The role of targeted climate research at the IRI
Tóm tắt
Advances in our fundamental understanding of the physical climate system provided the necessary scientific underpinnings for the routine production of reliable seasonal climate forecasts and ultimately, the birth of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). While recognizing that the successful adoption of climate information into various decision-making settings requires an iterative approach between the developers and users of that information, since its inception the IRI has also recognized the critical role of basic climate research in generating new climate knowledge. Given its mission, such basic research targets specific regions and questions that are framed by practical considerations of how climate variations are impacting, or may impact, various sectors of society. Analogous to its role in underpinning the development of seasonal forecasts, an enhanced understanding of relevant aspects of the physical climate is viewed as a critical input to the larger process of developing effective strategies for the management of climate-related risks. Here, four examples of targeted climate research undertaken at the IRI are presented covering a range of time scales, from sub-seasonal variability to long-term climate trends. A diverse set of geographic locations is considered, which includes the Sahel, southeastern South America, the Philippines and Indonesia. These four examples were selected to indicate the broad range of use-inspired basic research questions that have been addressed in regions where the IRI is engaged in a broader set of activities to develop actionable climate information. While many institutions are engaged in basic climate research, having the expertise and capacity to do so within the IRI provides it with the necessary flexibility to target its work towards specific climate-related questions in specific regions of the world.
Tài liệu tham khảo
ACMAD: Proceedings of First Forum on Seasonal Forecasting, October 1998. Abidjan: World Meteorological Organization; 1998. WMO/TD No. 927, pp 210
Bader J, Latif M: The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 2003, 30: 2169. doi:10.1029/2003GL018426, 22 doi:10.1029/2003GL018426, 22
Barnston AG, Tippett MK: Climate information, outlooks, and understanding–where does the IRI stand? Earth Perspect 2014, 1: 20. 10.1186/2194-6434-1-20
Barnston AG, Li S, Mason SJ, DeWitt DG, Goddard L, Gong X: Verification of the first 11 years of IRI’s seasonal climate forecasts. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 2010, 49: 493–520. 10.1175/2009JAMC2325.1
Barros VR, Doyle ME, Camilloni IA: Precipitation trends in southeastern south America: relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation. Theor Appl Climatol 2008, 93: 19–33. 10.1007/s00704-007-0329-x
Biasutti M, Giannini A: Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings. Geophys Res Lett 2006., 33: L11706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026067 L11706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026067
Biasutti M, Held IM, Sobel AH, Giannini A: SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries. J Clim 2008, 21: 3471–3486. doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1896.1 doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1896.1 10.1175/2007JCLI1896.1
Camargo SJ, Sobel AH: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Clim 2005, 18: 2996–3006. 10.1175/JCLI3457.1
Camargo SJ, Robertson AW, Gaffney SJ, Smyth P, Ghil M: Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part II: large-scale circulation and ENSO. J Clim 2007, 20: 3654–3676. 10.1175/JCLI4203.1
Camargo SJ, Emanuel KA, Sobel AH: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J Clim 2007, 20: 4819–4834. 10.1175/JCLI4282.1
Ceccato P, Nengah Surati Jaya I, Qian JH, Tippett MK, Robertson AW, Someshwar S: Early warning and response to fires in Kalimantan, Indonesia. IRI Technical Report, TR10–14 2010, 22.
Chan JCL: Tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific in relation to El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon Weather Rev 1985, 113: 599–606. 10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0599:TCAITN>2.0.CO;2
Chan SC, Behera SK, Yamagata T: Indian Ocean Dipole influence on South American rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 2008, 35: L14S12. doi:10.1029/2008GL034204 doi:10.1029/2008GL034204
Chang C-Y, Chiang JCH, Wehner MF, Friedman AR, Ruedy R: Sulfate aerosol control of Tropical Atlantic climate over the 20th century. J Clim 2011, 24: 2540–2555. 10.1175/2010JCLI4065.1
Charney J: Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 1975, 101: 193–202. 10.1002/qj.49710142802
Chen T-C, Weng S-P, Yamazaki N, Kiehne S: Interannual variation in the tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 1998, 126: 1080–1090. 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1080:IVITTC>2.0.CO;2
Chia HH, Ropelewski CF: The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. J Clim 2002, 15: 2934–2944. 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2934:TIVITG>2.0.CO;2
Diarra D, Dibi-Kangah P: Agriculture in Mali. In: Climate risk management in Africa: learning from practice. 2007. In Climate and Society No.1. Edited by: Hellmuth ME, Moorhead A, Thomson MC, Williams J. New York, USA: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University; 2007.
Emanuel KA, Nolan DS: Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2004, 85: 666–667.
Folland CK, Palmer TN, Parker DE: Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures. Nature 1986, 320: 602–607. 1901–85 1901–85 10.1038/320602a0
Folland C, Owen JM, Ward MN, Colman A: Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel region using empirical and dynamical methods. J Forecasting 1991, 10: 21–56. 10.1002/for.3980100104
Giannini A: Mechanisms of climate change in the semi-arid African Sahel: the local view. J Clim 2010, 23: 743–756. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3123.1 doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3123.1 10.1175/2009JCLI3123.1
Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P: Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal timescales. Science 2003, 302: 1027–1030. Published online 9 October 2003. doi:10.1126/science.108935 Published online 9 October 2003. doi:10.1126/science.108935 10.1126/science.1089357
Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P: Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model. Clim Dynam 2005, 25: 517–535. doi:10.1007/s00382–005–0056-x doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0056-x 10.1007/s00382-005-0056-x
Giannini A, Robertson AW, Qian J-H: A role for tropical tropospheric temperature adjustment to El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the seasonality of monsoonal Indonesia precipitation predictability. J Geophys Res 2007, 112: D16110. doi:10.1029/2007JD008519 doi:10.1029/2007JD008519
Giannini A, Biasutti M, Verstraete MM: A climate model-based review of drought in the Sahel: desertification, the re-greening and climate change. Global Planetary Change 2008, 64: 119–128. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.05.004 doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.05.004 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.05.004
Giannini A, Salack S, Lodoun T, Ali A, Gaye AT, Ndiaye O: A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales. Environ Res Lett 2013, 8: 024010. doi:10.1088/1748–9326/8/2/024010 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024010 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024010
Giorgi F, Pal JS, Bi X, Sloan L, Elguindi N, Solmon F: The RegCNET network. Theor Appl Climatol 2006, 86: 1–4. 10.1007/s00704-005-0199-z
Goddard L, Mason SJ: Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies. Clim Dynam 2002, 19: 619–632. doi:10.1007/s00382–002–0251-y doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0251-y 10.1007/s00382-002-0251-y
Goddard L, Baethgen WE, Bhojwani H, Robertson AW: The International Research Institute for Climate & Society: why, what and how. Earth Perspect 2014, 1: 10. 10.1186/2194-6434-1-10
Gonzalez PLM, Goddard L, Greene AM: Twentieth-Century summer precipitation in South Eastern South America: comparison of gridded and station data. Int J Climatol 2012. doi:10.1002/joc.3633 doi:10.1002/joc.3633
Gonzalez PLM, Polvani LM, Seager R, Correa GJP: Stratospheric ozone depletion: a key driver of recent precipitation trends in South Eastern South America. Clim Dynam 2013. doi:10.1007/s00382–013–1777-x doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1777-x
Greene AM, Giannini A, Zebiak SE: Drought return times in the Sahel: a question of attribution. Geophys Res Lett 2009, 36: L12701. doi:10.1029/2009GL038868, 2009 doi:10.1029/2009GL038868, 2009
Greene AM, Goddard L, Cousin R: Web tool deconstructs variability in twentieth-century climate. EOS Trans AGU 2011, 245: 397–398.
Greene AM, Hellmuth M, Lumsden T: Stochastic decadal climate simulations for the Berg and Breede water management areas, western Cape province, South Africa. Water Resour Res 2012. doi:10.1029/2011WR011152 doi:10.1029/2011WR011152
Hansen JW, Mason SJ, Sun L, Tall A: Review of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. Exp Agr 2011, 47: 205–240. 10.1017/S0014479710000876
Haylock MR, Peterson TC, Alves LM, Ambrizzi T, Anunciacão YMT, Baez J, Barros VR, Berlato MA, Bidegain M, Coronel G, Corradi V, Garcia VJ, Grimm AM, Karoly D, Marengo JA, Marino MB, Moncunill DF, Nechet D, Quintana J, Rebello E, Rusticucci M, Santos JL, Trebejo I, Vincent LA: In total and extreme South American rainfall in 1960–2000 and links with sea surface temperature. J Clim 2006, 19: 1490–1512. 10.1175/JCLI3695.1
Held I, Soden B: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 2006, 19: 5686–5699. 10.1175/JCLI3990.1
Hendon HH: Indonesian rainfall variability: impacts of ENSO and local air–sea interaction. J Clim 2003, 16: 1775–1790. 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<1775:IRVIOE>2.0.CO;2
Juneng L, Tangang FT: Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in Southeast Asia region and its relationship with atmosphere–ocean variations in Indo-Pacific sector. Clim Dynam 2005, 25: 337–350. 10.1007/s00382-005-0031-6
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Wollen J, Zhu Y, Leetma A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski CF, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 1996, 77: 437–471. 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
Kang SM, Polvani LM, Fyfe JC, Sigmond M: Impact of polar ozone depletion on subtropical precipitation. Science 2011, 332: 951–954. 10.1126/science.1202131
Kiladis GN, Diaz HF: Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J Clim 1989, 2: 1069–1090. 10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1069:GCAAWE>2.0.CO;2
Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A: Rainfall variability over South-East Asia – connections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: new perspectives. Int J Climatol 1997, 17: 1155–1168. 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199709)17:11<1155::AID-JOC188>3.0.CO;2-B
Liebmann B, Vera CS, Carvalho LMV, Camilloni IA, Hoerling MP, Allured D, Barros VR, Báez J, Bidegain M: An observed trend in central south American precipitation. J Clim 2004, 17: 4357–4367. doi:10.1175/3205.1 doi:10.1175/3205.1 10.1175/3205.1
Lu J, Delworth TL: Oceanic forcing of late 20th century Sahel drought. Geophys Res Lett 2005., 32: L22706, doi:10.1029/2005GL023316 L22706, doi:10.1029/2005GL023316
Lyon B: The strength of El Nino and the spatial extent of tropical drought. Geophys Res Lett 2004., 31: L21204 L21204
Lyon B, Barnston AG: ENSO and the spatial extent of interannual precipitation extremes in tropical land areas. J Clim 2005, 18: 5095–5109. 10.1175/JCLI3598.1
Lyon B, Camargo SJ: The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines. Clim Dynam 2009, 32: 125–141. 10.1007/s00382-008-0380-z
Lyon B, Cristi H, Verceles ER, Hilario FD, Abastillas R: Seasonal reversal of the ENSO rainfall signal in the Philippines. Geophys Res Lett 2006., 33: L24710, doi:10.1029/2006GL028182 L24710, doi:10.1029/2006GL028182
Moron V, Robertson AW, Ward MN: Seasonal predictability and spatial coherence of rainfall characteristics in the tropical setting of Senegal. Mon Weather Rev 2006, 134: 3246–3260.
Moron V, Robertson AW, Ward MN: Spatial Coherence of tropical rainfall at Regional Scale. J Clim 2007, 20: 5244–5263. 10.1175/2007JCLI1623.1
Moron V, Robertson AW, Ward MN, Ndiaye O: Weather types and rainfall over senegal. Part I: observational analysis. J Clim 2008, 21: 266–287. 10.1175/2007JCLI1601.1
Moron V, Robertson AW, Ward MN, Ndiaye O: Weather types and rainfall in senegal. Part II: downscaling of GCM simulations. J Clim 2008, 21: 288–307. 10.1175/2007JCLI1624.1
Moron V, Robertson AW, Boer R: Spatial coherence and seasonal predictability of monsoon onset over Indonesia. J Clim 2009, 22: 840–850. 10.1175/2008JCLI2435.1
Ndiaye O, Goddard L, Ward MN: Using regional wind fields to improve general circulation model forecasts of July-September Sahel rainfall. Int J Climatol 2008, 29: 1262–1275. doi:10.1002/joc.1767 doi:10.1002/joc.1767
Ndiaye O, Ward MN, Thiaw WM: Predictability of seasonal Sahel rainfall using GCMs and lead-time improvements through the use of a coupled model. J Clim 2011, 24: 1931–1949. 10.1175/2010JCLI3557.1
Neelin JD, Chou C, Su H: Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Niño teleconnections. Geophys Res Lett 2003, 30: 2275. doi:10.1029/2003GL0018625 doi:10.1029/2003GL0018625
Palmer TN: Influence of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans on Sahel rainfall. Nature 1986, 322: 251–253. 10.1038/322251a0
Qian J-H, Robertson AW, Moron V: Interactions between ENSO, monsoon and diurnal cycle in rainfall variability over java. Indonesia J Atmos Sci 2010, 67: 3509–3523. 10.1175/2010JAS3348.1
Qian J-H, Robertson AW, Moron V: Diurnal cycle in different weather regimes and rainfall variability over Borneo associated with ENSO. J Clim 2013, 26: 1772–1790. 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00178.1
Reij C, Tappan G, Belemvire A: Changing land management practices and vegetation on the central plateau of Burkina Faso (1968–2002). J Arid Environ 2005, 63: 642–659. 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.03.010
Robertson AW, Moron V, Swarinoto Y: Seasonal predictability of daily rainfall statistics over Indramayu district, Indonesia. Int J Climatol 2009, 29: 1449–1462. 10.1002/joc.1816
Robertson AW, Baethgen W, Block P, Lall U, Sankarasubramanian A, De Assis De Souza Filho F, Verbist K: Climate risk management for water in semi-arid regions. Earth Perspect 2014, 1: 12. 10.1186/2194-6434-1-12
Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS: Quantifying southern oscillation precipitation relationships. J Clim 1996, 9: 1043–1959. 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1043:QSOPR>2.0.CO;2
Rotstayn L, Lohmann U: Tropical rainfall trends and the indirect aerosol effect. J Clim 2002, 15: 2103–2116. 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2103:TRTATI>2.0.CO;2
Rowell DP: Reply to comments by Sud YC, and Lau WK-M on variability of summer rainfall over tropical North Africa (1906–92): observations and modeling by Rowell DP, Folland CK, Maskell K, and Ward MN (april a, 1995, 121, 669–704). Q J R Meteorol Soc 1996, 122: 1007–1013.
Rowell DP, Folland CK, Maskell K, Ward MN: Variability of summer rainfall over tropical North Africa (1906–92): observations and modeling. Q J R Meteorol Soc 1995, 121: 669–704.
Saunders MA, Chandler RE, Merchant CJ, Roberts FP: Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall. Geophys Res Lett 2000, 27: 1147–1150. 10.1029/1999GL010948
Seager R, Naik N, Baethgen W, Robertson AW, Kushnir Y, Nakamura J, Jurburg S: Tropical oceanic causes of interannual to multidecadal precipitation variability in southeast south America over the past century. J Clim 2010, 23: 5517–5539. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3578.1 doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3578.1 10.1175/2010JCLI3578.1
Silvestri G, Vera C: Antarctic oscillation signal on precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America. Geophys Res Lett 2003, 30: 2115. doi:10.1029/2003GL018277 doi:10.1029/2003GL018277
Tippett MK, Giannini A: Potentially predictable components of African summer rainfall in an SST-forced GCM simulation. J Clim 2006, 19: 3133–3144. 10.1175/JCLI3779.1
Viglizzo E, Frank FC: Ecological interactions, feedbacks, thresholds and collapses in the Argentine Pampas in response to climate and farming during the last century. Quat Int 2006, 158: 122–126. 10.1016/j.quaint.2006.05.022
Walker GT, Bliss EW: World weather V. Mem R Meteorol Soc 1932, 4: 53–84.
Wang B, Chan JCL: How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim 2002, 15: 1643–1658. 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1643:HSEEAT>2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Zhang Q: Pacific– east Asian teleconnection: Part II. How the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Niño development. J Clim 2002, 15: 3252–3265. 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3252:PEATPI>2.0.CO;2
Zhou J, Lau K: Principal modes of interannual and decadal variability of summer rainfall over South America. Int J Climatol 2001, 21: 1623–1644. 10.1002/joc.700