The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture

Agricultural Economics - Tập 27 Số 1 - Trang 51-64 - 2002
Ching‐Cheng Chang1,2
1Department of Agricultural Economics, National Taiwan University, Taipei 106, Taiwan, ROC
2Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, No. 128, Yen-Chiou Yuan Road, Section 2, Nankang, Taipei 115, Taiwan, ROC

Tóm tắt

AbstractThis paper intends to estimate the potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agricultural sector. Yield response regression models are used to investigate the climate change's impact on 60 crops. A price‐endogenous mathematical programming model is then used to simulate the welfare impacts of yield changes under various climate change scenarios. Results suggest that both warming and climate variations have a significant but non‐monotonic impact on crop yields. Society as a whole would not suffer from warming, but a precipitation increase may be devastating to farmers.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1038/345219a0

10.1007/BF01091839

10.3354/cr011019

10.1017/CBO9780511573149.002

10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<0048:POCLCY>2.0.CO;2

10.1007/BF01045896

10.1007/BF01045897

Baumes H. 1978.A partial equilibrium sector model of US agriculture open to trade: a domestic agricultural and agricultural trade policy analysis.Ph.D. thesis Purdue University.

10.2307/1349388

10.2307/1242988

Chang C.C., 1995, The impact of agricultural protective policies and technological changes on welfare distribution in Taiwan, J. Land Bank Taiwan, 32, 67

Chang C.C. 1999.The carbon sequestration cost by afforestation in Taiwan.Environmental Economics and Policy Studies. in preparation.

Cheng C.P., 1975, Natural and technological factors contributing to multiple‐crop diversification in Taiwan, Philippine Econ. J., 14, 47

10.2307/1349605

Darwin R. Tsigas M. Lewandrowski J. Raneses A. 1995.World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptation. Report No. AER‐709 US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service Washington DC.

Dixon B.L., 1994, Estimating corn yield response models to predict impacts of climate change, J. Agric. Res. Econ., 19, 58

10.1007/BF01091476

Horie T., 1991, Proceedings of Climate Variations and Change: Implications for Agriculture in the Pacific Rim, 159

IPCC, 1996, Climate Change 1995: The IPCC Second Assessment Report, 427

10.2307/1242923

10.1007/BF00143251

10.2307/1243952

Kmenta J., 1986, Elements of Econometrics

LinC.F. Tsai C.H. 1994.The Statistics and Graphical Summary of the Soil Conditions and Proper Cropping Systems in Taiwan's Cultivated Land. Council of Agriculture Taipei Taiwan ROC.

Lin Y.I. 1996.The impacts of greenhouse gas emission policy instruments on agricultural sector.Master thesis Department of Agricultural Economics National Taiwan University.

10.1007/978-3-642-85193-3_29

10.2307/1239475

Mendelsohn R., 1994, The impacts of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis, Am. Econ. Rev., 84, 753

10.1016/0168-1923(95)02316-X

10.1017/CBO9780511573149.003

10.2307/1243242

Reilly J. 1999.Climate change—can agriculture adapt? Choices. First Quarter pp.4–8.

Ritchie J. Singh U. Goodwin D. Hunt L. 1989.A User's Guide to CERES‐Maize Vol. 2.10. Michigan State University‐IFDC‐IBSNAT Muscle Shoals AL.

Rosenzweig C. IglesiasA. (Eds.) 1994.Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modeling Study. EPA 230‐B‐94‐003 US EPA Office of Policy Planning and Evaluation Climate Change Division Adaptation Branch Washington DC.

Rosenzweig C., 1994, Potential impacts of climate change on world food supply, Nature, 13, 133, 10.1038/367133a0

Samuelson P.A., 1952, Spatial price equilibrium and linear programming, Am. Econ. Rev., 42, 283

10.1017/CBO9780511573149.004

Shaw D., 1994, The Impact of Climate Variation on Agriculture

Smith J.B., 1996, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Synthesis of Results from the US Country Study Program, 10.1007/978-94-017-3653-4

10.2307/1910175

10.2307/1349446

Wu H., 1996, The Economics of Pollution Control in the Asia Pacific