hochman, 2019, A new dynamical systems perspective on atmospheric predictability: eastern Mediterranean weather regimes as a case study, Sci. Adv., 5, aau0936, 10.1126/sciadv.aau0936
Hochman, 2022, Greater climate sensitivity and variability on TRAPPIST-1e than Earth, Astrophys. J., 938, 114, 10.3847/1538-4357/ac866f
Hochman, 2018, Synoptic classification in 21st century CMIP5 predictions over the Eastern Mediterranean with focus on cyclones, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 1476, 10.1002/joc.5260
Hochman, 2022, Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749, 10.5194/esd-13-749-2022
Hochman, 2021, Do Atlantic-European weather regimes physically exist?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, 10.1029/2021GL095574
Hochman, 2021, Changes in the characteristics of ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ Red Sea Trough over the eastern mediterranean in CMIP5 climate projections, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 143, 781, 10.1007/s00704-020-03449-0
Hochman, 2021, A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133, 10.5194/esd-12-133-2021
Hochman, 2022, Dynamics and predictability of cold spells over the Eastern Mediterranean, Clim. Dynam., 58, 2047, 10.1007/s00382-020-05465-2
Khodayar, 2022, What causes a heavy precipitation period to become extreme? The exceptional October of 2018 in the Western Mediterranean, Weather Clim. Extrem., 38
Kidd, 2011, Status of satellite precipitation retrievals, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1109, 10.5194/hess-15-1109-2011
Krichak, 1997, Interaction of topography and atmospheric flow – a possible generator of the Red Sea Trough?, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 63, 149, 10.1007/BF01027381
Krichak, 2012, A conceptual model for the identification of Active Red Sea Trough synoptic events over the south-eastern Mediterranean, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 51, 962, 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0223.1
Lorenz, 1963, Deterministic nonperiodic flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130, 10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2
Lucarini, 2016, Extremes and recurrence in dynamical systems
Lucarini, 2012, Universal behavior of extreme value statistics for selected observables of dynamical systems, J. Stat. Phys., 147, 63, 10.1007/s10955-012-0468-z
Ludwig, 2022, Last glacial maximum hydro-climate and cyclone characteristics in the Levant: a regional modelling perspective, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 10.1088/1748-9326/ac46ea
Marra, 2022, Changes in extreme daily precipitation over Africa: insights from a non-asymptotic statistical approach, J. Hydrol. X, 16
Messori, 2017, A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3346, 10.1002/2017GL072879
Palmer, 2000, Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate, Rep. Prog. Phys., 63, 71, 10.1088/0034-4885/63/2/201
Pons, 2020, Sampling hyperspheres via extreme value theory: implications for measuring attractor dimensions, J. Stat. Phys., 179, 1698, 10.1007/s10955-020-02573-5
Raveh-Rubin, 2016, Large-scale wind and precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean: dynamical aspects of five selected cyclone events, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 3097, 10.1002/qj.2891
Rodrigues, 2018, Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2c reanalysis, J. Clim., 31, 6097, 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1
Saaroni, 2019, Automatic identification and classification of the northern part of the Red Sea Trough and its application to climatological analysis, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 3607, 10.1002/joc.6416
Satgé, 2020, Evaluation of 23 gridded precipitation datasets across West Africa, J. Hydrol., 581, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124412
Sodemann, 2008, Interannual variability of Greenland winter precipitation sources: Lagrangian moisture diagnostic and North Atlantic Oscillation influence, J. Geophys. Res., 13, 10.1029/2007JD008503
Sprenger, 2015, vol. 8, 2569
Süveges, 2007, Likelihood estimation of the extremal index, Extremes, 10, 41, 10.1007/s10687-007-0034-2
Tsvieli, 2005, Synoptic climatological analysis of ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ Red Sea Troughs over Israel, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1997, 10.1002/joc.1232
Wedler, 2023, More frequent, persistent, and deadly heat waves in the 21st century over the Eastern Mediterranean, Sci.Total Environ., 870, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161883
Wernli, 1997, A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical cyclones. I: the method and some applications, Quartely J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 123, 467, 10.1002/qj.49712353811
Ziv, 2022, Formation of cyclones over the east mediterranean within red-Sea Troughs, Int. J. Climatol., 42, 577, 10.1002/joc.7261
Ziv, 2022, Identification and classification of the wet Red Sea Trough over Israel, Int. J. Climatol., 1