Các đường đi tập trung đại diện: Tổng quan

Climatic Change - Tập 109 - Trang 5-31 - 2011
Detlef P. van Vuuren1,2, Jae Edmonds3, Mikiko Kainuma4, Keywan Riahi5, Allison Thomson3, Kathy Hibbard6, George C. Hurtt3,7, Tom Kram1, Volker Krey5, Jean-Francois Lamarque8, Toshihiko Masui4, Malte Meinshausen9, Nebojsa Nakicenovic5,10, Steven J. Smith3, Steven K. Rose11
1PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands
2Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
3Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, College Park, USA
4National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan
5International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
6Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, Richland, USA
7Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park USA
8Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
9Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
10Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria
11Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, USA

Tóm tắt

Bài báo này tóm tắt quá trình phát triển và các đặc điểm chính của các Đường đi Tập trung Đại diện (Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), một bộ bốn đoạn đường mới được phát triển cho cộng đồng mô hình khí hậu như cơ sở cho các thí nghiệm mô hình dài hạn và ngắn hạn. Bốn RCP này bao gồm toàn bộ phạm vi giá trị tác động bức xạ năm 2100 được tìm thấy trong tài liệu mở, từ 2.6 đến 8.5 W/m2. RCP là sản phẩm của một sự hợp tác đổi mới giữa các nhà mô hình đánh giá tích hợp, nhà mô hình khí hậu, nhà mô hình hệ sinh thái trên cạn và các chuyên gia kiểm kê phát thải. Sản phẩm thu được hình thành một tập hợp dữ liệu toàn diện với độ phân giải không gian và lĩnh vực cao cho giai đoạn kéo dài đến năm 2100. Việc sử dụng đất và phát thải khí ô nhiễm và khí nhà kính chủ yếu được báo cáo với độ phân giải không gian 0.5 × 0.5 độ, với các khí ô nhiễm cũng được cung cấp theo lĩnh vực (đối với các khí trộn lẫn, một độ phân giải thô hơn được sử dụng). Các đầu ra của mô hình đánh giá tích hợp cơ bản về việc sử dụng đất, phát thải khí quyển và dữ liệu nồng độ đã được hài hòa giữa các mô hình và kịch bản nhằm đảm bảo tính nhất quán với các quan sát lịch sử trong khi vẫn bảo tồn xu hướng kịch bản riêng lẻ. Đối với hầu hết các biến, các RCP bao phủ một phạm vi rộng các tài liệu hiện có. Các RCP được bổ sung bằng các mở rộng (Đường đi Tập trung Mở rộng, ECPs), cho phép các thí nghiệm mô hình khí hậu kéo dài đến năm 2300. RCP là một phát triển quan trọng trong nghiên cứu khí hậu và cung cấp một nền tảng tiềm năng cho nghiên cứu và đánh giá thêm, bao gồm giảm thiểu phát thải và phân tích tác động.

Từ khóa

#Đường đi tập trung đại diện #mô hình khí hậu #phát thải khí nhà kính #nghiên cứu khí hậu

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